News From The Grain Floor 2/09/15

Good morning.

 

An intellectual snob is someone who can listen to the William Tell Overture and not think of The Lone Ranger.

–          Dan Rather

 

USDA announced 120,000 tons of US beans sold to China for ‘14/15 shipment

 

Overnight closes

  • SH down 1 ¼ at 972 ¼
  • CH down 1 ½ at 384 ¼
  • WH down 3 ¼ at 523 ¾
  • KC WH down 1 ½ at 560 ¼
  • MWH down 1 ¾ at 575 ¼
  • SMH  down .10 at 329.30
  • BOH down 15 at 3167
  • RRH down 19 at 1055

 

Overnight volume

  • SH 19,066
  • CH 21,787
  • WH 6,187
  • KC WH 1,207
  • MWH 66
  • SMH 3,936
  • BOH  13,961
  • RRH 88

 

Opening calls

  • Beans 1-3 lower
  • Corn 1-3 lower
  • Wheat 2-4 lower
  • KC wheat 1-3 lower
  • Minneapolis wheat 1-3 lower
  • Meal steady easier
  • Bean oil 10-20 lower
  • Rice 15-20 lower

 

Gold, silver, crude, and dollar higher. Stock market lower

 

Nikkei up .36%

Hang Seng down .6%

Shanghai Index up .6%

 

China’s January trade balance report came out on Saturday night

  • January exports -3.3% on year expecting +6.3%
  • January imports -19.9% on year expecting -3.0%
  • January trade balance $+60.0 billion expecting $+48.9 billion

 

China grain closings beans down 18, corn up 11, meal down 1, palm oil up 12, and bean oil down 10

 

Malaysian palm oil down 29

 

China’s General Administration of Customs said China imported 6.88 MMT of beans in January down 19.3% from December and up 16.2% from January 2014.

 

China’s General Administration of Customs said China imported 450,000 tons of veg oils in January down 23.7% from December

 

Hearing Brazilian bean harvest is about 10% complete

 

IMEA said Mato Grosso bean harvest is 17% complete vs. 10.4% a week ago and vs. 21.7% a year ago

 

Mato Grosso bean yields estimated at 46.8 BPA vs. 46.23 BPA a year ago

 

France exported 1.4 MMT of soft wheat in December customs data showed

 

Mauritius seeks 6,000 tons of optional origin white rice for March –July shipment

 

COPA said for the week ending February 4th Canadian crushers crushed 144,916 tons of canola down 3.2% from a week ago

 

COPA said for the week ending February 4th Canadian crushers crushed 44,377 tons of beans up 24.4% from a week ago

 

Buenos Aires Grains Exchange –Weekly Argentina crop report from last week

  • Estimated ‘14/15 bean crop at 57.0 MMT (record). First estimate made for ‘14/15 bean crop.
  • Estimated ‘14/15 bean area at 20.4 MH unchanged from previous estimate
  • Corn planting is 99.2% complete vs. 95% complete a week ago and vs. 98.2% complete a year ago
  • Estimated ‘14/15 corn area at 3.0 MH unchanged from previous estimate
  • Sunflower harvest is 15.3% complete vs. 13% a week ago and vs. 22.8% a year ago
  • ‘14/15 sunflower crop is estimated at 2.4 MMT

 

Weekly COT supplemental report from Friday. Large spec positions as of 2/03/15 , futures and options combined

  • Wheat – short 54,515
  • KC Wheat – short 18,527
  • Corn – long 68,064
  • Beans – short 57,329
  • Meal – long 23,783
  • Bean oil – short 16,955

 

Today is the second day of the Goldman Sachs roll. They are rolling long March positions into May. Roll ends on Thursday. Friday on the close

  • 8,589 March /May bean spreads traded at – 6 ½ to -6 ¼
  • 5,400 March / May bean oil spreads traded at -22 to -21
  • 5,339 March /May soymeal spreads traded at 6.10-6.50
  • 20,825 March/ May corn spreads traded at – 8 ¼ to -8
  • 8,631 March /May wheat spreads traded at – 2 ¼ to – 1 ¾
  • 3,071 March /May KC wheat spreads traded at -3 ½ to -2 ¾

 

Receipt Registrations as of Friday afternoon

  • Wheat  = 134
  • Oats = 98
  • Corn = 1,017
  • Ethanol = 155
  •  DDGs = 0
  • Beans = 1
  • Bean oil = 3,335
  • Soymeal = 2
  • Rice = 1,226
  • KC wheat = 168
    • 50 KC wheat receipts were canceled Friday afternoon out of ADM Hutchinson Elev. I, KS

 

Moving averages

  • March bean 20 day 981 ½
  • March corn 20 day 383
  • March corn 50 day 393 ¼
  • March corn 100 day 379 ½
  • March wheat 20 day 524 ½
  • March KC wheat 20 day 563 ½
  • March Minneapolis wheat 20 day 574 ¼
  • March bean oil 20 day 3162
  • March bean oil 50 day 3213
  • March meal 20 day 332.70
  • March meal 100 day 336.20

 

Open interest as of Friday’s close

  • Total corn 1,357,451 open, down 4,917
  • Total beans 719,656 open, up 10,007
  • Total meal 363,908 open, up 1,915
  • Total bean oil 397,131 open, down 8,914
  • Total wheat 427,478 open, down 1,456
  • Total KC wheat 163,682 open, down 1,203

 

Estimated fund activity from Friday’s trade

  • Wheat bought 1,000
  • Corn bought 2,000
  • Beans sold 4,000
  • Meal sold 2,000
  • Bean oil bought 2,000

 

Open outcry pit players from Friday

 

Corn:

RJO bot 4000 K 380 puts

Rand bot 1000 H 380 puts

ADM sold 1000 K 370 puts

JPM sold 600 H 410 calls-360 put strangles/sold 30 CH

Macquarie sold 500 H 390 calls/bot 210 CH

ABN bot 400 H 370 puts

JPM bot 500 N 400 -450 call spreads/sold 500 N 360 puts

FI sold 500 H 375 puts

 

Beans:

Macquarie bot 1250 X 800 puts

FCS sold 600 H 940 puts

ABN bot 600 N 920-840 put spreads

Bache bot 500 K 930-880 put spreads

Rand bot 500 K 900-840 put spreads/sold 500 J 900 calls

Rosenthal bot 500 K 930-900 put spreads

Drax bot 400 J 970 puts/sold 800 J 930 puts

 

Wheat:

Bache bot 500 K 560-600 call spreads/sold 65 WK

ICAP sold 400 K 490 puts/sold 108 WK

 

Meal:

RJO bot 200 K 340 calls

 

Oil:

Tenco bot 1000 K 31 puts

Tenco bot 400 K 30 puts

Tenco sold 1000 K 31 calls/bot 1000 K 30 puts

Tenco bot 500 K 30-29 put spreads

Tenco bot 800 H 34 calls

Man sold 500 H 32-31 ½ put spreads

Drax bot 250 H 33-34 call spreads

Drax bot 200 K 35-37 call spreads

Mizuho bot 1000 K 35 calls

RJO sold 500 K 32-34 call spreads

 

Crush:

Dowd Wescott bought 500 March crush at 99

Dowd Wescott sold 500 May crush at 80

Jefferies sold 220 May crush at 81-82

Rand bought 100 March crush at 99

 

Upcoming reports/events

  • Weekly US export inspections report comes out today at 10 am CST
  • Malaysian Palm Oil Board comes out tomorrow with their January palm oil data report. Based on a Reuters survey expecting
    • January palm oil exports average estimate is 1.29 MMT vs. December exports of 1.52 MMT
    • January palm oil stocks average estimate is 1.29 MMT vs. 2.01 MMT in December
    • January palm oil output average estimate is 1.19 MMT vs. 1.36 MMT in December
  • Surveyors SGS and Intertek estimate Malaysia’s Feb 1-10th palm oil exports tomorrow
  • USDA supply and demand and crop production report comes out tomorrow at 11 am CST .
  • Weekly API energy inventory report comes out tomorrow at 330 pm CST
  • CONAB comes out Thursday with their Brazilian crop estimate updates. Previous estimates were
    • ‘14/15 Brazilian bean crop estimated at 95.9 MMT
    • ‘14/15 Brazilian bean exports estimated at 49.6 MMT
    • ‘14/15 Brazilian corn crop estimated at 79.1 MMT
  • US markets will be closed Monday February 16th for Presidents Day holiday. See attachment for CME holiday trading schedule.
  • Brazil and Argentina markets will be closed Monday and Tuesday February 16-17th for Carnival
  • China markets will be closed February 19-25th for Lunar New Year holiday, markets resume trading February 26th
  • Annual USDA Outlook Forum is Thursday – Friday February 19th and 20th
  • USDA to restart monthly US ethanol reports. The report was discontinued by the Census Bureau in 2011. First report is scheduled to come out Feb 20th during the Agricultural Outlook Forum
  • Last trading day for March options is Friday February 20th. Options expire at 115 pm CST
  • Position day for March futures is Thursday February 26th . Traders should be out of long positions by the close or risk delivery.
  • First notice day for March futures is Friday February 27th.
  • USDA to restart month Census crush reports in July 2015

 

Estimates for Tuesday’s USDA report.

 

Estimates for ‘14/15 US ending stocks

  • Wheat (21 analysts surveyed) – average estimate is .689 BB, range of estimates are .595 – .730 BB. USDA January estimate was .687 BB.
  • Corn (21 analysts surveyed) – average estimate is 1.879 BB, range of estimates are 1.817– 2.002 BB. USDA January estimate was 1.877 BB
  • Beans (21 analysts surveyed) – average estimate is .398 BB, range of estimates are .356 – .440 BB. USDA January estimate was .410 BB

 

Estimates for ‘14/15 world ending stocks

  • Wheat (18 analysts surveyed) – average estimate is 195.83 MMT, range of estimates are 191.40 -197.00 MMT. USDA January estimate was 196.00 MMT
  • Corn (17 analysts surveyed) –  average estimate is 189.28 MMT, range of estimates are 187.60 – 190.93 MMT. USDA January estimate was 189.15 MMT
  • Beans (18 analysts surveyed) –  average estimate is 90.44 MMT, range of estimates are 88.75 – 91.53 MMT. USDA January estimate was 90.78 MMT

 

Estimates for ‘14/15 South American crop estimates

  • Argentine corn production (21 analysts surveyed) –  average estimate 22.54 MMT , range of estimates are 21.20-28.50 MMT and USDA January estimate was 22.0 MMT
  • Argentine bean production (21 analysts surveyed) – average estimate 55.58 MMT, range of estimates are 54.40 -59.50 MMT and USDA January estimate was 55.0 MMT
  • Brazilian corn production (21 analysts surveyed) – average estimate 74.56 MMT, range of estimates are 72.80-76.00 MMT and USDA January estimate was 75.0 MMT
  • Brazilian beans production (21 analysts surveyed) – average estimate 94.67 MMT, range of estimates are 93.00 – 96.50 MMT and USDA January estimate was 95.50 MMT

 

Data sources: DowJones , Bloomberg, Reuters , DTN news, barchart.com and CME Group, NYSE