News From The Grain Floor-2/20/15

Good morning.

Advice is what we ask for when we already know the answer but wish we didn’t.

–          Erica Jong

March options expire today on the close.

No USDA announcements this morning

Overnight closes

  • SH down ¾ at 1006 ½
  • SK down 1 at 1010 ¼
  • CH down ¾ at 389
  • CK down 1 at 396 ¾
  • WH up 1 ¾ at 529 ½
  • WK up 1 ½ at 521
  • KC WH up 1 ½ at 546
  • KC WK up 1 ¼ at 546 ¾
  • MWH unchanged at 574
  • MWK down a ¼ at 574 ¼
  • SMH up .60 at 348.10
  • SMK up .40 at 340.10
  • BOH down 11 at 3172
  • BOK down 11 at 3193
  • RRH down 2.50 at 1077.50
  • RRK down 2.50 at 1100.50

Overnight volume

  • SH 8,851
  • SK 9,671
  • CH 9,785
  • CK 7,783
  • WH 2,891
  • WK 4,614
  • KC WH 597
  • KC WK 815
  • MWH 43
  • MWK 219
  • SMH 2,923
  • SMK 5,560
  • BOH 7,827
  • BOK 9,917
  • RRH 17
  • RRK 24

Opening calls

  • Beans steady lower
  • Corn steady lower
  • Wheat 1-3 higher
  • KC wheat 1-3 higher
  • Minneapolis wheat steady mixed
  • Meal steady – 1.00 higher
  • Bean oil 5-15 lower
  • Rice 1-3 lower

Stock market lower. Dollar, gold, silver, and crude higher .

Nikkei up .37%

Hang Seng –closed for the rest of the week for Lunar New Year holiday.

Shanghai Index –  closed until February 24th for Lunar New Year holiday. Markets resume trading on Wednesday Feb 25th.

Not a lot of fresh news this morning

China grain markets closed through February 24th for Lunar New Year holiday. Trading resumes Wednesday Feb 25th.

Malaysian palm oil closed, trading resumes Monday February 23rd.

Today is the last day of the annual USDA Outlook Forum. More projections

  • ‘15/16 US corn crop estimated at 13.595 BB vs. 14.216 BB in ‘14/15
  • ‘15/16 US bean crop estimated at 3.800 BB vs. 3.969 BB in ‘14/15
  • ‘15/16 US wheat crop estimated at 2.125 BB vs. 2.026 BB in ‘14/15
  • ‘15/16 US corn ending stocks estimated at 1.687 BB vs. 1.827 BB  in ‘14/15
  • ‘15/16 US corn yield estimated at 166.8 BPA vs. 171.0 BPA in ‘14/15
  • ‘15/16 US bean ending stocks at 430 MB vs. 385 MB in ‘14/15
  • ‘15/16 US bean yield estimated at 46.0 BPA vs. 47.8 BPA in ‘14/15
  • ‘15/16 US wheat ending stocks at 763 MB vs. 692 MB in ‘14/15
  • ‘15/16 US corn used for ethanol estimated at 5.225 BB
  • ‘15/16 US corn exports estimated at 1.85 BB
  • ’15/16 US bean crush estimated at 1.840 BB
  • ‘15/16 US bean exports estimated at 1.82 BB

Weekly US export sales report:

  • Wheat – ‘14/15 266,600 ‘15/16 38,800 (expecting 300 -500,000 tons)
  • Corn –  ‘14/15 932,200 ‘15/16 143,200 tons (expecting 650 -900,000 tons)
  • Beans – ‘14/15 505,600 ‘15/16 115,900 tons (expecting 375 – 550,000 tons)
  • Meal – ‘14/15 316,600 ‘15/16 35,900 tons (expecting 150 -300,000 tons)
  • Bean oil – ‘14/15 10,900 (expecting 10 -50,000 tons)

Export highlights

  • Wheat – Net sales of 266,600 metric tons for delivery in the 2014/2015 marketing year were down 35 percent from the previous week and 41 percent from the prior 4-week average. Increases were reported for Sri Lanka (64,500 MT, including 65,000 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 3,000 MT), Thailand (62,600 MT), Indonesia (62,200 MT, including 60,000 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 800 MT), South Korea (48,300 MT), Japan (42,900 MT), and Mexico (38,500 MT). Decreases were reported for unknown destinations (165,400 MT), Malaysia (2,000 MT), and El Salvador (1,200 MT). Net sales of 38,800 MT for 2015/2016 were for Italy (20,000 MT), the Philippines (9,000 MT), Colombia (5,500 MT), Guatemala (2,400 MT), and unknown destinations (1,900 MT). Exports of 391,900 MT were up 5 percent from the previous week and 9 percent from the prior 4-week average. The primary destinations were Thailand (92,700 MT), Indonesia (70,200 MT), Sri Lanka (64,500 MT), Mexico (39,200 MT), and Japan (34,300 MT).
  • Corn – Net sales of 932,200 MT for 2014/2015 were down 7 percent from the previous week and 25 percent from the prior 4-week average. Increases were reported for Taiwan (257,100 MT), South Korea (186,300 MT, including 136,000 MT switched from Japan), Japan (164,100 MT, including 112,600 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 18,300 MT), Mexico (148,100 MT), Morocco (60,400 MT, including 58,000 MT switched from unknown destinations), Algeria (42,800 MT, including 45,000 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 3,500 MT), Chile (35,000 MT, switched from unknown destinations), and Colombia (31,400 MT, including 27,500 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 16,300 MT). Decreases were reported for unknown destinations (106,500 MT) and Canada (2,600 MT). Net sales of 143,200 MT for 2015/2016 were reported for unknown destinations (136,800 MT) and Japan (6,400 MT). Exports of 696,200 MT were up 13 percent from the previous week, but down 5 percent from the prior 4-week average. The primary destinations were Japan (158,500 MT), Mexico (154,000 MT), Algeria (87,800 MT), Colombia (68,700 MT), Morocco (60,200 MT), Chile (35,000 MT), and Costa Rica (26,800 MT).
  • Beans – Net sales of 505,600 MT for 2014/2015 were down 32 percent from the previous week, but up 1 percent from the prior 4-week average. Increases were reported for China (205,100 MT, including 115,000 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 60,100 MT), the Netherlands (139,200 MT, including 130,000 MT switched from unknown destinations), Indonesia (130,700 MT), Japan (77,600 MT, including 45,300 MT switched from unknown destinations), Vietnam (68,500 MT, including 65,000 MT switched from unknown destinations), Portugal (65,000 MT, switched from Spain), South Korea (56,900 MT, including 61,600 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 4,700 MT), and Bangladesh (56,500 MT, including 52,000 MT switched from unknown destinations). Decreases were reported for unknown destinations (266,200 MT), Spain (65,000 MT), Egypt (6,700 MT), and Germany (5,100 MT). Net sales of 115,900 MT for 2015/2016 were for China (110,000 MT) and Japan (5,900 MT). Exports of 1,354,700 MT were down 16 percent from the previous week and 21 percent from the prior 4-week average. The primary destinations were China (690,200 MT), the Netherlands (139,200 MT), Vietnam (69,600 MT), Taiwan (65,700 MT), Portugal (65,000 MT), South Korea (57,000 MT), Bangladesh (56,500 MT), and Japan (51,300 MT).
  • Meal – Net sales of 316,600 MT for 2014/2015 were up 67 percent from the previous week and 19 percent from the prior 4-week average. Increases were reported for Thailand (88,700 MT, including 45,000 MT switched from unknown destinations), Mexico 51,600 MT), Denmark (48,900 MT, including 55,000 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 6,100 MT), Poland (25,800 MT, including 25,000 MT switched from unknown destinations), the Dominican Republic (20,200 MT), and Guatemala (18,000 MT, including 15,300 MT switched from unknown destinations). Decreases were reported for unknown destinations (18,100 MT), Spain (1,000 MT), and Canada (300 MT). Net sales of 35,900 MT for 2015/2016 were reported primarily for unknown destinations (23,100 MT) and Panama (9,200 MT). Exports of 384,800 MT were up 36 percent from the previous week and 53 percent from the prior 4-week average. The primary destinations were Thailand (49,400 MT), Denmark (48,900 MT), the Philippines (44,300 MT), Mexico (33,300 MT), France (31,700 MT), Egypt (28,200 MT), and Poland (25,800 MT).
  • Bean oil – Net sales of 10,900 MT for 2014/2015 were down 32 percent from the previous week and 26 percent from the prior 4-week average. Increases were reported for the Dominican Republic (4,000 MT), Mexico (3,300 MT), Peru (2,200 MT), and Costa Rica (1,000 MT). Exports of 9,800 MT were down 37 percent from the previous week and 58 percent from the prior 4-week average. The primary destinations were Mexico (4,000 MT), Jamaica (3,500 MT), Guatemala (1,000 MT), and Honduras (1,000 MT).

Receipt Registrations as of yesterday afternoon – No changes

  • Wheat  = 134
  • Oats = 98
  • Corn = 1,017
  • Ethanol = 155
  • DDGs = 0
  • Beans = 1
  • Bean oil = 3,335
  • Soymeal = 0
  • Rice = 1,226
  • KC wheat = 168
  • Minneapolis wheat = 110

Moving averages

  • March bean 50 day 1010 ½
  • March bean 100 day 1007 ¾
  • May bean 50 day 1016 ½
  • May bean 100 day 1014
  • March corn 20 day 383 ¼
  • March corn 50 day 393 ¼
  • March corn 100 day 383 ¼
  • May corn 20 day 391 ¼
  • May corn 50 day 401 ½
  • May corn 100 day  391 ¾
  • May corn 200 day 406 ½
  • March wheat 20 day 520 ¼
  • May wheat 20 day 520 ½
  • March KC wheat 20 day 552 ½
  • May KC wheat 20 day 555 ¼
  • March Minneapolis wheat 20 day 571 ¾
  • May Minneapolis wheat 20 day  575
  • March bean oil 20 day 3133
  • March bean oil 50 day 3207
  • March bean oil 100 day 3257
  • May bean oil 20 day 3154
  • May bean oil 50 day 3227
  • May bean oil 100 day 3278
  • March meal 20 day 334.90
  • March meal 50 day 342.60
  • March meal 100 day 338.60
  • March meal 200 day 349.80
  • May meal 20 day 327.80
  • May meal 50 day 336.00
  • May meal 100 day 333.10
  • May meal 200 day 347.30

Open interest as of yesterday’s close

  • Total corn 1,348,803 open, up 4,802
  • Total beans 704,115 open, up 6,863
  • Total meal 378,328 open, up 5,915
  • Total bean oil 384,684 open, up 739
  • Total wheat 416,557 open, up 7,572
  • Total KC wheat 158,437 open, up 1,093

Upcoming reports/events

  • Chinese markets closed through February 24th for Lunar New Year holiday. Trading resumes trading Wednesday Feb 25th.
  • Weekly COT report comes out today at 230 pm CST.
  • Surveyors SGS and Intertek Agri Services will estimate Malaysia’s Feb 1-20th palm oil exports on Monday Feb 23rd
  • Weekly US export inspections report comes out on Monday at 10 am CST
  • Position day for March futures is Thursday February 26th . Traders should be out of long positions by the close or risk delivery.
  • First notice day for March futures is Friday February 27th.
  • USDA to restart month Census crush reports in July 2015

Data sources: DowJones , Bloomberg, Reuters , DTN news, barchart.com ,CME Group, and NYSE