News From The Grain Floor 4/28/15

USDA announced 130,000 tons of US corn sold to Taiwan for ‘14/15 shipment

Today is position day for May futures. Traders should be out of long May positions by the close or risk delivery. Expectations for deliveries tonight are:

  • Beans = expecting 0 – 50 deliveries – there was one bean receipt registered as of yesterday afternoon
  • Meal = expecting 0 – 20 deliveries – there were not any meal receipts registered yesterday afternoon
  • Bean oil = expecting 100 – 500 deliveries and some analysts are saying 500-1,000 deliveries – there were 3,335 bean oil receipts registered as of yesterday afternoon
  • Corn = expecting 50-100 , some analysts are saying as many as 1,000 corn deliveries – there were 59 corn receipts registered yesterday afternoon.
  • Wheat = expecting 0 – 500 deliveries , there were not any wheat receipts registered as of yesterday afternoon
  • KC Wheat = expecting 50 – 300 deliveries – there were 295 KC wheat receipts registered as of yesterday afternoon
  • Minneapolis wheat = expecting 50 -400 deliveries – there were 357 Minneapolis wheat receipts registered as of yesterday afternoon

Weather Highlights

  • Limited showers this week in the U.S. Midwest will allow corn and soybean planting to progress

Overnight closes

  • SN down ¾ at 976 ½
  • CN up 3 at 367 ½
  • WN up 3 ½ at 479 ¾
  • KC WN up 2 ¼ at 505 ¼
  • MWN up 1 ¾ at 543
  • SMN unchanged at 317.50
  • BON down 1 at 3137

Overnight volume

  • SN 13,244
  • CN 17,498
  • WN 7,029
  • KC WN 1,799
  • MWN 317
  • SMN 5,184
  • BON 14,591

Overnight Option Volume

  • Corn 3,157
  • Beans 2,389
  • Meal 49
  • Bean oil 24
  • Wheat 869

Active Strikes in Overnight Trade

  • CU 450 calls – traded 1,380
  • SX 980/1020 call spread – traded 848
  • WN 500 calls – traded 407

Total EOO’s cleared from previous session

  • CN 400 P 106
  • CU 400 P 5

Significant OI changes from previous session

  • Bache bot total 6000 SN 920p 6-6.5 (new long)
  • Paper bot 4000 CN 400/440 call spreads 2.875 vs 364.5 (new long on the 400c and closing long on the 440c)
  • Paper bot 3000 CM 370/380 call spreads 2.875 (new long on 370c / closing long on 380c)
  • Paper sld 2000 CU 340p 7.125-7.25 vS 372 (new short)

Funds

COT

COT

COT

Current

14-Apr

21-Apr

to COT

22-Apr

23-Apr

24-Apr

27-Apr

28-Apr

Estimate

Corn

-86826

-104796

-17970

-1000

-6000

-8000

-10000

0

-129796

Wheat

-92591

-96,244

-3653

-1000

2000

-5000

-8000

5000

-103,244

Soybeans

-76269

-48966

27303

-2000

6000

2000

4000

3000

-35966

Soymeal

-22711

-13529

9182

-1000

2000

-1000

1000

3000

-9529

Soyoil

12384

23722

11338

-1000

3000

-2000

-500

-4000

19222

News:

Dollar , stock market, crude, gold, and silver lower.

Nikkei up .38%

Hang Seng down .2%

Shanghai index unchanged

Weekly API energy inventory report from yesterday afternoon:

  • Crude a build of 4.2 MB expecting a build of 2.3 MB
  • Gas a build of 408,000 barrels, expecting a build of 200,000 barrels
  • Distillates a build of 746,000 barrels, expecting a build of 1.2 MB

Today is the second day of the FOMC two day policy meeting. Fed announcement today at 1 pm CST

China grain market closings = beans up 4, corn down 13, meal unchanged, palm oil down 34, and bean oil down 34.

Malaysian palm oil down 12.

USDA attaché in Malaysia estimated Malaysia’s ‘15/16  palm oil output at 20.1 MMT vs. ‘14/15 estimate of 19.535 MMT .

China’s think tank said China’s soybean subsidy seen reducing acreage by 20%

South Korea NOFI bought 65,000 tons of optional origin corn for Dec shipment

South Korea NOFI bought 69,000 tons of optional origin feed corn for October shipment

South Korea MFG bought 132,000 tons of optional origin corn for Nov shipment

South Korea Samyang Corp seeks 30,000 tons of US wheat for Sept-Oct shipment

South Korea KFMC canceled tender to buy 32,200 tons of Australian wheat for November shipment

Malaysia, Vietnam, and Morocco are all shopping for soymeal

South Korea bought 15,000 tons of rice for Aug-Sept shipment

New bird flu cases probable in Iowa, outbreak in 13 states

Market talk/rumors this week that Russia will end their export tax before the first of July

Argentina crush plant workers threaten strike as early as Monday.

Receipt Registrations as of yesterday afternoon – no changes

  • Wheat = 0
  • Oats = 0
  • Corn =59
  • Ethanol =173
  • DDGs = 0
  • Beans = 1
  • Bean oil = 3,335
  • Soy meal = 0
  • Rice = 1,307
  • KC wheat = 295
  • Minneapolis wheat =  357

Moving averages:

  • SN 20 day 973 ¼
  • SN 50 day 985 ½
  • SMN 20 day 316.20
  • SMN 50 day 323.00
  • BON 20 day 3155
  • BON 50 day 3152
  • BON 100 day 3200

Open interest as of yesterday’s close:

  • Total corn 1,322,031 open, down 1,195
  • Total beans 693,349 open, down 14,064
  • Total meal 334,430 open, down 5,754
  • Total bean oil 384,794 open, down 3,571
  • Total wheat 443,077 open, down 2,764
  • Total KC wheat 166,205 open, up 4,356

Upcoming reports/events.

  • Weekly DOE energy inventory report comes out today at 930 am CST. Expecting
  1. Crude – a build of 2.3 MB
  2. Gas – a build of 200,000 barrels
  3. Distillates – a build of 1.2 MB
  • Weekly US ethanol plant production report comes out today at 930 am CST.
  • First Notice Day for May futures is tomorrow.
  • Tomorrow is month end
  • Surveyors SGS and Intertek Agri Services will estimate Malaysia’s April palm oil exports tomorrow
  • Weekly US jobless claims report comes out tomorrow at 730 am CST
  • Weekly US export sales report comes out tomorrow at 730 am CST
  • Weekly EIA Nat Gas storage report comes out tomorrow at 930 am CST
  • April US unemployment comes out on Friday at 730 am CST
  • US EPA said on Friday April 10th they will propose biofuel use targets for 2015 by June 1st and will re-propose biofuel targets for 2014 that reflect volumes of renewable fuel actually used in 2014.
  • USDA to restart monthly Census crush reports in July 2015.

Data sources: DowJones , Bloomberg, Reuters , DTN news, barchart.com, CME Group and NYSE