News From The Grain Floor 2/10/15

Good morning.

 

Liberals are very broadminded: they are always willing to give careful consideration to both sides of the same side.

–          Anonymous

 

USDA February supply and demand and world production report comes out today at 11 am CST. See below or attachment for estimates for the report.

 

No USDA announcements this morning.

 

Overnight closes

  • SH down 2 ¾ at 975 ¾
  • CH down 1 ¾ at 389 ½
  • WH down 3 ¾ at 526
  • KC WH down 4 ½ at 559
  • MWH down 3 ½ at 572 ½
  • SMH  down 1.20 at 328.40
  • BOH down 24 at 3177
  • RRH down 3.50 at 1040

 

Overnight volume

  • SH 13,269
  • CH 26,769
  • WH 6,296
  • KC WH 772
  • MWH 214
  • SMH 6,495
  • BOH  10,255
  • RRH 186

 

Opening calls

  • Beans 2-4 lower
  • Corn 1-3 lower
  • Wheat 3-5 lower
  • KC wheat 4-6 lower
  • Minneapolis wheat 3-5 lower
  • Meal .50-1.50 lower
  • Bean oil 20-30 lower
  • Rice 3-5 lower

 

Gold, silver, and crude lower. Dollar and stock market higher

 

Nikkei down .33%

Hang Seng unchanged

Shanghai Index up 1.5%

 

China grain closings beans up 6, corn up 7, meal up 17, palm oil up 8, bean oil down 2.

 

Malaysian palm oil  down 17.

 

Malaysian Palm Oil Board came out this morning with their January palm oil data report

  • January palm oil exports at 1.184 MMT vs. average estimate of 1.29 MMT and vs. December exports of 1.52 MMT
  • January palm oil stocks at  1.77 MMT vs. average estimate of 1.29 MMT and vs. 2.01 MMT in December
  • January palm oil output at 1.16 MMT vs. average estimate of 1.19 MMT and vs. 1.36 MMT in December

 

Surveyor SGS estimated Malaysia’s Feb 1-10th palm oil exports at 307,122 tons down 4.2% from a month ago

 

Surveyor Intertek Agri Services estimated Malaysia’s Feb 1-10th palm oil exports at 298,910 tons down 16% from a month ago

 

Chinese industry analysts – weekly Chinese crush breakdown:

  • For the week Jan 31 –Feb 6,  total crush volume at 1,497,100 tons down 2.28% from a week ago
  • For the week Jan 31- Feb 6, total crush capacity utilization at 49.52% down 1.16% from a week ago
  • Total ‘14/15 (Oct 1, 2014- Feb 6, 2015) crush volume at 27,465,150 tons up 8.44% from a year ago
  • Total 2015 (Jan 1- Feb 6) crush volume at 8,256,050 tons up 22.04% from a year ago
  • As of Feb 6th total imported soybean stocks at 4.3076 MMT vs. 4.3906 MMT a week ago and down 18.11% from a year ago
  • Estimated Feb bean imports at 3.807 MMT vs. previous estimate of 4.5 MMT
  • Estimated March bean imports at 4.2 MMT vs. previous estimate of 4.4 MMT
  • Estimated April bean imports at 5.6 MMT unchanged from previous estimate
  • Estimated May bean imports at 5.8 MMT , first estimate made.

 

The US is the only exporter offering March soybeans into China, Argentina’s first offers are for April and Brazil’s first offers are for May. – Reuters

 

Taiwan MFIG bought 60,000 tons of US corn for April –May shipment.

 

South Korea CJ bought 97,000 tons of wheat for June-July shipment. 47,000 tons from the US and 50,000 tons from Australia.

 

Bahrain bought 25,000 tons of Australian wheat for March-April shipment

 

South Korea bought 35,000 tons of Vietnam and US origin rice for April –June shipment.

 

Morocco seeks 360,000 tons of US soft wheat and 306,000 tons of US durum wheat for May shipment.

 

Bangladesh seeks 100,000 tons of optional origin wheat for March-April shipment.

 

Japan seeks 129,395 tons of food wheat for April shipment. Breakdown:

  • 14,080 tons of US western white wheat
  • 8,380 tons of US HRW wheat
  • 18,495 tons of US dark northern spring wheat
  • 61,400 tons of Canadian western red spring wheat
  • 27,040 tons of Australian white wheat

 

ABARES came out yesterday afternoon with Australian ‘14/15 crop estimates

  • Estimated Australia’s ‘14/15 wheat crop at 23.61 MMT vs. previous estimate of 23.22 MMT
  • Estimated Australia’s ‘14/15 canola crop at 3.413 MMT vs. previous estimate of 3.32 MMT
  • Estimated Australia’s ‘14/15 cotton crop at 470,000 tons unchanged from previous estimate

 

French Farm Ministry estimated 2015 winter soft wheat area at 5.13 MH vs. previous estimate of 5.10 MH and up 3.1% from a year ago

 

French Farm Ministry estimated 2015 winter rapeseed area at 1.5 MH unchanged from previous estimate and down .6% from a year ago

 

USDA attaché in India estimated ‘13/14  bean crop at 9.5 MMT vs. previous estimate of 10.5 MMT

 

USDA attaché in India estimated ‘13/14 bean ending stocks at 1.0 MMT , lowest in 10 years.

 

USDA attaché in India estimated ‘14/15 oil meal exports at 4.1 MMT vs. previous estimate of 4.8 MMT

 

South American weather favorable.

 

Today is the 3rd day of the Goldman Sachs roll. Roll ends on Thursday. They have been rolling long March positions into May.

 

Receipt Registrations as of yesterday afternoon – No changes from Friday.

  • Wheat  = 134
  • Oats = 98
  • Corn = 1,017
  • Ethanol = 155
  • DDGs = 0
  • Beans = 1
  • Bean oil = 3,335
  • Soymeal = 2
  • Rice = 1,226
  • KC wheat = 168

 

Moving averages

  • March bean 20 day 979 ¾
  • March corn 20 day 382 ½
  • March corn 50 day 393 ½
  • March wheat 20 day 523 ½
  • March KC wheat 20 day 560 ½
  • March Minneapolis wheat 20 day 573 ¼
  • March bean oil 20 day 3159
  • March bean oil 50 day 3209
  • March bean oil 100 day 3264

 

Open interest as of yesterday’s close

  • Total corn 1,350,961 open, up 3,832
  • Total beans 723,485 open, up 4,107
  • Total meal 359,978 open, down 4,010
  • Total bean oil 391,447 open, down 5,573
  • Total wheat 425,669 open, down 1,741
  • Total KC wheat 163,474 open, down 205

 

Upcoming reports/events

  • Weekly API energy inventory report comes out today at 330 pm CST
  • USDA to release updated baseline acreage projections tomorrow.
  • Weekly DOE energy inventory report comes out tomorrow at 930 am CST. Expecting
    • Crude a build of 3.5 MB
    • Gas a draw of 500,000 barrels
    • Distillates a draw of 1.5 MB
  • Weekly US ethanol plant production report comes out tomorrow at 730 am CST
  • CONAB comes out Thursday with their Brazilian crop estimate updates. Previous estimates were
    • ‘14/15 Brazilian bean crop estimated at 95.9 MMT
    • ‘14/15 Brazilian bean exports estimated at 49.6 MMT
    • ‘14/15 Brazilian corn crop estimated at 79.1 MMT
  • CEC comes out on Friday with their South African crop estimates .
    • Based on a Bloomberg survey South Africa’s corn crop estimated at 14.3 MMT vs. 11.7 MMT a year ago
  • US markets will be closed Monday February 16th for Presidents Day holiday. See attachment for CME holiday trading schedule.
  • Brazil and Argentina markets will be closed Monday and Tuesday February 16-17th for Carnival
  • May corn, wheat, beans, meal , and bean oil goes top step (spot month) on Wednesday February 18th.
  • China markets will be closed February 19-25th for Lunar New Year holiday, markets resume trading February 26th
  • Annual USDA Outlook Forum is Thursday – Friday February 19th and 20th
  • USDA to restart monthly US ethanol reports. The report was discontinued by the Census Bureau in 2011. First report is scheduled to come out Feb 20th during the Agricultural Outlook Forum
  • Last trading day for March options is Friday February 20th. Options expire at 115 pm CST
  • Position day for March futures is Thursday February 26th . Traders should be out of long positions by the close or risk delivery.
  • First notice day for March futures is Friday February 27th.
  • USDA to restart month Census crush reports in July 2015

 

Estimates for today’s USDA report.

 

Estimates for ‘14/15 US ending stocks

  • Wheat (21 analysts surveyed) – average estimate is .689 BB, range of estimates are .595 – .730 BB. USDA January estimate was .687 BB.
  • Corn (21 analysts surveyed) – average estimate is 1.879 BB, range of estimates are 1.817– 2.002 BB. USDA January estimate was 1.877 BB
  • Beans (21 analysts surveyed) – average estimate is .398 BB, range of estimates are .356 – .440 BB. USDA January estimate was .410 BB

 

Estimates for ‘14/15 world ending stocks

  • Wheat (18 analysts surveyed) – average estimate is 195.83 MMT, range of estimates are 191.40 -197.00 MMT. USDA January estimate was 196.00 MMT
  • Corn (17 analysts surveyed) –  average estimate is 189.28 MMT, range of estimates are 187.60 – 190.93 MMT. USDA January estimate was 189.15 MMT
  • Beans (18 analysts surveyed) –  average estimate is 90.44 MMT, range of estimates are 88.75 – 91.53 MMT. USDA January estimate was 90.78 MMT

 

Estimates for ‘14/15 South American crop estimates

  • Argentine corn production (21 analysts surveyed) –  average estimate 22.54 MMT , range of estimates are 21.20-28.50 MMT and USDA January estimate was 22.0 MMT
  • Argentine bean production (21 analysts surveyed) – average estimate 55.58 MMT, range of estimates are 54.40 -59.50 MMT and USDA January estimate was 55.0 MMT
  • Brazilian corn production (21 analysts surveyed) – average estimate 74.56 MMT, range of estimates are 72.80-76.00 MMT and USDA January estimate was 75.0 MMT
  • Brazilian beans production (21 analysts surveyed) – average estimate 94.67 MMT, range of estimates are 93.00 – 96.50 MMT and USDA January estimate was 95.50 MMT

 

Data sources: DowJones , Bloomberg, Reuters , DTN news, barchart.com and CME Group, NYSE