News From The Grain Floor 2/17/15

Good morning.

 

“If you are not prepared to use force to defend civilization, then be prepared to accept barbarism.”

–          Thomas Sowell

 

No USDA announcements this morning.

 

NOPA January crush report comes out today at 11 am CST. Based on a Reuters survey expecting

  • Crush average estimate is 162.673 MB , range of estimates are 157.5 -166.135 MB. December crush was 165.383 MB and in January 2014 crush was 156.943 MB.
  • Bean oil stocks average estimate is 1.170 billion lbs. , range of estimates are 1.014 -1.281 billion lbs. December bean oil stocks were 1.068 B and in January 2014 bean oil stocks were 1.794 billion.
  • Meal exports – no estimate is given for meal exports. In December meal exports were 1,004,548 tons and in January 2014 meal exports were 1,005,302 tons.

 

Overnight closes

  • SH up 8 at 998 ½
  • CH up 2 ¼ at 389 ½
  • WH up 9 at 542
  • KC WH up 9 ¾ at 572 ½
  • MWH up 8 at 595
  • SMH up 4.10 at 336.40
  • BOH down 10 at 3230
  • RRH down 2 at 1050.50

 

Overnight volume

  • SH 15,333
  • CH 9,954
  • WH 7,193
  • KC WH 1,519
  • MWH 255
  • SMH 4,292
  • BOH  10,377
  • RRH 135

 

Opening calls

  • Beans 7-9 higher
  • Corn  2-4 higher
  • Wheat 8-10 higher
  • KC wheat   8-10 higher
  • Minneapolis wheat 7-9 higher
  • Meal 3.50-4.50 higher
  • Bean oil 5-15 lower
  • Rice  1-3 lower

 

Dollar, stock market, gold, silver, and crude oil all lower this morning.

 

Nikkei down .1%

Hang Seng up .2%

Shanghai Index up .8%

 

Brazil and Argentina markets closed today for Carnival.

 

China grain closings from today – beans down 8, corn unchanged, meal down 4, palm oil down 6, and bean oil down 6.

 

China grain closings from yesterday – beans down 41, corn down 2, meal up 35, palm oil up 54, and bean oil up 36.

 

Malaysian palm oil net change from today is down 28.

 

Malaysian palm oil net change from yesterday was up 25.

 

Malaysian government said yesterday they will keep palm oil export tax at 0 through the end of March. Malaysia was expected to resume taxing palm oil exports in March. Malaysia scrapped palm oil exports for five months to boost demand.

 

SGS estimated Malaysia’s Feb 1-15th palm oil exports at 510,832 tons down 6.3% from January 1-15th

 

Intertek Agri Services estimated Malaysia’s Feb 1-15th palm oil exports at 508,955 tons down 4.9% from Jan 1-15th

 

Hearing China bought 10-12 cargoes of Brazilian beans last week for March –April shipment.

 

China to auction 970,600 tons of wheat from reserves this week.

 

Japan seeks 101,128 tons of US and Australian wheat for March-April shipment.

 

Algeria seeks 50,000 tons of optional origin milling wheat for June shipment.

 

Bangladesh state grains buyer canceled 2 tenders to import 100,000 tons of optional origin wheat

 

Argentina authorizes export of an additional 1.0 MMT of wheat from the ‘14/15 season

 

Oil World said India’s Oct –Jan palm oil imports at 3.2 MMT vs. 3.0 MMT a year ago

 

Oil World said India imported 661,000 tons of bean oil between Oct –Jan vs. 340,000 tons a year ago

 

Oil World said India’s Oct –Jan sunflower oil imports at 603,000 tons vs. 482,000 tons a year ago

 

Oil World said India’s Oct- Jan rapeseed oil imports at 162,000 tons vs. 58,000 tons a year ago

 

Russia’s Grain Union said exporters still need to ship 1.0 MMT of wheat out of Russia to fulfill contracts signed before state export curbs –Reuters.

 

Russian Ag Min said Russia exported 23.616 MMT of grain between July 1- Feb 11 up 31.6% from a year ago.

 

SovEcon said Russia may export more than 2.0 MMT of wheat between Feb-June

 

Ukraine State Statistics Service said Ukraine Feb 1st grain stocks at 22.3 MMT up 14% from a year ago

 

Bitter cold in US Midwest.

 

South American weather remains favorable.

 

Receipt Registrations as of Friday afternoon – No changes.

  • Wheat  = 134
  • Oats = 98
  • Corn = 1,017
  • Ethanol = 155
  • DDGs = 0
  • Beans = 1
  • Bean oil = 3,335
  • Soymeal = 2
  • Rice = 1,226
  • KC wheat = 168
  • Minneapolis wheat = 110

 

March beans high on February 3rd was $9.99 , the high overnight was $9.99 ¾.

 

Moving averages

  • March bean 100 day 1005 ¾
  • March corn 20 day 383 ¼
  • March corn 50 day  393 ½
  • March wheat 100 day 549 ½
  • March KC wheat 20 day 557 ¼
  • March Minneapolis wheat 50 day 601 ¼
  • March Minneapolis wheat 100 day 590 ½
  • March bean oil 50 day 3208
  • March bean oil 100 day 3261
  • March meal 20 day 332.30
  • March meal 50 day 343.00
  • March meal 100 day 337.20

 

Open interest as of Friday’s close

  • Total corn 1,365,639 open, down 5,605
  • Total beans 700,248 open, down 10,212
  • Total meal 365,070 open, up 737
  • Total bean oil 389,919 open, up 421
  • Total wheat 413,666 open, down 3,550
  • Total KC wheat 157,912 open, down 904

 

Upcoming reports/events

  • Weekly US export inspections report comes out today at 10 am CST.
  • May corn, wheat, beans, meal , and bean oil goes top step (spot month) tomorrow.
  • Weekly API energy inventory report comes out tomorrow at 330 pm CST
  • Malaysian markets will be closed Thursday and Friday for Lunar New Year holiday, markets resume Monday Feb 23rd.
  • China markets will be closed Thursday -Wednesday for Lunar New Year holiday, markets resume trading February 26th
  • Annual USDA Outlook Forum is Thursday and Friday
  • Weekly US jobless claims come out on Thursday at 730 am CST.
  • EIA Nat Gas storage report comes out on Thursday at 930 am CST.
  • Weekly DOE energy inventory report comes out on Thursday at 10 am CST, delayed due to US holiday on Monday
  • Weekly US ethanol plant production report comes out on Thursday at 10 am CST, delayed due to US holiday on Monday.
  • USDA to restart monthly US ethanol reports. The report was discontinued by the Census Bureau in 2011. First report is scheduled to come out Feb 20th during the Agricultural Outlook Forum
  • Weekly US export sales report comes out on Friday at 730 am CST, delayed due to holiday.
  • Last trading day for March options is Friday February 20th. Options expire at 115 pm CST
  • Position day for March futures is Thursday February 26th . Traders should be out of long positions by the close or risk delivery.
  • First notice day for March futures is Friday February 27th.
  • USDA to restart month Census crush reports in July 2015

 

 

Data sources: DowJones , Bloomberg, Reuters , DTN news, barchart.com ,CME Group, and NYSE