News From The Grain Floor 2/19/15

Good morning.

Don’t ever wrestle with a pig. You’ll both get dirty, but the pig will enjoy it.

–          Cale Yarborough

Egypt GASC is in for optional origin milling wheat for March shipment.

No USDA announcements this morning

March options expire tomorrow on the close. See below for open interest in March options.

Annual USDA Outlook Forum starts today and ends tomorrow.

  • Updated USDA ‘15/16 US balance sheet/acreage came out this morning.
    • 2015 US corn area estimated at 89.0 MA vs. previous estimate of 88.0 MA and vs. 2014 area of 90.6 MA
    • 2015 US bean area estimated at 83.5 MA vs. previous estimate of 84.0 MA and vs. 2014 area of 83.7 MA
    • 2015 US all wheat area estimated at 55.5 MA vs. previous estimate of 56.0 MA and vs. 56.8 MA in 2014
    • 2015 US all cotton area estimated at 9.70 MA vs. 11.04 MA in 2014
    • USDA sees average US corn price at $3.50 in ‘15/16
    • USDA sees average US soybean price at $9.00 in ‘15/16
    • USDA sees average US wheat price at $5.10 in ‘15/16
    • USDA sees fiscal 2015 US farm exports at $141.5 billion, down from 2014, but second highest on record
    • USDA sees 2015 net farm income at $73.6 billion, lowest since 2007.

Overnight closes

  • SH up 5 at 1000 ¾
  • SK up 6 at 1005 ½
  • CH down 1 at 382 ¾
  • CK down 1 ¼ at 390 ¾
  • WH down 1 ¼ at 526 ½
  • WK down 2 at 521 ¾
  • KC WH down 2 ¼ at 545 ¾
  • KC WK down 2 ¾ at 546 ¾
  • MWH down a ½ at 581 ½
  • MWK up a ¼ at 580 ½
  • SMH up 3.90 at 342.50
  • SMK up 3.30 at 334.80
  • BOH down 28 at 3173
  • BOK down 27 at 3193
  • RRH down 2.50 at 1085
  • RRK down 4.50 at 1106.50

Overnight volume

  • SH 32,857
  • SK 29,699
  • CH 16,855
  • CK 10,232
  • WH 3,639
  • WK 4,425
  • KC WH 1,334
  • KC WK 1,631
  • MWH 168
  • MWK 200
  • SMH 5,468
  • SMK 6,534
  • BOH 7,036
  • BOK 7,836
  • RRH 131
  • RRK 158

Opening calls

  • Beans 4-6 higher
  • Corn 1-3 lower
  • Wheat 1-3 lower
  • KC wheat 1-3 lower
  • Minneapolis wheat steady mixed
  • Meal 3.50-4.50 higher
  • Bean oil 20-30 lower
  • Rice 3-5 lower

Dollar, gold, and silver higher. Crude and stock market lower

Nikkei up .36%

Hang Seng –closed for the rest of the week for Lunar New Year holiday.

Shanghai Index –  closed until February 24th for Lunar New Year holiday. Markets resume trading on Wednesday Feb 25th.

Indonesia, South Korea, Taiwan also closed for the rest of the week for Lunar New Year holiday.

Weekly US jobless claims report came out this morning at -21K to 283K, expecting 290K

Weekly API energy inventory report from yesterday afternoon

  • Crude a build of 14.3 MB , expecting a build of 3.2 MB
  • Gas a build of 1.3 MB , expecting a build of 200,000 barrels
  • Distillates a draw of 2.7 MB , expecting a draw of 2.1 MB

China grain markets closed through February 24th for Lunar New Year holiday. Trading resumes Wednesday Feb 25th.

Malaysian palm oil closed, trading resumes Monday February 23rd.

Japan bought 101,128 tons of food wheat for March-April shipment. Breakdown:

  • 20,903 tons of US western white wheat
  • 22,290 tons of US HRW wheat
  • 22,570 tons of US dark northern spring wheat
  • 35,365 tons of Australian white wheat

Tunisia seeks 59,000 tons of optional origin durum wheat for March-April shipment.

Russia’s Ag Min said Russia’s winter grain crop may fall 40% in 2015, due to poor planting conditions.

  • Winter grain crop estimated at 28-30 MMT vs. 48.0 MMT a year ago

Hearing Mato Grosso bean harvest is 30% complete vs. 40% average

Hearing Mato Grosso bean yields are about 5% higher than a year ago

Hearing Brazilian bean harvest is 15-20% complete

South American weather forecasts remain favorable.

Bitter cold in US Midwest through the end of the week.

Receipt Registrations as of yesterday afternoon – 2 meal receipts canceled yesterday afternoon.

  • Wheat  = 134
  • Oats = 98
  • Corn = 1,017
  • Ethanol = 155
  • DDGs = 0
  • Beans = 1
  • Bean oil = 3,335
  • Soymeal = 0
    • 2 meal receipts were canceled yesterday afternoon out of Incobrasa Industries LTD, Gilman IL.
  • Rice = 1,226
  • KC wheat = 168
  • Minneapolis wheat = 110

Moving averages

  • March bean 100 day 1007
  • March corn 20 day 382 ½
  • March corn 50 day 393
  • March corn 100 day 382 ½
  • May corn 20 day 390 ½
  • May corn 50 day 401 ¼
  • May corn 100 day 391 ¼
  • March wheat 20 day 520 ¼
  • May wheat 20 day 521 ½
  • March KC wheat 20 day 555
  • May Minneapolis wheat 20 day 575 ½
  • March bean oil 20 day 3133
  • March bean oil 50 day 3207
  • March bean oil 100 day 3258
  • May bean oil 20 day 3154
  • May bean oil 50 day 3227
  • May bean oil 100 day 3278
  • March meal 20 day 333.70
  • March meal 50 day 342.70
  • March meal 100 day 338.00
  • May meal 20 day 326.70
  • May meal 50 day 336.10
  • May meal 100 day 332.60

March options expire tomorrow at 115 pm CST. Open interest in options as of yesterday’s close

  • CH 340 calls 6,452 open – puts 21,562 open
  • CH 350 calls 6,353 open – puts 25,204 open
  • CH 360 calls 8,472 open – puts 14,047 open
  • CH 370 calls 6,828 open – puts 16,594 open
  • CH 375 calls 2,054 open – puts 11,820 open
  • CH 380 calls 14,246 open – puts 20,918 open
  • CH 385 calls 4,796 open – puts 4,545 open
  • CH 390 calls 8,176 open – puts 7,056 open
  • CH 395 calls 5,129 open – puts 2,928 open
  • CH 400 calls 17,635 open – puts 11,171 open
  • SH 950 calls 263 open – puts 8,041 open
  • SH 960 calls 2,147 open – puts 13,548 open
  • SH 970 calls 4,255 open – puts 12,484 open
  • SH 980 calls 5,727 open – puts 12,833 open
  • SH 990 calls 4,769 open – puts 7,055 open
  • SH 1000 calls 7,364 open – puts 13,035 open
  • SH 1010 calls 3,190 open – puts 1,724 open
  • SH 1020 calls 6,466 open – puts 5,073 open
  • SMH 330 calls 2,853 open – puts 5,680 open
  • SMH 335 calls 430 open – puts 1,877 open
  • SMH 340 calls 2,126 open – puts 2,779 open
  • SMH 345 calls 872 open – puts 93 open
  • SMH 350 calls 3,484 open – puts 2,999 open
  • SMH 355 calls 329 open – puts 0 open
  • SMH 360 calls 3,118 open – puts 2,899 open
  • BOH 30 calls 1,122 open – puts 2,584 open
  • BOH 3050 calls 754 open – puts 2,796 open
  • BOH 31 calls 1,334 open – puts 1,905 open
  • BOH 3150 calls 689 open – puts 2,384 open
  • BOH 32 calls 1,184 open – puts 2,802 open
  • BOH 3250 calls 1,396 open – puts 1,826 open
  • BOH 33 calls 1,986 open – puts 855 open
  • WH 500 calls 1,943 open – puts 4,700 open
  • WH 510 calls 1,170 open – puts 2,823 open
  • WH 520 calls 1,764 open – puts 3,730 open
  • WH 530 calls 1,982 open – puts 3,577 open
  • WH 540 calls 2,320 open – puts 2,238 open
  • WH 550 calls 4,058 open – puts 4,464 open

Open interest as of Friday’s close

  • Total corn 1,350,206 open, down 11,950
  • Total beans 697,459 open, down 5,245
  • Total meal 372,794 open, up 875
  • Total bean oil 384,070 open, down 4,605
  • Total wheat 409,282 open, down 1,303
  • Total KC wheat 157,436 open, up 615

Upcoming reports/events

  • Chinese markets closed through February 24th for Lunar New Year holiday. Trading resumes trading Wednesday Feb 25th.
  • EIA Nat Gas storage report comes out today at 930 am CST, expecting – 111 BCF
  • Weekly DOE energy inventory report comes out today at 10 am CST, delayed due to US holiday on Monday , expecting
    • Crude a build of 3.0 MB
    • Gas a draw of 500,000 barrels
    • Distillates a draw of 2.0 MB
  • Weekly US ethanol plant production report comes out today at 10 am CST, delayed due to US holiday on Monday.
  • USDA to restart monthly US ethanol reports. The report was discontinued by the Census Bureau in 2011. First report is scheduled to come out tomorrow during the Agricultural Outlook Forum
  • Weekly US export sales report comes out tomorrow at 730 am CST, delayed due to holiday.
  • Last trading day for March options is tomorrow . Options expire at 115 pm CST
  • Weekly COT report comes out tomorrow at 230 pm CST.
  • Surveyors SGS and Intertek Agri Services will estimate Malaysia’s Feb 1-20th palm oil exports on Monday Feb 23rd
  • Position day for March futures is Thursday February 26th . Traders should be out of long positions by the close or risk delivery.
  • First notice day for March futures is Friday February 27th.
  • USDA to restart month Census crush reports in July 2015

Data sources: DowJones , Bloomberg, Reuters , DTN news, barchart.com ,CME Group, and NYSE