News From The Grain Floor 2/13/15

Good morning.

 

“There are no accidents… there is only some purpose that we haven’t yet understood.”

–          Deepak Chopra

 

USDA announced 110,000 tons of US beans sold to China for ‘15/16 shipment.

 

Overnight closes

  • SH up 6 ¼ at 990
  • CH up 1 ¾ at 384 ¾
  • WH up 4 at 525 ¼
  • KC WH up 4 at 558
  • MWH up 4 at 578 ¼
  • SMH up 2.10 at 332.60
  • BOH up 10 at 3211
  • RRH up 3 at 1036.

 

Overnight volume

  • SH 21,139
  • CH 26,942
  • WH 9,081
  • KC WH 1,327
  • MWH 210
  • SMH 6,280
  • BOH 15,361
  • RRH 58

 

Opening calls

  • Beans 5-7 higher
  • Corn 1-3 higher
  • Wheat 3-5 higher
  • KC wheat  3-5 higher
  • Minneapolis wheat 3-5 higher
  • Meal 1.50-2.50 higher
  • Bean oil 5-15 higher
  • Rice 2-4 higher

 

Dollar index trading both sides. Crude, gold, silver, and stock market higher.

 

Nikkei down .37%

Hang Seng up 1.1%

Shanghai Index up 1%

 

China grain closings beans up 2, corn unchanged, meal up 28, palm oil up 50, bean oil up 60.

 

Malaysian palm oil down 1.

 

Mad cow disease confirmed in Canada, first case since 2011.

 

Wilmar International said China’s soybean crush margins are expected to stay positive from now on due to the recent drop in imports –Reuters.

 

Hearing China buying soymeal cargoes from Brazil this week for March shipment.

 

Taiwan bought 60,000 tons of US corn for April shipment.

 

Philippines, Thailand, and South Korea seeking French wheat cargoes.

 

South Korea seeks 44,000 tons of rice for May shipment

 

Solvent Extractors Association of India said India imported 1,095,466 tons of veg oils in January vs. 1,139,586 tons in December

 

Solvent Extractors Association of India said India imported 658,670 tons of palm oil in January vs. 836,447 tons in December.

 

Solvent Extractors Association of India said India imported 224,430 tons of bean oil in January up 131% from a month ago

 

Solvent Extractors Association of India said India imported 155,811 tons of sunflower oil in January up 3% from a month ago.

 

Threat of truckers strike in Santos , Brazil.

 

DERAL said Parana’s soybean harvest is 17% complete vs. 12% a week ago

 

DERAL said Parana’s corn harvest is 11% complete vs. 8% a week ago

 

DERAL said Parana’s Safrinha corn planting is 31% complete vs. 25% a week ago

 

Buenos Aires Grains Exchange – weekly Argentina crop report

  • Argentina’s ‘14/15 bean area estimated at 20.4 MH unchanged from previous estimate
  • Argentina’s ‘14/15 bean crop estimated at 57.0 MMT unchanged from previous estimate
  • Argentina’s ‘14/15 corn area estimated at 3.14 MH vs. previous estimate of 3.0 MH
  • Argentina’s ‘14/15 corn crop estimated at 22.5 MMT, first estimate made for the season.
  • Argentina’s ‘14/15 sunflower harvest is 32.3% complete vs. 15.3% a week ago and vs. 38.3% a year ago
  • Argentina’s ‘14/15 sunflower crop estimated at 2.4 MMT unchanged from previous estimate.

 

Receipt Registrations as of yesterday afternoon – No changes.

  • Wheat  = 134
  • Oats = 98
  • Corn = 1,017
  • Ethanol = 155
  • DDGs = 0
  • Beans = 1
  • Bean oil = 3,335
  • Soymeal = 2
  • Rice = 1,226
  • KC wheat = 168
  • Minneapolis wheat = 110

 

Moving averages

  • March bean 20 day 976 ½
  • March corn 20 day 382 ¾
  • March corn 50 day 393 ¼
  • March corn 100 day 381 ¼
  • March wheat 20 day 520 ½
  • March KC wheat 20 day 557 ½
  • March Minneapolis wheat 20 day 571 ½
  • March bean oil 20 day 3144
  • March bean oil 50 day 3207
  • March bean oil 100 day 3261
  • March meal 20 day 331.80
  • March meal 100 day 336.90

 

Open interest as of yesterday’s close

  • Total corn 1,372,422 open, up 3,999
  • Total beans 711,364 open, up 3,121
  • Total meal 365,004 open, up 687
  • Total bean oil 389,601 open, down 575
  • Total wheat 417,734 open, down 1,670
  • Total KC wheat 158,822 open, up 1,137

 

Upcoming reports/events

  • Weekly COT report comes out today at 230 pm CST.
  • China to auction 970,600 tons of wheat from reserves next week.
  • Malaysia to resume taxing palm oil exports in March
    • Malaysia scrapped taxes for 5 months to boost demand
    • Government will announce details on Feb 16th.
  • Surveyors SGS and Intertek Agri Services will estimate Malaysia’s Feb 1-15th palm oil exports on Monday.
  • US markets will be closed Monday February 16th for Presidents Day holiday. See attachment for CME holiday trading schedule.
  • Brazil and Argentina markets will be closed Monday and Tuesday for Carnival
  • Weekly US export inspections report comes out on Tuesday at 10 am CST.
  • NOPA January crush report comes out on Tuesday at 11 am CST. Based on a Reuters survey expecting
    • Crush average estimate is 162.673 MB , range of estimates are 157.5 -166.135 MB. December crush was 165.383 MB and in January 2014 crush was 156.943 MB.
    • Bean oil stocks average estimate is 1.170 billion lbs. , range of estimates are 1.014 -1.281 billion lbs. December bean oil stocks were 1.068 B and in January 2014 bean oil stocks were 1.794 billion.
    • Meal exports – no estimate is given for meal exports. In December meal exports were 1,004,548 tons and in January 2014 meal exports were 1,005,302 tons.
  • May corn, wheat, beans, meal , and bean oil goes top step (spot month) on Wednesday.
  • Malaysian markets will be closed Feb 19-20th for Lunar New Year holiday, markets resume Monday Feb 23rd.
  • China markets will be closed February 19-25th for Lunar New Year holiday, markets resume trading February 26th
  • Annual USDA Outlook Forum is Thursday – Friday February 19th and 20th
  • USDA to restart monthly US ethanol reports. The report was discontinued by the Census Bureau in 2011. First report is scheduled to come out Feb 20th during the Agricultural Outlook Forum
  • Last trading day for March options is Friday February 20th. Options expire at 115 pm CST
  • Position day for March futures is Thursday February 26th . Traders should be out of long positions by the close or risk delivery.
  • First notice day for March futures is Friday February 27th.
  • USDA to restart month Census crush reports in July 2015

 

 

Data sources: DowJones , Bloomberg, Reuters , DTN news, barchart.com ,CME Group, and NYSE