News From The Grain Floor 3/25/15

Good morning.

Life isn’t about finding yourself. Life is about creating yourself.

–          George Bernard Shaw

The U.S. weather on a positive note for HRW areas is slightly wetter across the U.S. Plains and the Delta through the next 10 days, yet slowing corn planting a bit.  The Black Sea weather forecast calls for much need rains next week. 

USDA announced 114,000 Tons Of Corn Sold To Mexico In 2014-15

USDA announced 108,863 Tons of Soybean Cake and Meal Sold to Canada in 2015-16

Overnight closes

  • SK up 1/2 at 982 1/4
  • CK up 1/4 at 393 1/2
  • WK down 3 at 520 1/2
  • KC WK down 2 3/4 at 562 1/2
  • MWK down 1 1/2 at 580 1/4
  • SMK down .20 at 326.10
  • BOK up 12 at 3123

Overnight volume

  • SK 14,407
  • CK 19,199
  • WK 5,694
  • KC WK 679
  • MWK 167
  • SMK 3,773
  • BOK 5,436

Opening calls

  • Beans steady better
  • Corn steady better
  • Wheat 2-4 lower
  • KC wheat 2-4 lower
  • Minneapolis wheat 1-3 lower
  • Meal steady easier
  • Bean oil 10-20 higher

Nikkei up .17%

Hang Seng up .5%

Shanghai index down .8%

Weekly API energy inventory report from yesterday afternoon

  • Crude a build of 4.8 million barrels expecting a build of 5.1 million barrels
  • Gas a draw of 2.6 million barrels expecting a draw of 1.6 million barrels
  • Distillates a draw of 641,000 barrels expecting a draw of 800,000 barrels

China grain closings = beans down 42, corn down 10, meal down 4, palm oil down 18, and bean oil down 20

Malaysian palm oil up 12.

Surveyor SGS estimated Malaysia’s March 1-25th palm oil exports at 846,217 tons up 3.7% from a month ago

Surveyor Intertek estimated Malaysia’s March 1-25th palm oil exports at 856,474 tons up 3.52% from a month ago

Argentina back from holiday today.

Mexico seeking/buying US corn

Japan seeking/buying US corn

Columbia seeking/buying US corn

Japan seeks 9,590 tons of feed wheat and 75,000 tons of barley via SBS tender for June shipment

Iran bought 80,000 tons of German and Black Sea origin wheat for April shipment

South Korea bought 33,897 tons of Chinese origin rice for June-Sept shipment

China auctioned wheat from reserves yesterday and today. I have not seen results from the auction yet.

China auctioned rapeseed from reserves today. I have not seen the results from the auction.

Talk/Reports of better than expected bean yields in Argentina.

CWB estimated Canada’s 2015 wheat crop at 28.7 MMT vs. 29.3 MMT in 2014

CWB estimated 2015 global wheat crop at 703.4 MMT vs. 724.8 MMT in 2014

CWB estimated 2015 global corn crop at 973.5 MMT vs. 989.7 MMT in 2014

CWB estimated 2015 global bean crop at 299.0 MMT vs. 315.1 MMT in 2014

Russia’s Ag Min estimated winter grain lost to 16.8% from 21%

Russia bought 30,510 tons of intervention grain. Making the total bought since Sept 30th at 473,290 tons. Russia’s government plans to buy 5.0 MMT of intervention grain.

Ukraine Ag Min said Ukrainian farmers have planted 30% of spring grains as of March 24th

Vietnam exported 1.01 MMT of rice between Jan –March down 28% from a year ago

Needed rains in forecast for Russian and Ukrainian wheat areas

Forecasts for much needed rain in the HRW wheat US areas

Unfavorable forecast for southern US areas for corn planting.

Receipt Registrations as of yesterday afternoon – no changes

  • Wheat = 0
  • Oats = 104
  • Corn =59
  • Ethanol =175
  • Beans = 212
  • Bean oil = 3,335
  • Soy meal = 0
  • Rice = 1,307
  • KC wheat = 295
  • Minneapolis wheat =  357

Moving averages

  • May bean 20 day 987 ½
  • May bean 50 day 989 ½
  • May corn 20 day 386 ¼
  • May corn 50 day 389
  • May corn 100 day 386 ¼
  • May corn 200 day 394 ½
  • May wheat 50 day 516
  • May KC wheat 50 day 553
  • May Minneapolis 50 day 574 ¼
  • May bean oil 20 day 3130
  • May bean oil 50 day 3163
  • May bean oil 100 day 3231
  • May meal 20 day 328.80
  • May meal 50 day 328.40

Open interest as of yesterday’s close

  • Total corn 1,334,131 open, down 5,641
  • Total beans 728,312 open, down 3,046
  • Total meal 340,983 open, up 4,556
  • Total bean oil 374,953 open, down 632
  • Total wheat 429,727 open, up 3,453
  • Total KC wheat 154,311 open, up 1,053

Upcoming reports/events

  • Weekly DOE energy inventory report comes out today at 930 am CST. Expecting
    • Crude a build of 5.1 million barrels
    • Gas a draw of 1.6 million barrels
    • Distillates a draw of 800,000 barrels
    • Weekly US ethanol plant production comes out today at 930 am CST
    • Brazilian government and truckers meet tomorrow
    • Weekly US jobless claims report comes out tomorrow at 730 am CST
    • Weekly US export sales report comes out tomorrow at 730 am CST
    • Weekly EIA Nat Gas storage report comes out tomorrow at 930 am CST
    • April options expire on Friday at 115 pm CST
    • USDA 2015 prospective plantings and grain stocks report comes out on Tuesday at 11 am CST . I will email report estimates sometime today.
    • Weekly USDA crop progress report resumes Monday April 6th. Reports come out every Monday at 3 pm CST
    • Stats Canada comes out with Canadian production estimates on April 23rd
    • USDA to restart monthly Census crush reports in July 2015.

Data sources: DowJones , Bloomberg, Reuters , DTN news, barchart.com, CME Group and NYSE

COT

COT

COT

Current

10-Mar

17-Mar

to COT

18-Mar

19-Mar

20-Mar

23-Mar

24-Mar

Estimate

Corn

4194

-58325

-62519

2000

1000

16000

6000

4000

-29325

Wheat

-63589

-60,035

3554

2000

3000

10000

4000

-4000

-45,035

Soybeans

-29965

-48484

-18519

3000

-2000

8000

5000

-3000

-37484

Soymeal

22717

5050

-17667

2000

2000

4000

3000

-1000

15050

Soyoil

13053

-5259

-18312

3000

1000

2000

3000

-1000

2741