News From The Grain Floor 3/02/2015

Good morning,

Never eat more than you can lift.

–          Miss Piggy

No USDA announcements this morning

Today is the beginning of a new month.

Overnight closes

  • SK up 2 ¼ at 1034
  • CK down 1 at 392 ¼
  • WK up 2 at 515
  • KC WK up 4 ¾ at 544 ¼
  • MWK up 1 ½ at 568
  • SMK down .80 at 341.60
  • BOK up 27 at 3322
  • RRK up 3 at 1077.50

Overnight volume

  • SK 16,309
  • CK 11,196
  • WK 7,099
  • KC WK 1,342
  • MWK 304
  • SMK 4,081
  • BOK 11,240
  • RRK 51

Opening calls

  • Beans 1-3 higher
  • Corn 1-3 lower
  • Wheat 1-3 higher
  • KC wheat 3-5 higher
  • Minneapolis wheat 1-3 higher
  • Meal   steady to 1.00 lower
  • Bean oil 20-30 higher
  • Rice 2-4 higher

Dollar and crude lower. Gold, silver, and stock market higher

Nikkei up .15%

Hang Seng up .3%

Shanghai Index up .8%

China cut one year lending rate by 25 bp to 5.35%

China grain market closings – beans down 10, corn up 4, meal up 15, palm oil up 76, and bean oil 106

Malaysian palm oil up 68

Egypt GASC bought 110,00 tons of wheat (85K from Russia and 25K from the Ukraine) in local tender for late March shipment

On Thursday China bought 1 cargo of Brazilian beans for March shipment

Hearing China bought 6 Brazilian bean cargoes last week for April – May shipment

Hearing China bought 4 cargoes of Argentina beans for April shipment

Hearing China bought 1 US bean cargo off the PNW for late March shipment

CNGOIC estimated China’s 2015 corn imports at 3.0 MMT

Brazil reopens some roads on Friday . Road blocks on Friday = 59 and road blocks on Thursday = 88

Safras e Mercado – Brazilian crop progress , from Friday

  • Brazilian bean harvest 28% complete vs. 17% a week ago vs. 41% a year ago and vs. 32% average
  • Parana bean harvest 28% complete vs. 24% a week ago vs. 48% a year ago and vs. 34% average
  • Mato Grosso bean harvest 51% complete vs. 25% a week ago vs. 60% a year ago and vs. 54% average
  • Brazil 1st corn crop harvest is 25.9% complete vs. 20.7% a week ago and vs. 40.6% a year ago
  • Mato Grosso first corn harvest is 7% complete vs. 5% a week ago and vs. 5% a year ago
  • Brazil 2nd corn crop planting is 58.4% complete vs. 39.5% a week ago vs. 55.7% a year ago
  • Mato Grosso 2nd corn crop planting is 76% complete vs. 51% a week ago and vs. 66% a year ago

Buenos Aires Grains Exchange- weekly Argentina crop progress report from last week

  • Bean crop estimated at 57.0 MMT unchanged from previous
  • Corn crop estimated at 22.5 MMT unchanged from previous estimate
  • Corn harvest is 1.7% complete vs. 1.1% a week ago
  • Sunflower crop estimated at 2.4 MMT unchanged from previous estimate
  • Sunflower harvest is 19% complete vs. 18% a week ago and vs. 28.2% a year ago

US Midwest temperatures below normal this week

Winterkill problems in Russian wheat .

Deliveries

  • Bean oil = 239 with the date at 2/10/15
    • Customer JP Morgan stopped 154
    • Rice = 162 with the date at 2/26/15
    • Corn = 1,416 with the date at 2/10/15
      • Customer JP Morgan issued 2 and stopped 86
      • KC Wheat =77 with the date at 2/18/15
      • Minneapolis wheat = 226 with the date current
        • House Term stopped 32
        • Oats = 4 with the date at 2/04/15
        • No Chicago wheat
        • No beans
        • No meal

Receipt Registrations as of Friday’s afternoon -250 new Minneapolis wheat receipts registered Friday afternoon

  • Wheat  = 134
  • Oats = 100
  • Corn = 1,417
  • Ethanol = 155
  • DDGs = 0
  • Beans = 1
  • Bean oil = 3,335
  • Soymeal = 0
  • Rice = 1,296
  • KC wheat = 168
  • Minneapolis wheat = 360
  • 250 new Minneapolis wheat receipts registered Friday afternoon

Moving averages

  • May bean 50 day 1012 ½
  • May bean 100 day 1018 ½
  • May corn 20 day 391 ½
  • May corn 50 day 398 ½
  • May corn 100 day  394 ¼
  • May corn 200 day 402 ¾
  • May Chicago wheat 20 day 516 ¼
  • May Minneapolis wheat 20 day 572 ½
  • May bean oil 50 day 3223
  • May bean oil 100 day 3269
  • May meal 20 day 332.00
  • May meal 50 day 335.10
  • May meal 100 day 335.80
  • May meal 200 day 345.90

Open interest as of Friday’s close

  • March corn 21,297 open, down 16,634
  • Total corn 1,245,936 open, down 17,063
  • March beans 16,913 open, down 5,244
  • Total beans 673,336 open, up 5,251
  • March meal 8,161 open, down 2,153
  • Total meal 350,098 open, down 527
  • March bean oil 5,274 open, down 1,755
  • Total bean oil 357,665 open, down 1,963
  • March wheat 3,610 open, down 1,784
  • Total wheat 401,077 open, down 1,451
  • March KC wheat 1,693 open, down 1,830
  • Total KC wheat 162,979 open, up 41

Estimated fund activity from Friday’s trade

  • Wheat
  • Corn
  • Beans
  • Meal
  • Bean oil

Upcoming reports/events

  • Weekly US export inspections report comes out today at 10 am CST
  • Today at 3pm CST Kansas, Nebraska, Illinois, Oklahoma, Colorado, and the Dakotas will put out their monthly crop progress reports.
  • Weekly API comes out tomorrow at 330 pm CST
  • January US unemployment comes out on Friday at 730 am CST
  • USDA March supply and demand and crop production report comes out on Tuesday March 10th
  • FOMC two day policy meeting comes out on Tuesday and Wednesday March 17-18
  • USDA 2015 US acreage report comes out on Tuesday March 31st
  • Weekly USDA crop progress report resumes Monday April 6th. Reports come out every Monday at 3 pm CST.
  • Stats Canada comes out with Canadian production estimates on April 23rd
  • USDA to restart month Census crush reports in July 2015

Data sources: DowJones , Bloomberg, Reuters , DTN news, barchart.com ,CME Group, and NYSE