News From The Grain Floor 3/23/15

Good morning.

Indecision and delays are the parents of failure.

–          George Canning

No USDA announcements this morning

Overnight closes

  • SK up 6 ¾ at 980 ½
  • CK up 4 ½ at 389 ½
  • WK up 6 ½ at 536 ½
  • KC WK up 6 at 575 ½
  • MWK up 5 ½ at 595
  • SMK up 2.40 at 326.40
  • BOK up 25 at 3093

Overnight volume

  • SK 13,751
  • CK 214,634
  • WK 13,208
  • KC WK 1,485
  • MWK 605
  • SMK 5,346
  • BOK 8,560

Opening calls

  • Beans 5-7 higher
  • Corn 3-5 higher
  • Wheat 6-8 higher
  • KC wheat 5-7 higher
  • Minneapolis wheat 4-6 higher
  • Meal 2.00-3.00 higher
  • Bean oil 20-30 higher

Stock market higher. Gold, silver, dollar, and crude oil lower.

Nikkei up .99%

Hang Seng up .5%

Shanghai index up 1.9%

China grain closings = beans up 11, corn up 17, meal up 30, palm oil down 12, and bean oil up 14

Malaysian palm oil up 26

Argentina markets are closed today and tomorrow for holiday. Trading resumes Wednesday.

South Korea NOFI bought 55,000 tons of South American soy meal for Sept shipment

Bangladesh reissues tenders to import 100,000 tons of wheat

Oman seeks 60,000 tons of Russian or German wheat for July-Aug shipment

MARS estimated EU 2015 soft wheat yield at 5.79 TPH down 4.8% from 2014

MARS estimated EU 2015 rapeseed yield at 3.24 TPH down 9.4% from 2014

USDA attaché in South Africa estimated South Africa’s ‘14/15 grain production at 10.4 MMT vs. USDA estimate of 11.5 MMT

Last week Buenos Aires Grains Exchange estimated Argentina’s 2015 bean crop at 57.0 MMT, unchanged from previous estimate

Buenos Aires Grains Exchange said last week that 6% of Argentina’s corn crop has been harvested vs. 7% a year ago

Last week Argentina Ag Min estimated Argentina’s 2015 bean crop at 58.0 MMT

Oil World said Indonesia exported 23.0 MMT of palm oil in 2014 vs. 21.5 MMT in 2013

EPA reported last week that February ethanol RIN production was at 1.1 billion gallons vs. 1.2 billion gallons in January

EPA reported last week that February biodiesel RIN production was at 131.4 million gallons v s. 142.9 million gallons in January

Zambia plans to export 800,000 tons of white corn to neighboring countries after producing their largest ever harvest

COPA said for the week ending March 18th Canada’s canola crush at 160,185 tons up 13% from a week ago

COT supplemental report from Friday afternoon. Large spec positions as of March 17th. Futures and options combined

  • Wheat short 60,035
  • KC wheat short 25,878
  • Corn short 58,325
  • Beans short 48,484
  • Meal long 5,050
  • Bean oil short 5,259

Receipt Registrations as of Friday afternoon

  • Wheat = 0
  • Oats = 104
  • Corn =59
    • 8 receipts canceled Friday afternoon out of CGB Utica IL
    • Ethanol =175
    • Beans = 212
    • Bean oil = 3,335
    • Soy meal = 0
    • Rice = 1,307
    • KC wheat = 295
    • Minneapolis wheat =  357

Moving averages

  • May bean 20 day 990 ¾
  • May bean 50 day 992
  • May corn 20 day 385 ¼
  • May corn 50 day 389 ½
  • May corn 100 day 396
  • May corn 200 day 395 ½
  • May Minneapolis 100 day 596
  • May bean oil 20 day 3135
  • May bean oil 50 day 3171
  • May meal 20 day 330.40
  • May meal 50 day 328.90
  • May meal 100 day 337.30

Open interest as of Friday’s close

  • Total corn 1,333,734 open, down 22,328
  • Total beans 727,978 open, up 2,734
  • Total meal 336,909 open, up 1,628
  • Total bean oil 377,238 open, up 1,091
  • Total wheat 428,025 open, down 558
  • Total KC wheat 155,319 open, down 1,767

Upcoming reports/events

  • Weekly US export inspections report comes out today at 10 am CST
  • China to auction wheat from reserves Tuesday and Wednesday
  • Weekly API energy inventory report comes out tomorrow at 330 pm CST
  • China to auction rapeseed from reserves on Wednesday
  • Brazilian government and truckers meeting on Thursday
  • April options expire Friday at 115 pm CST.
  • USDA 2015 prospective plantings and grain stocks report comes out Tuesday March 31st at 11 am CST
  • Weekly USDA crop progress report resumes Monday April 6th. Reports come out every Monday at 3 pm CST.
  • Stats Canada comes out with Canadian production estimates on April 23rd
  • USDA to restart month Census crush reports in July 2015