News From The Grain Floor 2/25/15

Good morning.

“When politics are used to allocate resources, the resources all end up being allocated to politics.”

–          P.J. O’Rourke

USDA announced 120,000 tons of US HRW wheat sold to Egypt for ‘14/15 shipment

Overnight closes

  • SK down 3 ¾ at 1015
  • CK down 1 at 384 ½
  • WK down 1 ½ at 502 ¼
  • KC WK up a ¼ at 538 ¼
  • MWK down 2 ¼ at 565 ¾
  • SMK down 2.50 at 343.20
  • BOK up 14 at 3156
  • RRK down 14 at 1057

Overnight volume

  • SK 19,461
  • CK 35,645
  • WK 8,927
  • KC WK 1,588
  • MWK 181
  • SMK 11,618
  • BOK 18,347
  • RRK 70

Opening calls

  • Beans 3-5 lower
  • Corn steady to 2 lower
  • Wheat 1-3 lower
  • KC wheat steady mixed
  • Minneapolis wheat  1-3 lower
  • Meal  2.00-3.00 lower
  • Bean oil 10-20 higher
  • Rice 10-20 lower

Dollar and stock market lower. Crude, gold ,and silver higher

Nikkei down .10%

Hang Seng up .1%

Shanghai Index down .6%

HSBC flash China mfg PMI at 50.1 (four month high) , expecting 49.5 and vs. January final of 49.7

Weekly API energy inventory report from yesterday afternoon

  • Crude a build of 8.9 MB expecting a build of 4.0 MB
  • Gas a draw of 1.6 MB expecting a draw of 1.5 MB
  • Distillates a draw of 2.4 MB expecting a draw of 3.0 MB

China markets resumed trading last night after being off for a week long holiday.

China grain market closings – beans down 48, corn up 14, meal up 44, palm oil down 82, and bean oil down 64

Malaysian palm oil down 11

SGS estimated Malaysia’s Feb 1-25th palm oil exports at 815,763 tons down 7.1%from a month ago

Intertek estimated Malaysia’s Feb 1-25th palm oil exports at 827,273 tons down 6.6% from a month ago

Hearing China bought 2 cargoes of US beans this week, on off the Gulf and one from the PNW.

Talk/Reports of South American soymeal booking into the US east coast

USDA attaché in Paraguay estimated Paraguay’s ‘15/16 bean crop at a record 9.2 MMT vs. ‘14/15 estimate of 8.5 MMT

A main access road to Brazil’s Port of Santos was cleared early on Wednesday after a truck drivers’ strike dispersed , though other roads in the country remained blocked as protests stretched into a second week –Reuters

Commercial sources in Brazil have not yet reported any significant logistical problems with the truck strike

Russian Prime Minister said he sees no need yet to impose export duties on barley, rye, and corn

Receipt Registrations as of yesterday afternoon – No changes

  • Wheat  = 134
  • Oats = 98
  • Corn = 1,017
  • Ethanol = 155
  • DDGs = 0
  • Beans = 1
  • Bean oil = 3,335
  • Soymeal = 0
  • Rice = 1,226
  • KC wheat = 168
  • Minneapolis wheat = 110

Moving averages

  • May bean 50 day 1013 ½
  • May bean 100 day 1016
  • May corn 20 day 390
  • May corn 50 day 400 ¼
  • May corn 100 day 393
  • May corn 200 day 404 ¼
  • May Minneapolis wheat 20 day  573
  • May bean oil 20 day 3153
  • May bean oil 50 day 3221
  • May bean oil 100 day 3272
  • May meal 50 day 335.40
  • May meal 100 day 334.50
  • May meal 200 day 346.60

Open interest as of yesterday’s close

  • Total corn 1,296,492 open, down 8,806
  • Total beans 680,699 open, up 58
  • Total meal 361,317 open, down 3,445
  • Total bean oil 365,582 open, down 10,805
  • Total wheat 402,419 open, down 2,737
  • Total KC wheat 158,000 open, up 2,449

Upcoming reports/events

  • Weekly DOE energy inventory report comes out today at 930 am CST. Expecting
    • Crude a build of 4.0 MB
    • Gas a draw of 2.0 MB
    • Distillates a draw of 3.5 MB
  • Weekly US ethanol plant production report comes out today at 930 am CST
  • Position day for March futures is tomorrow. Traders should be out of long positions by the close or risk delivery. Expectations for deliveries Thursday night are
    • Beans 0
    • Meal 0
    • Bean oil 500 -3,000
    • Wheat 0
    • KC wheat 0-100
    • Minneapolis wheat 0-100
    • Corn up to 1,017
  • Weekly US jobless claims report comes out tomorrow at 730 am CST
  • Weekly US export sales report comes out tomorrow at 730 am CST
  • Weekly EIA Nat Gas storage report comes out tomorrow at 930 am CST expecting -236 BCF
  • First notice day for March futures is Friday February 27th.
  • On Monday March 2nd Kansas, Nebraska, Illinois, Oklahoma, Colorado, and the Dakotas will put out their monthly crop progress reports.
  • USDA March supply and demand and crop production report comes out on Tuesday March 10th
  • FOMC two day policy meeting comes out on Tuesday and Wednesday March 17-18
  • USDA 2015 US acreage report comes out on Tuesday March 31st
  • Weekly USDA crop progress report resumes Monday April 6th. Reports come out every Monday at 3 pm CST.
  • Stats Canada comes out with Canadian production estimates on April 23rd
  • USDA to restart month Census crush reports in July 2015

Data sources: DowJones , Bloomberg, Reuters , DTN news, barchart.com ,CME Group, and NYSE