News From The Grain Floor 2/26/15

Good morning.

“Sports don’t build character. They reveal it.”

–          John Wooden

No USDA announcements this morning

Today is position day for March futures. Traders should be out of long positions by the close today, or risk delivery. Expectations for deliveries Thursday night are

  • Beans 0- 1, as of yesterday afternoon there were 1 bean receipt registered
  • Meal 0, as of yesterday afternoon there were 0 meal receipts registered
  • Bean oil 500 -3,000 , as of yesterday afternoon there was 3,335 bean oil receipts registered
  • Wheat 0 -134 , as of yesterday afternoon there were 134 wheat receipts registered
  • KC wheat 0-168, as of yesterday afternoon there were 168 KC wheat receipts registered
  • Minneapolis wheat 0-110, as of yesterday afternoon there were 110 Minneapolis wheat receipts registered
  • Corn 500- 1,017, as of yesterday afternoon  there were 1,017 corn receipts registered

Open interest in March futures as of yesterday’s close

  • March corn 71,669 open, down 35,381
  • March beans 37,261 open, down 12,690
  • March meal 16,860 open, down 8,243
  • March bean oil 12,224 open, down 12,018
  • March wheat 12,644 open, down 5,343
  • March KC wheat 7,533 open, down 1,848

Overnight closes

  • SK up 3 at 1013 ¾
  • CK up 2 ¼ at 386
  • WK down 1 ¾ at 495 ½
  • KC WK up 1 at 531 ¾
  • MWK up ¾ at 557
  • SMK down 1.10 at 338.70
  • BOK up 11 at 3202
  • RRK down 12 at 1064

Overnight volume

  • SK 23,020
  • CK 17,247
  • WK 6,554
  • KC WK 731
  • MWK 398
  • SMK 11,697
  • BOK 9,498
  • RRK 81

Opening calls

  • Beans 2-4 higher
  • Corn 1-3 higher
  • Wheat 1-3 lower
  • KC wheat steady mixed
  • Minneapolis wheat  steady mixed
  • Meal  .50-1.50 lower
  • Bean oil 5-15 higher
  • Rice 10-15 lower

Dollar , gold, and silver higher. Crude and stock market lower

Nikkei  up 1.08%

Hang Seng up .5%

Shanghai Index up 2.2%

Weekly US jobless claims report came out this morning at +31K to 313K, expecting 290K

China grain market closings – beans down 53, corn down 10, meal up 18, palm oil up 40, and bean oil up 44

Malaysian palm oil up 28.

Hearing China is eyeing South American soybean oil for April forward shipment

Hearing China already bought 120,000 tons of Argentine bean oil for April –May shipment

Talk China may start seeking wheat probably from Australia.

South Korea KFA bought 120,000 tons of optional origin corn for September shipment

South Korea KFA bought 25,000 tons of feed wheat optional origin for May shipment

South Korea MFG bought 53,000 tons of optional origin feed wheat for August shipment

Uncertainty over Brazilian truckers strike, some say strike is ongoing others say strike is coming to an end

Brazil government t and striking truckers fail to reach agreement in talks yesterday over freight rates

IGC estimated ‘14/15 global wheat crop at 719.0 vs. previous estimate of 717.0 MMT

IGC estimated ‘15/16 global wheat crop at 705.0 MMT

IGC estimated ‘14/15 global corn crop at a record high of 992.0 MMT unchanged from previous estimate

IGC estimated ‘15/16 global corn crop at 938.0 MMT

CEC estimated South Africa’s 2015 corn crop at 9.66 MMT, lowest since 2007,  vs. 14.25 MMT in 2014

CEC estimated South Africa’s 2014 wheat crop at 1.775 MMT unchanged from previous estimate

Weekly US export sales report

  • Wheat – ‘14/15 328,300 ‘15/16 130,700 (expecting 200 -400,000 tons)
  • Corn – ‘14/15 715,800 ‘15/16 148,200  (expecting 900,000 -1.1 million tons)
  • Beans – ‘14/15 459,200 ‘15/16 36,200 (expecting 450-650,000 tons)
  • Meal – ‘14/15 -6,400 ‘15/16 91,400 (expecting 100 -300,000 tons)
  • Bean oil – ‘14/15 14,200 (expecting 0-20,000 tons)

Export highlights

  • Wheat – Net sales of 328,300 metric tons for delivery in the 2014/2015 marketing year were up 23 percent from the previous week, but down 19 percent from the prior 4-week average. Increases were reported for Japan (68,000 MT), Indonesia (55,000 MT), Canada (49,300 MT), Mexico (30,200 MT), Algeria (27,200 MT), and the Dominican Republic (20,600 MT). Decreases were reported for unknown destinations (16,700 MT). Net sales of 130,700 MT for 2015/2016 were for South Korea (90,700 MT) and Nigeria (40,000 MT). Exports of 493,900 MT were up 26 percent from the previous week and 28 percent from the prior 4-week average. The primary destinations were Japan (174,000 MT), Iraq (52,500 MT), Canada (49,600 MT), Guatemala (29,100 MT), and South Korea (27,500 MT).
  • Corn – Net sales of 715,800 MT for 2014/2015 were down 23 percent from the previous week and from the prior 4-week average. Increases were reported for Japan (287,800 MT, including 143,700 MT switched from unknown destinations, 65,000 MT switched from South Korea, and decreases of 1,800 MT), Colombia (182,700 MT, including 11,000 MT switched from unknown destinations), Mexico (172,200 MT), Algeria (47,700 MT, including 45,000 MT switched from unknown destinations), Peru (31,900 MT), and Canada (11,500 MT). Decreases were reported for unknown destinations (22,900 MT), South Korea (7,300 MT), and Egypt (3,300 MT). Net sales of 148,200 MT for 2015/2016 were reported for Japan (81,500 MT), unknown destinations (50,800 MT), and Panama (15,800 MT). Exports of 865,100 MT were up 24 percent from the previous week and 21 percent from the prior 4-week average. The primary destinations were Japan (252,300 MT), Taiwan (138,300 MT), Mexico (126,900 MT), South Korea (124,100 MT), Algeria (92,700 MT), Egypt (64,700 MT), and Peru (33,000 MT).
  • Beans – Net sales of 459,200 MT for 2014/2015 were down 9 percent from the previous week and 26 percent from the prior 4-week average. Increases were reported for China (272,900 MT, including 5,000 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 65,900 MT), the Netherlands (156,800 MT, including 140,000 MT switched from unknown destinations), Japan (40,100 MT, including 37,800 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 300 MT), Indonesia (34,800 MT, including 25,000 MT switched from unknown destinations and 400 MT switched from Vietnam), Mexico (31,700 MT), Guatemala (26,000 MT), Colombia (20,800 MT), and Peru (6,000 MT). Decreases were reported for unknown destinations (146,800 MT). Net sales of 36,200 MT for 2015/2016 were for Japan. Exports of 1,103,300 MT were down 19 percent from the previous week and 33 percent from the prior 4-week average. The primary destinations were China (568,300 MT), the Netherlands (146,800 MT), Mexico (111,400 MT), Turkey (78,900 MT), Japan (74,500 MT), Indonesia (43,300 MT), Morocco (27,500 MT), and Guatemala (26,000 MT).
  • Meal – Net sales reductions of 6,400 MT for 2014/2015 were down noticeably from the previous week and from the prior 4-week average. Increases were reported for Ecuador (27,000 MT), Colombia 22,100 MT, including 7,000 MT switched from unknown destinations), Mexico (19,100 MT), Peru (15,100 MT), Honduras (9,500 MT), and Israel (8,800 MT, including 8,000 MT switched from unknown destinations). Decreases were reported for unknown destinations (90,400 MT), Thailand (40,000 MT), and Indonesia (300 MT). Net sales of 91,400 MT for 2015/2016 were reported for unknown destinations. Exports of 216,600 MT were down 44 percent from the previous week and 20 percent from the prior 4-week average. The primary destinations were Mexico (57,100 MT), the Philippines (46,500 MT), Vietnam (45,500 MT), Israel (16,800 MT), Spain (15,400 MT), Colombia (11,500 MT), and Morocco (10,500 MT).
  • Bean oil – Net sales of 14,200 MT for 2014/2015 were up 30 percent from the previous week and 8 percent from the prior 4-week average. Increases were reported for the Dominican Republic (4,800 MT), Colombia (4,500 MT), Mexico (2,400 MT), and El Salvador (1,100 MT). Exports of 19,000 MT were up 95 percent from the previous week and 28 percent from the prior 4-week average. The primary destinations were the Dominican Republic (14,500 MT), Mexico (4,100 MT), and Canada (200 MT).

Receipt Registrations as of yesterday afternoon – No changes

  • Wheat  = 134
  • Oats = 98
  • Corn = 1,017
  • Ethanol = 155
  • DDGs = 0
  • Beans = 1
  • Bean oil = 3,335
  • Soymeal = 0
  • Rice = 1,226
  • KC wheat = 168
  • Minneapolis wheat = 110

Moving averages

  • May bean 50 day 1012 ¾
  • May bean 100 day 1016 ¾
  • May corn 20 day 390 ¼
  • May corn 50 day 399 ½
  • May corn 100 day 393 ½
  • May corn 200 day 404
  • May bean oil 20 day 3162
  • May bean oil 50 day 3220
  • May bean oil 100 day 3270
  • May meal 50 day 335.20
  • May meal 100 day 334.90
  • May meal 200 day 346.40

Open interest as of yesterday’s close

  • Total corn 1,269,882 open, down 24,643
  • Total beans 675,535 open, down 2,412
  • Total meal 353,447 open, down 4,295
  • Total bean oil 362,389 open, down 2,401
  • Total wheat 402,702 open, up 960
  • Total KC wheat 162,292 open, up 4,355

Upcoming reports/events

  • Weekly EIA Nat Gas storage report comes out today at 930 am CST expecting -236 BCF
  • First notice day for March futures is tomorrow
  • Tomorrow is month end
  • Weekly COT report comes out tomorrow at 230 pm CST
  • Surveyors SGS and Intertek will estimate Malaysia’s February palm oil exports on Monday
  • On Monday Kansas, Nebraska, Illinois, Oklahoma, Colorado, and the Dakotas will put out their monthly crop progress reports.
  • USDA March supply and demand and crop production report comes out on Tuesday March 10th
  • FOMC two day policy meeting comes out on Tuesday and Wednesday March 17-18
  • USDA 2015 US acreage report comes out on Tuesday March 31st
  • Weekly USDA crop progress report resumes Monday April 6th. Reports come out every Monday at 3 pm CST.
  • Stats Canada comes out with Canadian production estimates on April 23rd
  • USDA to restart month Census crush reports in July 2015

Data sources: DowJones , Bloomberg, Reuters , DTN news, barchart.com ,CME Group, and NYSE