News From The Grain Floor 2/06/15

Good morning.

 

There is nothing permanent except change.

–          Heraclitus

 

No USDA announcements this morning

 

Goldman Sachs roll begins today and ends Thursday. They will be rolling long March positions into May.

 

Overnight closes

  • SH up a ¼ at 981 ½
  • CH up 1 ½ at 386 ¾
  • WH up 3 ¾ at 529 ½
  • KC WH up 4 ¼ at 568 ¼
  • MWH up 5 at 584
  • SMH  up .40 at 331.80
  • BOH up 7 at 3178
  • RRH up 10 at 1055

 

Overnight volume

  • SH 15,190
  • CH  23,131
  • WH 13,914
  • KC WH  1,035
  • MWH  280
  • SMH 4,370
  • BOH  15,407
  • RRH 349

 

Opening calls

  • Beans steady better
  • Corn 1-3 higher
  • Wheat 3-5 higher
  • KC wheat 3-5 higher
  • Minneapolis wheat 4-6 higher
  • Meal steady better
  • Bean oil steady better
  • Rice 8-12 higher

 

Gold and silver lower. Crude, dollar and stock market higher

 

Nikkei up .82%

Hang Seng down .4%

Shanghai Index down 1.9%

 

January US unemployment came out this morning at 730 am CST

  • January nonfarm payrolls +257K expecting +237K
  • January unemployment rate 5.7% expecting 5.5%
  • December nonfarm payrolls revised to +329K  from +252K

 

China grain closings beans up 17, corn down 13, meal up 13, palm oil up 110, and bean oil up 72.

 

Malaysian palm oil up 34.

 

Lack of fresh grain news this morning.

 

Indonesian energy ministry official said Indonesia Parliament approves government plan to increase biodiesel subsidy to 4,000 rupiah per liter vs. previous 1,500 rupiah per liter

 

CNGOIC estimated China’s ‘14/15 sorghum imports at a record 6.2 MMT

 

CNGOIC said China bought more than 900,000 tons of US sorghum in January

 

Solvent Extractors Association of India said India exported 159,892 tons of oilmeal in January down 63% from a year ago

 

India exported 104,426 tons of soymeal in January down 71% from a year ago

 

IKAR estimated Russia’s 2015 grain crop at 85-95 MMT

 

IKAR estimated ‘14/15 Russian grain exports at 28.7 MMT

 

IKAR estimated ‘15/16 Russian grain exports at 20-30 MMT

 

Marex bought another 4,500 May bean 800 puts yesterday. Two day total was 11,500 SK 800 puts bought. Open interest as of yesterday’s close was 7,464 down 3,530

 

Receipt Registrations as of yesterday afternoon

  • Wheat  = 134
  • Oats = 98
  • Corn = 1,017
  • Ethanol = 155
    • 8 new ethanol receipts were registered yesterday afternoon out of Noble Americas Corp. Argo IL
  •  DDGs = 0
  • Beans = 1
  • Bean oil = 3,335
  • Soymeal = 2
  • Rice = 1,226
  • KC wheat = 218

 

Moving averages

  • March bean 20 day 986
  • March corn 20 day 383 ¾
  • March corn 50 day 393 ½
  • March corn 100 day 379 ½
  • March wheat 20 day 526 ¾
  • March wheat 100 day 547 ¾
  • March Minneapolis wheat 20 day 576
  • March bean oil 20 day 3172
  • March bean oil 50 day 3217
  • March bean oil 100 day 3268
  • March meal 20 day 333.80
  • March meal 50 day 345.40
  • March meal 100 day 336.20

 

Open interest as of yesterday’s close

  • Total corn 1,352,438 open, up 2,746
  • Total beans 712,253 open, up 8,586
  • Total meal 362,167 open, down 1,096
  • Total bean oil 406,738 open, down 1,493
  • Total wheat 429,640 open, up 2,040
  • Total KC wheat 164,915 open, down 2,459

 

Upcoming reports/events

  • Weekly COT report comes out today at 230 pm CST
  • Weekly US export inspections report comes out on Monday at 10 am CST
  • Malaysian Palm Oil Board comes out on Tuesday Feb 10thwith their January palm oil data report. Based on a Reuters survey expecting
    • January palm oil exports average estimate is 1.29 MMT vs. December exports of 1.52 MMT
    • January palm oil stocks average estimate is 1.29 MMT vs. 2.01 MMT in December
    • January palm oil output average estimate is 1.19 MMT vs. 1.36 MMT in December
  • Surveyors SGS and Intertek estimate Malaysia’s Feb 1-10th palm oil exports on Tuesday Feb 10th
  • USDA supply and demand and crop production report comes out Tuesday Feb 10 at 11 am CST .
  • CONAB comes out Thursday Feb 12thwith their Brazilian crop estimate updates. Previous estimates were
    • ‘14/15 Brazilian bean crop estimated at 95.9 MMT
    • ‘14/15 Brazilian bean exports estimated at 49.6 MMT
    • ‘14/15 Brazilian corn crop estimated at 79.1 MMT
  • US markets will be closed Monday February 16th for Presidents Day holiday. See attachment for CME holiday trading schedule.
  • Brazil and Argentina markets will be closed Monday and Tuesday February 16-17th for Carnival
  • China markets will be closed February 19-25th for Lunar New Year holiday, markets resume trading February 26th
  • Annual USDA Outlook Forum is Thursday – Friday February 19th and 20th
  • USDA to restart monthly US ethanol reports. The report was discontinued by the Census Bureau in 2011. First report is scheduled to come out Feb 20th during the Agricultural Outlook Forum
  • Last trading day for March options is Friday February 20th. Options expire at 115 pm CST
  • Position day for March futures is Thursday February 26th . Traders should be out of long positions by the close or risk delivery.
  • First notice day for March futures is Friday February 27th.
  • USDA to restart month Census crush reports in July 2015

 

Estimates for Tuesday’s USDA report.

 

Estimates for ‘14/15 US ending stocks

  • Wheat (21 analysts surveyed) – average estimate is .689 BB, range of estimates are .595 – .730 BB. USDA January estimate was .687 BB.
  • Corn (21 analysts surveyed) – average estimate is 1.879 BB, range of estimates are 1.817– 2.002 BB. USDA January estimate was 1.877 BB
  • Beans (21 analysts surveyed) – average estimate is .398 BB, range of estimates are .356 – .440 BB. USDA January estimate was .410 BB

 

Estimates for ‘14/15 world ending stocks

  • Wheat (18 analysts surveyed) – average estimate is 195.83 MMT, range of estimates are 191.40 -197.00 MMT. USDA January estimate was 196.00 MMT
  • Corn (17 analysts surveyed) –  average estimate is 189.28 MMT, range of estimates are 187.60 – 190.93 MMT. USDA January estimate was 189.15 MMT
  • Beans (18 analysts surveyed) –  average estimate is 90.44 MMT, range of estimates are 88.75 – 91.53 MMT. USDA January estimate was 90.78 MMT

 

Estimates for ‘14/15 South American crop estimates

  • Argentine corn production (21 analysts surveyed) –  average estimate 22.54 MMT , range of estimates are 21.20-28.50 MMT and USDA January estimate was 22.0 MMT
  • Argentine bean production (21 analysts surveyed) – average estimate 55.58 MMT, range of estimates are 54.40 -59.50 MMT and USDA January estimate was 55.0 MMT
  • Brazilian corn production (21 analysts surveyed) – average estimate 74.56 MMT, range of estimates are 72.80-76.00 MMT and USDA January estimate was 75.0 MMT
  • Brazilian beans production (21 analysts surveyed) – average estimate 94.67 MMT, range of estimates are 93.00 – 96.50 MMT and USDA January estimate was 95.50 MMT

 

Data sources: DowJones , Bloomberg, Reuters , DTN news, barchart.com and CME Group, NYSE