News From The Grain Floor 2/12/15

Good morning.

 

Let me tell you the truth. The truth is what is, and what should be is a fantasy

–          Lenny Bruce

 

No USDA announcements this morning.

 

Overnight closes

  • SH up 2 ¼ at 980
  • CH down a ½ at 385 ¼
  • WH up ¾ at 525 ¼
  • KC WH down 2 at 557 ¼
  • MWH down a ¼ at 577
  • SMH up 1.60 at 331.20
  • BOH down 7 at 3168
  • RRH up 3 at 1041

 

Overnight volume

  • SH 16,962
  • CH 11,988
  • WH 8,209
  • KC WH 849
  • MWH 189
  • SMH 4,519
  • BOH 15,657
  • RRH 56

 

Opening calls

  • Beans 1-3 higher
  • Corn steady -1 lower
  • Wheat steady to 1 higher
  • KC wheat  1-3 lower
  • Minneapolis wheat steady mixed
  • Meal 1.00-2.00 higher
  • Bean oil 5-15 lower
  • Rice 2-4 higher

 

Dollar lower. Stock market, gold, silver, and crude higher

 

Nikkei up 1.85%

Hang Seng up .4%

Shanghai Index up .5%

 

Weekly US jobless claims came out this morning at +25K to 304K expecting 290K

 

China grain closings beans up 13, corn down 2, meal up 1, palm oil down 18, and bean oil down 10

 

Malaysian palm oil up 12.

 

Malaysia to resume taxing palm oil exports in March

  • Malaysia scrapped taxes for 5 months to boost demand
  • Government will announce details on Feb 16th.

 

CONAB came out today with their Brazilian crop estimate updates.

  • ‘14/15 Brazilian bean crop estimated at 94.6 MMT vs. previous estimate of 95.9 MMT
  • ‘14/15 Brazilian bean exports estimated at 47.8 MMT vs. previous estimate of 49.6 MMT
  • ‘14/15 Brazilian corn crop estimated at 78.4 MMT  vs. previous estimate of 79.1 MMT

 

Weekly US export sales report came out today at 730 am CST

  • Wheat = ‘14/15 409,300 ‘15/16 9,500 (expecting 300 -500,000 tons)
  • Corn = ‘14/15 1.0 million ‘15/16 117,700 (expecting 600 -800,000 tons)
  • Beans = ‘14/15 745,400 tons ‘15/16 800 (expecting 250 -450,000 tons)
  • Meal = ‘14/15 189,400 ‘15/16 45,100 (expecting 150 -350,000 tons)
  • Bean oil = ‘14/15 16,100 (expecting 10 -50,000 tons)

 

Export highlights

  • Wheat – Net sales of 409,300 metric tons for delivery in the 2014/2015 marketing year were up 3 percent from the previous week, but down 3 percent from the prior 4-week average. Increases were reported for unknown destinations (128,000 MT), Taiwan (86,800 MT), Thailand (55,000 MT), Japan (51,100 MT), Brazil (25,000 MT), and Honduras (12,700 MT). Decreases were reported for El Salvador (1,000 MT). Net sales of 9,500 MT for 2015/2016 were for Honduras. Exports of 373,800 MT were down 15 percent from the previous week, but up 16 percent from the prior 4-week average. The primary destinations were Mexico (68,100 MT), Nigeria (67,100 MT), China (61,700 MT), South Korea (39,000 MT), and Japan (33,900 MT).
  • Corn – Net sales of 1,003,100 MT for 2014/2015 were up 19 percent from the previous week, but down 17 percent from the prior 4-week average. Increases were reported for Mexico (427,900 MT), Japan (172,800 MT, including 42,700 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 17,600 MT), Colombia (71,600 MT), South Korea (69,000 MT), Saudi Arabia (69,000 MT, including 65,000 MT switched from unknown destinations), Portugal (68,200 MT, including 62,000 MT switched from unknown destinations), Iran (66,000 MT), and the Dominican Republic (49,600 MT, including 26,500 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 800 MT). Decreases were reported for unknown destinations (59,000 MT), the French West Indies (6,000 MT), and Canada (5,700 MT). Net sales of 117,700 MT for 2015/2016 were reported for Mexico (81,100 MT) and Japan (36,600 MT). Exports of 618,900 MT were down 13 percent from the previous week and 9 percent from the prior 4-week average. The primary destinations were Mexico (247,900 MT), Japan (91,900 MT), Saudi Arabia (69,000 MT), Portugal (68,200 MT), the Dominican Republic (49,300 MT), Guatemala (32,500 MT), and Colombia (24,400 MT).
  • Beans – Net sales of 745,400 MT for 2014/2015 were up 52 percent from the previous week and 29 percent from the prior 4-week average. Increases reported for China (603,300 MT, including 172,500 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 17,600 MT), Indonesia (82,100 MT, including 75,000 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 2,500 MT), Germany (70,000 MT, switched from unknown destinations), Pakistan (67,000 MT), Bangladesh (55,000 MT), Mexico (39,300 MT), and Vietnam (6,000 MT), were partially offset by decreases for unknown destinations (147,300 MT) and Japan (54,500 MT). Net sales of 800 MT for 2015/2016 were for Japan. Exports of 1,603,100 MT were down 26 percent from the previous week and 8 percent from the prior 4-week average. The primary destinations were China (1,157,700 MT), Indonesia (120,200 MT), Germany (64,900 MT), Mexico (63,900 MT), Pakistan (51,000 MT), Tunisia (33,000 MT), Russia (31,100 MT), and Taiwan (19,100 MT).
  • Meal – Net sales of 189,400 MT for 2014/2015 were down 36 percent from the previous week and 20 percent from the prior 4-week average. Increases were reported for the Philippines (86,500 MT), Spain (71,600 MT, including 75,600 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 4,000 MT), Canada (41,800 MT), Egypt (33,000 MT, including 30,000 MT switched from unknown destinations), Poland (24,900 MT, including 19,400 MT switched from unknown destinations), and Panama (16,300 MT). Decreases were reported for unknown destinations (115,900 MT), France (4,400 MT), Mexico (2,400 MT), and the French West Indies (2,300 MT). Net sales of 45,100 MT for 2015/2016 were reported for Spain (45,000 MT) and Canada (100 MT). Exports of 283,100 MT were up 96 percent from the previous week, but down 3 percent from the prior 4-week average. The primary destinations were Spain (74,600 MT), the Philippines (45,500 MT), Egypt (33,000 MT), Mexico (29,000 MT), the Dominican Republic (26,200 MT), Poland (25,000 MT), and Canada (9,700 MT).
  • Bean oil – Net sales of 16,100 MT for 2014/2015 were up 7 percent from the previous week, but down 11 percent from the prior 4-week average. Increases were reported for Peru (14,700 MT), South Korea (10,700 MT), Jamaica (3,500 MT), and Mexico (700 MT). Decreases were reported for unknown destinations (14,000 MT). Exports of 15,400 MT were down 41 percent from the previous week and 39 percent from the prior 4-week average. The primary destinations were South Korea (10,700 MT), Mexico (4,100 MT), and Canada (400 MT).

 

Today is the last day of the Goldman Sachs roll. Roll ends tomorrow. GS has been rolling long March positions into May.

 

Receipt Registrations as of yesterday afternoon – No changes from yesterday afternoon.

  • Wheat  = 134
  • Oats = 98
  • Corn = 1,017
  • Ethanol = 155
  • DDGs = 0
  • Beans = 1
  • Bean oil = 3,335
  • Soymeal = 2
  • Rice = 1,226
  • KC wheat = 168
  • Minneapolis wheat = 110

 

Moving averages

  • March bean 20 day 976 ½
  • March corn 20 day 382 ½
  • March corn 50 day 393 ¼
  • March corn 100 day 381
  • March wheat 20 day 521 ½
  • March KC wheat 20 day 558
  • March Minneapolis wheat 20 day 572 ¼
  • March bean oil 20 day 3148
  • March bean oil 50 day 3206
  • March meal 20 day 331.60
  • March meal 100 day 336.60

 

Open interest as of yesterday’s close

  • Total corn 1,368,952 open, up 10,402
  • Total beans 709,027 open, down 17,741
  • Total meal 364,686 open, down 225
  • Total bean oil 390,204 open, up 1,400
  • Total wheat 420,909 open, down 3,195
  • Total KC wheat 157,691 open, down 2,509

 

Upcoming reports/events

  • Weekly EIA Nat Gas storage report comes out today at 930 am CST , expecting -168 BCF.
  • CEC comes out tomorrow with their South African crop estimates .
    • Based on a Bloomberg survey South Africa’s corn crop estimated at 14.3 MMT vs. 11.7 MMT a year ago
  • Weekly COT report comes out tomorrow at 230 pm CST.
  • US markets will be closed Monday February 16th for Presidents Day holiday. See attachment for CME holiday trading schedule.
  • China to auction 970,600 tons of wheat from reserves next week.
  • NOPA January crush report comes out on Tuesday Feb 17th at 11 am CST.
  • Brazil and Argentina markets will be closed Monday and Tuesday February 16-17th for Carnival
  • May corn, wheat, beans, meal , and bean oil goes top step (spot month) on Wednesday February 18th.
  • China markets will be closed February 19-25th for Lunar New Year holiday, markets resume trading February 26th
  • Annual USDA Outlook Forum is Thursday – Friday February 19th and 20th
  • USDA to restart monthly US ethanol reports. The report was discontinued by the Census Bureau in 2011. First report is scheduled to come out Feb 20th during the Agricultural Outlook Forum
  • Last trading day for March options is Friday February 20th. Options expire at 115 pm CST
  • Position day for March futures is Thursday February 26th . Traders should be out of long positions by the close or risk delivery.
  • First notice day for March futures is Friday February 27th.
  • USDA to restart month Census crush reports in July 2015

 

 

Data sources: DowJones , Bloomberg, Reuters , DTN news, barchart.com ,CME Group, and NYSE