News From The Grain Floor 2/24/15

Good morning,

“One thing that I think about finance is that it is overly democratized. Dentistry is not practiced by selling people  dental equipment with voluminous instructions and hoping that they’ll be good at repairing their own teeth. ”

–          Matt Levine

Egypt GASC is in for US HRW, US soft white and or US SRW wheat for April shipment.

No USDA announcement this morning.

Overnight closes

  • SK up 9 ¼ at 1010 ¾
  • CK up 1 ¾ at 388 ½
  • WK up 2 at 506
  • KC WK up 6 ¾ at 542 ¾
  • MWK up 2 ¼ at 570 ¼
  • SMK up 4.50 at 343.00
  • BOK up 8 at 3141
  • RRK up 8.50 at 1080.50

Overnight volume

  • SK 17,122
  • CK  13,648
  • WK 6,068
  • KC WK 1,757
  • MWK 274
  • SMK 11.207
  • BOK 17,751
  • RRK 70

Opening calls

  • Beans 7-10 higher
  • Corn 1-3 higher
  • Wheat 1-3 higher
  • KC wheat 6-8 higher
  • Minneapolis wheat 2-4 higher
  • Meal  4.00-5.00 higher
  • Bean oil 5-15 higher
  • Rice 7-10 higher

Gold lower. Silver, stock market, dollar, and crude higher

Nikkei up .74%

Hang Seng down .4%

Shanghai Index –  closed , markets resume trading tomorrow.

OPEC has no plans to hold an emergency meeting due to falling oil prices.

China grain markets closed today for Lunar New Year holiday. Trading resumes tomorrow.

Malaysian palm oil up 18.

Analysts expecting Indonesia’s January palm oil output to fall 7-11% from December

South Korea NOFI bought 197,000 tons of optional origin corn for September shipment

South Korea NOFI bought 65,000 tons of optional origin feed wheat for August shipment

South Korea NOFI bought 10,500 tons of optional origin barley for July shipment

Texas weekly crop progress report came out yesterday afternoon

  • 44% of their wheat crop is in good to excellent condition unchanged from a week ago
  • Southeast Texas corn planting is underway

Brazilian truckers strike enters 7th day , interrupting supplies of diesel and food across several commodity rich states at the start of harvest season – Reuters

Safras E Mercado said Brazil’s first corn crop is 20.7% harvested vs. 29.6% harvested a year ago

Safras e Mercado said Brazil’s second corn crop is 39.5% planted vs. 26.6% planted a year ago

Ciara-CEC said Argentina farmers sold $1.8 billion grains and oilseeds in 2015 , lowest in 8 years.

Ciara-CEC said Argentina farmers sold $180 million grains and oilseeds last week down 37% from the week prior.

Russia government estimated Russia’s Feb grain exports at 1.2 MMT vs. 2.0 MMT in January

Russia’s grain exports slow after export duty imposed.

UkrAgroConsult said Ukraine exported 589,000 tons of wheat between Feb 1-Feb 23rd

UkrAgroConsult said Ukraine exported 2.251 MMT of total grain between Feb 1-23rd

UkrAgroConsult said Ukraine exported 1.598 MMT of corn between Feb 1-23rd.

SAGIS said South Africa’s January corn ending stocks are at 4.037 MMT vs. 4.824 MMT at the end of December

SAGIS said South Africa corn exports at the end of January at 1.930 MMT

Rains in Brazil is causing some harvest delays. Harvest weather improves tomorrow

Favorable Argentina weather

Extreme cold in US continues.

Receipt Registrations as of yesterday afternoon – No changes

  • Wheat  = 134
  • Oats = 98
  • Corn = 1,017
  • Ethanol = 155
  • DDGs = 0
  • Beans = 1
  • Bean oil = 3,335
  • Soymeal = 0
  • Rice = 1,226
  • KC wheat = 168
  • Minneapolis wheat = 110

Moving averages

  • May bean 50 day  1014 ¼
  • May bean 100 day  1015 ¼
  • May corn 20 day 390 ½
  • May corn 50 day 400 ½
  • May corn 100 day  392 ½
  • May corn 200 day 405 ¼
  • May Minneapolis wheat 20 day  573 ½
  • May bean oil 20 day 3150
  • May bean oil 50 day 3222
  • May bean oil 100 day 3273
  • May meal 50 day 335.50
  • May meal 100 day 334.00
  • May meal 200 day 346.80

Open interest as of yesterday’s close

  • Total corn 1,308,008 open, down 1,791
  • Total beans 683,045 open, down 2,680
  • Total meal 366,072 open, down 5,411
  • Total bean oil 376,436 open, down 1,586
  • Total wheat 405,931 open, down 925
  • Total KC wheat 156,030 open, up 1,269+

Upcoming reports/events

  • Chinese markets closed today. Trading resumes tomorrow
  • Weekly API energy inventory comes out today at 330 pm CST.
  • Surveyors SGS and Intertek will estimate Malaysia’s Feb 1-25th palm oil exports tomorrow
  • Weekly DOE energy inventory report comes out tomorrow at 930 am CST. Expecting
    • Crude a build of 3.75 MB
    • Gas a draw of 2.0 MB
    • Distillates a draw of 3.75 MB
  • Weekly US ethanol plant production report comes out tomorrow at 930 am CST
  • Position day for March futures is Thursday February 26th . Traders should be out of long positions by the close or risk delivery.
  • First notice day for March futures is Friday February 27th.
  • On Monday March 2nd Kansas, Nebraska, Illinois, Oklahoma, Colorado, and the Dakotas will put out their monthly crop progress reports.
  • Weekly USDA crop progress report resumes Monday April 6th. Reports come out every Monday at 3 pm CST.
  • USDA March supply and demand and crop production report comes out on Tuesday March 10th
  • FOMC two day policy meeting comes out on Tuesday and Wednesday March 17-18
  • USDA 2015 US acreage report comes out on Tuesday March 31st
  • USDA to restart month Census crush reports in July 2015

Data sources: DowJones , Bloomberg, Reuters , DTN news, barchart.com ,CME Group, and NYSE