News From The Grain Floor 2/11/15

Good morning.

 

There’s a fine line between fishing and just standing on the shore like an idiot.

–          Steven Wright

 

No USDA announcements this morning.

 

Overnight closes

  • SH down 2 ¼ at 966 ¾
  • CH down 2 at 386
  • WH down 5 at 516 ¾
  • KC WH down 3 at 551
  • MWH down a ¼ at 569 ¾
  • SMH  down .40 at 326.50
  • BOH down 19 at 3126
  • RRH up 3 at 1026.50

 

Overnight volume

  • SH 17,773
  • CH 9,301
  • WH 6,770
  • KC WH 1,084
  • MWH 597
  • SMH 4,530
  • BOH 14,967
  • RRH 103

 

Opening calls

  • Beans 2-4 lower
  • Corn 1-3 lower
  • Wheat 4-6 lower
  • KC wheat 2-4 lower
  • Minneapolis wheat steady easier
  • Meal steady to 1.00 lower
  • Bean oil 15-25 lower
  • Rice 2-4 higher

 

Dollar, gold, and silver higher. Crude and stock market lower.

 

Japan markets are closed today for holiday.

Hang Seng down .87%

Shanghai Index up .5%

 

Weekly API energy inventory report from yesterday afternoon

  • Crude a build of 1.6 MB expecting a build of 3.7 MB
  • Gas a build of 1.6 MB expecting a build of 200,000 barrels
  • Distillates a build of 497,000 barrels expecting a draw of 817,000 barrels

 

China grain closings beans down 8, corn down 3, soymeal down 3, palm oil up 6, and bean oil down 16

 

Malaysian palm oil down 22.

 

Oil World said global oil meal prices are likely to be weak in coming months as an increase in soybean crushings will raise the proportion of oilmeals produced from seed processing. – Reuters

 

China sold 8,098 tons, or 21% of total offered, of imported wheat from reserves. They offered 37,810 tons

 

China sold 34% of total offered domestic wheat from reserves. They offered 805,872 tons.

 

South Korea NOFI bought 128,000 tons of optional origin corn for August –September shipment

 

South Korea NOFI bought 55,000 tons of optional origin feed wheat for June shipment.

 

Egypt FIHC seeks 50,000 tons of bean oil for May –July shipment.

 

Lanworth South American production estimates

  • Argentina ‘14/15 corn crop estimated at 28.8 MMT vs. previous estimate of 28.5
  • Argentina ‘14/15 bean crop estimated at 59.7 MMT vs. previous estimate of 59.5 MMT
  • Brazilian ‘14/15 corn crop estimated at 75.5 MMT vs. previous estimate of 75.7 MMT
  • Brazilian ‘14/15 bean crop estimated at 94.5 MMT  vs. previous estimate of 96.5 MMT

 

USDA to release updated baseline acreage projections today. According to Reuters USDA confirmed it will make no changes on Feb 11th to long term supply and demand tables released on December 18th.

  • The full long-term report due Wednesday and the figures released in December are available at www.usda.gov/oce.
  • On December 18th the USDA estimated ‘15/16 US corn planting area at 88.0 MA
  • On December 18th the USDA estimated ‘15/16 US bean planting area at 84.0 MA

 

Favorable South American weather .

 

Today is the 4th  day of the Goldman Sachs roll. Roll ends tomorrow. GS has been rolling long March positions into May.

 

Receipt Registrations as of yesterday afternoon – No changes from yesterday afternoon.

  • Wheat  = 134
  • Oats = 98
  • Corn = 1,017
  • Ethanol = 155
  • DDGs = 0
  • Beans = 1
  • Bean oil = 3,335
  • Soymeal = 2
  • Rice = 1,226
  • KC wheat = 168
  • Minneapolis wheat = 110

 

Moving averages

  • March corn 20 day 382 ½
  • March corn 50 day 393 ½
  • March corn 100 day 380 ½
  • March wheat 20 day 521 ½
  • March KC wheat 20 day 560
  • March Minneapolis wheat 20 day 572
  • March bean oil 20 day 3151
  • March bean oil 50 day 3206
  • March meal 20 day 331.60

 

Open interest as of yesterday’s close

  • Total corn 1,358,634 open, up 7,750
  • Total beans 727,415 open, up 5,650
  • Total meal 365,022 open, up 5,138
  • Total bean oil 388,872 open, down 2,500
  • Total wheat 424,215 open, down 1,373
  • Total KC wheat 160,220 open, down 3,051

 

Upcoming reports/events

  • Weekly DOE energy inventory report comes out today at 930 am CST. Expecting
    • Crude a build of 3.75 MB
    • Gas a build of 200,000 barrels
    • Distillates a draw of 1.25 MB
  • Weekly US ethanol plant production report comes out today at 930 am CST
  • CONAB comes out tomorrow with their Brazilian crop estimate updates. Previous estimates were
    • ‘14/15 Brazilian bean crop estimated at 95.9 MMT
    • ‘14/15 Brazilian bean exports estimated at 49.6 MMT
    • ‘14/15 Brazilian corn crop estimated at 79.1 MMT
  • Weekly US jobless claims report comes out tomorrow at 730 am CST
  • Weekly US export sales report comes out tomorrow at 730 am CST
  • Weekly EIA Nat Gas storage report comes out tomorrow at 930 am CST , expecting -164 BCF.
  • CEC comes out on Friday with their South African crop estimates .
    • Based on a Bloomberg survey South Africa’s corn crop estimated at 14.3 MMT vs. 11.7 MMT a year ago
  • US markets will be closed Monday February 16th for Presidents Day holiday. See attachment for CME holiday trading schedule.
  • China to auction 970,600 tons of wheat from reserves next week.
  • Brazil and Argentina markets will be closed Monday and Tuesday February 16-17th for Carnival
  • May corn, wheat, beans, meal , and bean oil goes top step (spot month) on Wednesday February 18th.
  • China markets will be closed February 19-25th for Lunar New Year holiday, markets resume trading February 26th
  • Annual USDA Outlook Forum is Thursday – Friday February 19th and 20th
  • USDA to restart monthly US ethanol reports. The report was discontinued by the Census Bureau in 2011. First report is scheduled to come out Feb 20th during the Agricultural Outlook Forum
  • Last trading day for March options is Friday February 20th. Options expire at 115 pm CST
  • Position day for March futures is Thursday February 26th . Traders should be out of long positions by the close or risk delivery.
  • First notice day for March futures is Friday February 27th.
  • USDA to restart month Census crush reports in July 2015

 

 

Data sources: DowJones , Bloomberg, Reuters , DTN news, barchart.com ,CME Group, and NYSE