News From The Grain Floor 2/27/15

Good morning,

“Even if you’re on the right track, you’ll get run over if you just sit there.”

–          Will Rogers

USDA announced 120,000 tons of US sorghum sold to China, 60,000 tons for ‘14/15 shipment and 60,000 tons for ‘15/16 shipment

USDA announced 140,000 tons of US corn sold to Saudi Arabia for ‘14/15 shipment

Today is month end.

Today is first notice day for March futures. Deliveries were

  • Bean oil = 284 with the date at 1/28/15, expecting 500-2,000 deliveries
  • Rice = 345 with the date current
  • Corn = 1,416 with the date at 12/08/14 , expecting about 1,000 deliveries
    • Customer JP Morgan issued 976 and stopped 2.
    • KC wheat = 79 with the date at 1/08/15 , expecting 0-100 deliveries
      • ADM issued 79
      • Minneapolis wheat = 314 with the date at 2/11/15 , expecting 0-100
      • Oats 100 with the date at 1/30/15
      • No beans, as expected
      • No meal , as expected
      • No Chicago wheat, as expected

Overnight closes

  • SK up 3 at 1029 ½
  • CK up a ¼ at 388 ¾
  • WK up 4 ¾ at 505 ¼
  • KC WK up 2 ¼ at 534 ¾
  • MWK up 2 ¼ at 559
  • SMK down .40 at 343.70
  • BOK up 54 at 3258
  • RRK down 1.50 at 1064

Overnight volume

  • SK 25,298
  • CK 14,806
  • WK 9,304
  • KC WK 1,305
  • MWK 1,072
  • SMK 6,560
  • BOK 12,869
  • RRK 77

Opening calls

  • Beans 2-4 higher
  • Corn steady better
  • Wheat 4-6 higher
  • KC wheat 2-4 higher
  • Minneapolis wheat   1-3 higher
  • Meal  steady mixed
  • Bean oil 50-60 higher
  • Rice 1-3 lower

Crude higher. Dollar, stock market, gold, and silver lower .

Nikkei up .06%

Hang Seng down .3%

Shanghai Index up .4%

China grain market closings – beans up 34, corn up 14, meal up 38, palm oil up 84, and bean oil up 62

Malaysian palm oil up 33

South Korea bought 44,000 tons of rice from the US and China for May shipment

Truckers strike in Brazil continues  , today  is the ninth day of the strike

Brazil’s Agroconsult estimated Brazil’s 2015 bean crop at 94.7 MMT , up 828,000 tons from previous estimate

Brazil’s Agroconsult estimated Brazil’s 2015 first corn crop at 29.0 MMT

Brazil’s AgroConsult estimated Brazil’s 2015 second corn crop at 50.0 MMT

Argentina’s Ag Min estimated ‘14/15 bean crop at 58.0 MMT (record) vs. ‘13/14 crop of 53.4 MMT

Argentina’s Ag Min estimated ‘14/15 corn crop at 30.0 MMT vs. ‘13/14 crop of 33.0 MMT

Oil World estimated Paraguay’s 2015 bean crop at 8.1 MMT vs. previous estimate of 8.8 MMT and vs. 9.0 MMT in 2014 and vs. USDA attaché estimate of 9.2 MMT

Oil World estimated Paraguay’s 2015 bean exports at 4.0 MMT vs. previous estimate of 4.6 MMT and vs. 2014 exports of 4.8 MMT

Oil World estimated Paraguay’s 2015 bean crush at 3.9 MMT vs. previous estimate of 4.0 MMT and vs. 2014 crush of 3.8 MMT

Oil World estimated Paraguay’s 2015 bean ending stocks at 320,000 tons vs. 470,000 tons in 2014

Parana, Brazil said bean harvest is 28% complete vs. 24% a week ago

Parana, Brazil said first corn crop harvest is 27% complete vs. 18% a week ago

Parana, Brazil said second corn crop is 49% planted vs. 43% a week ago

Hearing Mato Grosso bean harvest is over 50% complete

ADM is slowing biodiesel production

Russia’s Ag Min said Russia exported 322,000 tons of wheat between Feb 1-25th down 57% from a year ago , after government imposed tax on shipments.

  • Russia may review wheat export tax in 10 days

USDA attaché in Israel estimated ‘15/16 wheat imports at 1.4 MMT vs. ‘14/15 imports of 1.5 MMT and vs. ‘13/14 imports of 1.7 MMT

China’s January imports – China’s General Administration of Customs

  • Wheat = 73,979 tons, down 89.8% from a year ago
  • Barley = 880,953 tons, up 785% from a year ago
  • Corn = 579,393 tons, down 10.99% from a year ago
  • Rice = 122,411 tons, down 38.71% from a year ago
  • Soybeans = 6,875,838 tons, up 16.24% from a year ago
  • Rapeseed = 338,220 tons, down 42.15% from a year ago
  • Rapeseed oil = 51,756 tons, down 39.97% from a year ago
  • Rapeseed meal = 9,570 tons, up 24.31% from a year ago
  • Bean oil = 43,998  tons, down 56.42% from a year ago
  • Soymeal = 10,301 tons, up 393% from a year ago
  • Palm oil = 461,164 tons , down 17.12% from a year ago

Receipt Registrations as of yesterday afternoon

  • Wheat  = 134
  • Oats = 100
    • 2 new oat receipts were registered yesterday afternoon
  • Corn = 1,417
    • 400 new corn receipts were registered yesterday afternoon out of CIRM Chicago IL
  • Ethanol = 155
  • DDGs = 0
  • Beans = 1
  • Bean oil = 3,335
  • Soymeal = 0
  • Rice = 1,296
    • 70 new rice receipts were registered yesterday afternoon
  • KC wheat = 168
  • Minneapolis wheat = 110

Moving averages

  • May bean 50 day 1012 ½
  • May bean 100 day 1017 ¾
  • May corn 20 day 391
  • May corn 50 day 399
  • May corn 100 day 393 ¾
  • May corn 200 day 403 ¼
  • May Chicago wheat 20 day 515 ½
  • May KC wheat 20 day 550 ½
  • May Minneapolis wheat 20 day 571 ½
  • May bean oil 20 day 3176
  • May bean oil 50 day 3220
  • May bean oil 100 day 3270
  • May meal 50 day 335.20
  • May meal 100 day 335.40
  • May meal 200 day 346.20

Open interest as of yesterday’s close

  • March corn 37,943 open, down 33,482
  • Total corn 1,264,416 open, down 2,968
  • March beans 22,188 open, down 14,336
  • Total beans 668,325 open, down 6,385
  • March meal 10,299 open, down 6,445
  • Total meal 350,924 open, down 1,919
  • March bean oil 7,029 open, down 5,182
  • Total bean oil 359,665 open, down 2,710
  • March wheat 5,515 open, down 7,098
  • Total wheat 402,760 open, up 167
  • March KC wheat 3,523 open, down 4,010
  • Total KC wheat 162,938 open, up 738

Estimated fund activity from yesterday’s trade

  • Wheat bought 2,000
  • Corn bought 4,000
  • Beans bought 7,000
  • Meal bought 2,000
  • Bean oil bought 1,000

Open outcry option players from yesterday

Corn:

FCS bot 2500 Z 410 straddles/sold 250 CZ

Macquarie bot 1400 N 400 calls

JPM sold 1500 Z 310 puts

Dowd bot 1000 U 410 straddles

FI sold 500 K 365 puts

FI sold 500 K 360 puts

FI sold 500 U 400 straddles

RJO sold 500 K 355 puts

JPM sold 500 J 380 puts

Macquarie sold 500 K 390 straddles/bot 500 J 390 straddles

Beans:

Tenco bot 1500 K 1060 calls/sold 450 SK

Bache sold 1000 N 1000-1100 call spreads

Tenco bot 800 J 1060 calls

Marex sold 800 N 1020 puts-1040 call strangles

ABN bot 600 X 960 puts/sold 1500 CZ 370 puts

ADM bot 500 X 1300 calls

Wheat:

UBS bot 600 KCZ 540 puts

Tenco sold 500 KCK 540 puts

FI bot 400 K 500-520 call spreads

Oil:

Bache bot 160 K 32 puts/sold 160 K 31 puts/sold 160 K 30 puts

Upcoming reports/events

  • Weekly COT report comes out today at 230 pm CST
  • Surveyors SGS and Intertek will estimate Malaysia’s February palm oil exports on Monday
  • Weekly US export inspections report comes out on Monday at 10 am CST
  • On Monday Kansas, Nebraska, Illinois, Oklahoma, Colorado, and the Dakotas will put out their monthly crop progress reports.
  • January US unemployment comes out on Friday March 6th at 730 am CST
  • USDA March supply and demand and crop production report comes out on Tuesday March 10th
  • FOMC two day policy meeting comes out on Tuesday and Wednesday March 17-18
  • USDA 2015 US acreage report comes out on Tuesday March 31st
  • Weekly USDA crop progress report resumes Monday April 6th. Reports come out every Monday at 3 pm CST.
  • Stats Canada comes out with Canadian production estimates on April 23rd
  • USDA to restart month Census crush reports in July 2015

Data sources: DowJones , Bloomberg, Reuters , DTN news, barchart.com ,CME Group, and NYSE