News From The Grain Floor 2/18/15

Good morning.

“It is better to be violent, if there is violence in our hearts, than to put on the cloak of nonviolence to cover impotence.”

–          Mahatma Gandhi

May beans, corn, wheat, KC wheat, Minneapolis wheat, meal, bean oil , oats , and rice are top step (spot month) this morning.

 Egypt GASC is in for US soft red or soft white wheat for April shipment.

 No USDA announcements this morning.

Overnight closes

  • SH down 2 at 1005 ¾
  • SK down 2 ¼ at 1009 ½
  • CH down 2 ¼ at 387 ¼
  • CK down 2 ½ at 395 ¼
  • WH up 1 ¾ at 536 ½
  • WK up a ¼ at 532
  • KC WH unchanged at 562 ¼
  • KC WK up a ¼ at 563
  • MWH unchanged at 588 ¾
  • MWK down ¾ at 586 ¾
  • SMH down .10 at 342.20
  • SMK down .30 at 334.90
  • BOH down 18 at 3214
  • BOK down 19 at 3233
  • RRH up 19 at 1087
  • RRK up 15.50 at 1103.50

 

Overnight volume

  • SH 9,747
  • SK 10,598
  • CH 9,830
  • CK 8,663
  • WH 6,905
  • WK 6,968
  • KC WH 777
  • KC WK 1,013
  • MWH 180
  • MWK 183
  • SMH 3,752
  • SMK 3,653
  • BOH 5,462
  • BOK 5,667
  • RRH 298
  • RRK 255

 

Opening calls

  • Beans 1-3 lower
  • Corn 1-3 lower
  • Wheat 1-2 higher
  • KC wheat steady better
  • Minneapolis wheat steady easier
  • Meal steady lower
  • Bean oil 10-20 lower
  • Rice 15-20 higher

 

Dollar and silver higher. Crude, gold, and stock market lower.

Nikkei up 1.18%

Hang Seng –closed for the rest of the week for Lunar New Year holiday.

Shanghai Index –  closed until February 24th for Lunar New Year holiday. Markets resume trading on Wednesday Feb 25th.

Feds to release the minutes of the last FOMC meeting today at 1 pm CST.

Brazil and Argentina markets resume trading today.

China grain markets closed through February 24th for Lunar New Year holiday. Trading resumes Wednesday Feb 25th.

Malaysian palm oil up 14.

Based on a Reuters survey Indonesia January palm oil output estimated at 2.056 MMT vs. 2.165 MMT

Based on a Reuters survey Indonesia’s January palm oil exports estimated at 1.658 MMT vs. December exports of 1.837 MMT

Based on a Reuters survey Indonesia’s January palm oil stocks estimated at 2.413 MMT vs. 2.325 MMT in December

Texas wheat conditions report from this week – 44% good to excellent unchanged from a week ago and vs. 17% a year ago .

Based on a Bloomberg survey 2015 US soybean planting area estimated at 86.028 MA (record) , up 2.8% from 2014.

Based on a Bloomberg survey 2015 US bean crop estimated at 3.856 BB down 2.8% from 2014 crop.

Based on a Bloomberg survey 2015 US corn planting area estimated at 89.091 MA (lowest since 2010) , down 1.7% from 2014.

Japan seeks 20,000 tons of feed wheat and 46,000 tons of barley via SBS tender for May shipment

India’s government – India’s ‘14/15 production estimates

  • India’s wheat crop estimated at 95.76 MMT vs. 95.85 MMT in ‘13/14
  • India’s rapeseed crop estimated at 7.36 MMT vs. 7.96 MMT in ‘13/14
  • India’s rice crop estimated at 103.04 MMT vs. 106.65 MMT in ‘13/14
  • India’s corn crop estimated at 22.97 MMT vs. 24.35 MMT in ‘13/14
  • India’s cotton crop estimated at 35.15 M bales vs. 36.59 MB in ‘13/14
  • India’s total grains crop estimated at 257.07 MMT vs. 265.57 MMT in ‘13/14

 

FranceAgriMer estimated France’s ‘14/15 soft wheat exports outside the EU at 9.8 MMT vs. previous estimate of 8.8 MMT

FranceAgriMer estimated France’s ‘14/15 soft wheat ending stocks at 3.63 MMT vs. previous estimate of 4.34 MMT

FranceAgriMer estimated France’s ‘14/15 barley ending stocks at 1.74 MMT vs. previous estimate of 1.49 MMT

FranceAgriMer estimated France’s ‘14/15 corn ending stocks at 4.15 MMT vs. previous estimate of 3.99 MMT

Ukraine’s Ag Min said Ukraine exported 23.4 MMT of grain between July 1-Feb 18th up .9% from a year ago

Ukraine Ag Min estimated Ukraine’s ’14.15 grain exports at 37.0 MMT vs. 32.8 MMT a year ago

South American weather forecasts remain favorable.

Dry weather in Malaysia, may hurt palm oil production.

Bitter cold in US Midwest through the end of the week.

 

Receipt Registrations as of yesterday afternoon – No changes.

  • Wheat  = 134
  • Oats = 98
  • Corn = 1,017
  • Ethanol = 155
  • DDGs = 0
  • Beans = 1
  • Bean oil = 3,335
  • Soymeal = 2
  • Rice = 1,226
  • KC wheat = 168
  • Minneapolis wheat = 110

 

Moving averages

  • March bean 50 day 1012 ¼
  • March bean 100 day 1006 ½
  • May bean 50 day 1018 ¼
  • May bean 100 day 1012 ½
  • March corn 20 day 383
  • March corn 50 day  393 ½
  • March corn 100 day 382 ¼
  • May corn 20 day 391 ¼
  • May corn 50 day 401 ½
  • May corn 100 day 390 ½
  • March KC wheat 20 day 555 ½
  • May KC wheat 20 day 558 ½
  • March Minneapolis wheat 100 day 591
  • March bean oil 50 day 3209
  • March bean oil 100 day 3260
  • May bean oil 50 day 3229
  • May bean oil 100 day 3280
  • March meal 50 day 343.10
  • March meal 100 day 337.60
  • May meal 50 day 336.50
  • May meal 100 day 332.40

 

Open interest as of Friday’s close

  • Total corn 1,362,483 open, down 2,448
  • Total beans 703,064 open, up 3,122
  • Total meal 372,094 open, up 7,302
  • Total bean oil 388,722 open, down 1,065
  • Total wheat 410,661 open, down 2,819
  • Total KC wheat 156,825 open, down 1,058

 

Upcoming reports/events

  • Chinese markets closed through February 24th for Lunar New Year holiday. Trading resumes trading Wednesday Feb 25th.
  • Weekly API energy inventory report comes out today at 330 pm CST
  • Malaysian markets will be closed tomorrow and Friday for Lunar New Year holiday, markets resume Monday Feb 23rd.
  • Annual USDA Outlook Forum is Thursday and Friday
    • Updated USDA ‘15/16 balance sheet/ acreage comes out Friday morning. Previous acreage estimates were
      • Corn acreage 88.0 MA
      • Bean acreage 84.0 MA
      • All wheat acreage 56.0 MA
  • Weekly US jobless claims come out tomorrow at 730 am CST.
  • EIA Nat Gas storage report comes out tomorrow at 930 am CST, expect – 111 BCF
  • Weekly DOE energy inventory report comes out tomorrow at 10 am CST, delayed due to US holiday on Monday , expecting
    • Crude a build of 3.0 MB
    • Gas a draw of 500,000 barrels
    • Distillates a draw of 2.0 MB
  • Weekly US ethanol plant production report comes out tomorrow at 10 am CST, delayed due to US holiday on Monday.
  • USDA to restart monthly US ethanol reports. The report was discontinued by the Census Bureau in 2011. First report is scheduled to come out on Friday during the Agricultural Outlook Forum
  • Weekly US export sales report comes out on Friday at 730 am CST, delayed due to holiday.
  • Last trading day for March options is Friday . Options expire at 115 pm CST
  • Weekly COT report comes out on Friday at 230 pm CST.
  • Surveyors SGS and Intertek Agri Services will estimate Malaysia’s Feb 1-20th palm oil exports on Monday Feb 23rd
  • Position day for March futures is Thursday February 26th . Traders should be out of long positions by the close or risk delivery.
  • First notice day for March futures is Friday February 27th.
  • USDA to restart month Census crush reports in July 2015

 

Data sources: DowJones , Bloomberg, Reuters , DTN news, barchart.com ,CME Group, and NYSE