News From The Grain Floor 5/29/15

Today is month end

Weather Highlights

  • Weekend Showers Aid E. Midwest, NW Otherwise Favored Next 10 Days
  • Wet Next 2 Days, Downturn in S. Plains Rain in First 1/2 of June
  • Similar to Drier NE Ukraine/S. Russia Wheat, Heat Builds Late Next Week

Overnight closes

  • SN up a ¼ at 926 ¼
  • CN up 2 ½ at 356
  • WN down 2 ¾ at 486
  • KC WN down 2 ¼ at 508
  • MWN down 1 ½ at 545 ½
  • SMN down 1.10 at 303.70
  • BON up 11 at 3217

Overnight volume

  • SN 7,279
  • CN 11,167
  • WN 7,988
  • KC WN 1,081
  • MWN 288
  • SMN 4,049
  • BON 6,975

Overnight Option Volume

  • Corn 2,035
  • Beans 839
  • Meal 154
  • Bean oil 836
  • Wheat 437

Total EOO’s cleared from previous session

Contract Year Month

Product Desc

P/C Ind

Strike Price

Ex Pit Volume – CME Group

201507

CHICAGO SRW WHEAT OPTIONS P

490

530

201507

CORN OPTIONS C

400

379

201507

CORN OPTIONS P

400

206

201507

CHICAGO SRW WHEAT OPTIONS C

520

175

201507

CHICAGO SRW WHEAT OPTIONS P

500

128

201507

CHICAGO SRW WHEAT OPTIONS C

510

98

201507

CHICAGO SRW WHEAT OPTIONS P

520

64

201507

CORN OPTIONS C

390

55

201509

CHICAGO SRW WHEAT OPTIONS P

510

26

201507

CORN OPTIONS P

390

20

201509

CHICAGO SRW WHEAT OPTIONS P

500

19

201509

CHICAGO SRW WHEAT OPTIONS P

520

17

201507

CHICAGO SRW WHEAT OPTIONS C

500

14

201507

CHICAGO SRW WHEAT OPTIONS P

530

14

201507

CHICAGO SRW WHEAT OPTIONS P

510

7

201507

CHICAGO SRW WHEAT OPTIONS C

490

4

Funds

COT

COT

COT

Current

12-May

19-May

to COT

20-May

21-May

22-May

26-May

27-May

28-May

Estimate

Corn

-156888

-176942

-20054

-7000

10000

-8000

-8000

-11000

8000

-192942

Wheat

-105055

-84633

20422

4000

6000

-5000

-11000

-4000

1000

-93633

Soybeans

-34067

-81503

-47436

-5000

-4000

-8000

0

4000

-2000

-96503

Soymeal

-15047

-13044

2003

-2000

-500

-2000

-2000

4000

-4000

-19544

Soyoil

45447

46901

1454

500

500

-5000

4000

-3000

2000

45901

News

Dollar , crude, gold, and silver higher. Stock market lower

Nikkei up .06%

Hang Seng down .1%

Shanghai Index down .2%

China grain markets closings = beans down 21, corn up 8, meal down 4, palm oil up 8, and bean oil down 8.

Malaysian palm oil closed up 9.

Indonesia keeps palm oil export tax at 0% in June

Russia’s Deputy Prime Minister estimated Russia’s ‘15/16 grain exports at 25-27 MMT

Russia’s Deputy Prime Minister estimated Russia’s ‘15/16 grain crop at 95-100 MMT

FranceAgriMer weekly French crop report as of May 25th

  • Soft wheat crop condition = 91% good to excellent unchanged from a week ago and vs. 75% a year ago
  • Winter barley condition = 89% good to excellent down 1% from  a week ago and vs. 74% a year ago
  • Spring barley conditions = 93% good to excellent down 2% from a week ago and vs. 70% a year ago
  • Corn condition = 88% good to excellent down 2% from a week ago and unchanged from a year ago .

2nd day of Rogers roll , ends Monday . They are rolling long July positions forward.

Weekly US export sales report:

  • Wheat = ‘14/15 42,500 ‘15/16 253,600 (expecting 25 -400,000 tons)
  • Corn = ‘14/15 654,600 ‘15/16 -6,700 (expecting 650,000 -1.05 million tons)
  • Beans = ‘14/15 322,400 ‘15/16 55,100 (expecting 250 -600,000 tons)
  • Meal = ‘14/15 123,700 ‘15/16 120,300 (expecting 125 -325,000 tons)
  • Bean oil = ‘14/15 9,200   (expecting 0 -15,000 tons)

Export highlights:

  • Wheat – Net sales of 42,500 metric tons for delivery in marketing year 2014/2015 were down 43 percent from the previous week and down noticeably from the prior 4-week average.  Increases were reported for Guatemala (28,800 MT, including 25,700 MT switched from unknown destinations), the Philippines (27,300 MT), El Salvador (7,200 MT, including 5,700 MT switched from unknown destinations), China (5,400 MT), Jamaica (3,900 MT, including 6,700 MT switched from Barbados and decreases of 2,800 MT), and Thailand (3,500 MT).   Decreases were reported for unknown destinations (34,600 MT), Barbados (6,700 MT), and Nigeria (1,900 MT).  Net sales of 253,600 MT for 2015/2016 were primarily for Taiwan (102,000 MT), Mexico (59,200 MT), Japan (54,800 MT), and Panama (25,000 MT).  Exports of 494,100 MT were up 34 percent from the previous week and 27 percent from the prior 4-week average.  The primary destinations were Thailand (89,200 MT), the Philippines (87,300 MT), China (62,700 MT), Mexico (51,000 MT), Japan (46,800 MT), Guatemala (35,500 MT), and Nigeria (30,600 MT, late reporting).
  • Corn – Net sales of 654,600 MT for delivery in 2014/2015 were down 19 percent from the previous week and 8 percent from the prior 4-week average.  Increases were reported for Japan (211,100 MT), Saudi Arabia (158,700 MT), Mexico (90,600 MT), Colombia (50,900 MT, including 35,000 MT switched from unknown destinations), China (46,000 MT), and Egypt (45,000 MT).  Decreases were reported for unknown destinations (42,800 MT) and the Dominican Republic (7,300 MT).  Net sales reductions of 6,700 MT for 2015/2016 resulted as increases for unknown destinations (50,800 MT) and Costa Rica (500 MT), were more than offset by decreases for China (58,000 MT).  Exports of 1,070,800 MT were down 1 percent from the previous week and 7 percent from the prior 4-week average.  The primary destinations were Japan (393,100 MT), Mexico (231,400 MT), Colombia (130,900 MT), South Korea (115,200 MT), Honduras (45,700 MT, including 13,500 MT late reporting), and the Dominican Republic (34,000 MT).
  • Beans – Net sales of 322,400 MT for 2014/2015 were up noticeably from the previous week and up 28 percent from the prior 4-week average.  Increases were reported for China (198,000 MT, including 66,000 MT switched from unknown destinations), the Netherlands (85,700 MT, including 78,000 MT switched from unknown destinations), Germany (66,600 MT, previously reported as the Netherlands), Japan (58,900 MT, including 28,300 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 1,900 MT), Taiwan (51,900 MT, including 40,000 MT switched from unknown destinations), Mexico (42,400 MT), and Indonesia (16,900 MT including 500 MT switched from Vietnam and decreases of 7,200 MT).  Decreases were reported for unknown destinations (212,300 MT) and Thailand (2,000 MT).  Net sales of 55,100 MT for 2015/2016 were reported for Japan (55,000 MT) and unknown destinations (100 MT). Exports of 349,700 MT were up 71 percent from the previous week and 55 percent from the prior 4-week average.  The primary destinations were Mexico (91,700 MT), the Netherlands (85,700 MT), Germany (66,600 MT), Taiwan (41,100 MT), Japan (33,900 MT), and Indonesia (19,500 MT).
    • Meal – Net sales of 123,700 MT for 2014/2015 were up 20 percent from the previous week and 18 percent from the prior 4-week average.  Increases were reported for Colombia (40,300 MT), Mexico (32,600 MT), Venezuela (25,000 MT, switched from unknown destinations), Canada (14,300 MT), Honduras (10,100 MT, including 8,300 MT switched from unknown destinations), and Peru (8,700 MT).  Decreases were reported for unknown destinations (31,400 MT), Belgium (800 MT), Costa Rica (300 MT), and Indonesia (100 MT).  Net sales of 120,300 MT for 2015/2016 were primarily for Thailand (109,400 MT) and the Dominican Republic (9,000 MT).  Exports of 213,100 MT were up 99 percent from the previous week and 1 percent from the prior 4-week average.  The primary destinations were Thailand (47,800 MT), Colombia (41,700 MT), Mexico (28,400 MT), Venezuela (25,000 MT), Honduras (22,000 MT), and Canada (15,800 MT).  
    • Bean oil – Net sales of 9,200 MT for 2014/2015 were down 8 percent from the previous week and 9 percent from the prior 4-week average.  Increases were reported for the Dominican Republic (7,200 MT), Mexico (1,500 MT), Canada (200 MT), and Australia (100 MT).  Exports of 7,600 MT were up 97 percent from the previous week, but down 8 percent from the prior 4-week average.  The primary destinations were Mexico (7,200 MT) and Canada (300 MT). 

Receipt Registrations as of yesterday afternoon – no changes.

  • Wheat = 18
  • Oats = 12
  • Corn =25
  • Ethanol =30
  • DDGs = 0
  • Beans = 0
  • Bean oil = 3,335
  • Soymeal = 0
  • Rice = 1,466
  • KC wheat = 48
  • Minneapolis wheat =  522

Moving averages:

  • CN 20 day 361 ¼
  • WN 20 day 492 ½
  • MWN 20 day 549 ¼
  • SMN 20 day 307.50
  • BON 20 day 3252
  • BON 50 day 3185
  • BON 100 day 3196
  • BON 200 day 3269

Open interest as of yesterday’s close

  • Total corn – 1,430,282 open, down 944
  • Total soybeans – 732,300 open, up 10,025
  • Total soymeal – 382,256 open, up 708
  • Total bean oil – 404,304 open, up 2,439
  • Total wheat – 438,261 open, up 2,053
  • Total KC wheat – 155,919 open, up 1,064

Upcoming reports/events.

  • Weekly COT report comes out today at 230 pm CST
  • Surveyors SGS and Intertek will estimate Malaysia’s May palm oil exports on Monday
  • Weekly US export inspection report comes out on Monday at 10 am CST
  • Weekly US crop progress report comes out on Monday at 3 pm CST
  • US EPA said they will propose biofuel use targets for 2015 by Monday and will re-propose biofuel targets for 2014 that reflect volumes of renewable fuel actually used in 2014.
  • US May unemployment report comes out Friday June 5th at 730 am CST
  • Goldman Sachs / UBS roll begins Friday June 5th . They will be rolling long July positions forward
  • Deutsche Bank roll begins Friday June 5th . They will be rolling long July 2014 wheat positions into July 2015
  • USDA June crop production and supply and demand report comes out on Wednesday June 10th at 11 am CST
  • Trading at Settlement (TAS) trades start date has been delayed one week. The new effective date is Sunday June 14th , for trade date June 15th.
  • USDA to restart monthly Census crush reports in July 2015.

Data sources: DowJones , Bloomberg, Reuters , DTN news, barchart.com, CME Group and NYSE