News From The Grain Floor 2/05/15

Good morning.

 

“I can accept failure, but I can’t accept not trying.”

–          Michael Jordan

 

No USDA announcements this morning.

 

Overnight closes

  • SH up 5 ¼ at 977 ¼
  • CH up 1 ¾ at 385 ¼
  • WH up 5 at 516
  • KC WH up 5 ½ at 558 ¼
  • MWH up 7 at 573
  • SMH  down .40 at 332.30
  • BOH up 77 at 3136
  • RRH up 9.50 at 1034.50

 

Overnight volume

  • SH 20,998
  • CH 24,604
  • WH 6,709
  • KC WH 1,413
  • MWH 376
  • SMH 5,721
  • BOH  21,310
  • RRH 36

 

Opening calls

  • Beans 4-6 higher
  • Corn 1-3 higher
  • Wheat 4-6 higher
  • KC wheat 5-7 higher
  • Minneapolis wheat 6-8 higher
  • Meal steady mixed
  • Bean oil 70-90 higher
  • Rice 8-11 higher

 

Dollar , gold, and silver lower. Crude and stock market higher

 

Nikkei down .98%

Hang Seng up .4%

Shanghai Index down 1.2%

 

Weekly US jobless claims report came out this morning at +11K to 278K expecting 290K

 

US December trade balance report came out this morning

  • US Dec trade deficit $46.56 billion expecting a deficit of $38.5 billion vs. November deficit of $39.75 billion
  • US Dec exports -.8% vs. -1.1% in November
  • US Dec imports +2.2% vs. -1.8% in November

 

China grain closings beans down 25, corn up 17, meal down 7, palm oil up 16, bean oil down 26

 

Malaysian palm oil up 111

 

Indonesia plans to boost biodiesel subsidies

 

Hearing China bought 2 cargoes of Canadian canola this week.

 

Japan bought 112,920 tons of US and Canadian wheat for March-April shipment

 

Taiwan bought 86,280 tons of US wheat for March-April shipment

 

Iraq seeks 50,000 optional origin wheat

 

Favorable South American weather forecast

 

Weekly US export sales report

  • Wheat = ‘14/15 397,600 ‘15/16 89,300 tons (expecting 300 -500,000 tons)
  • Corn = ‘14/15 844,900 ‘15/16 7,100 tons (expecting 800,000 -1.0 million tons)
  • Beans = ‘14/15 489,700 ‘15/16 7,100 tons (expecting 200 -500,000 tons)
  • Meal = ‘14/15 296,300 ‘15/16 6,000 tons (expecting 120 -300,000 tons)
  • Bean oil = ‘14/15 15,100 tons (expecting 5- 50,000 tons)

 

Export highlights

  • Wheat – Net sales of 397,600 metric tons for delivery in the 2014/2015 marketing year were down 27 percent from the previous week, but up 11 percent from the prior 4-week average. Increases were reported for Mexico (107,200 MT), Thailand (55,000 MT), Japan (51,700 MT), the Philippines (31,000 MT, including 15,800 MT switched from unknown destinations), unknown destinations (27,200 MT), and Italy (25,200 MT). Decreases were reported for Nigeria (9,100 MT) and Venezuela (2,800 MT). Net sales of 89,300 MT for 2015/2016 were for Chile (35,000 MT), Mexico (31,300 MT), South Korea (15,000 MT), and Peru (8,000 MT). Exports of 439,600 MT were up 29 percent from the previous week and 35 percent from the prior 4-week average. The primary destinations were Japan (150,500 MT), Nigeria (75,200 MT), Colombia (37,300 MT), the Philippines (27,800 MT), and Indonesia (20,100 MT).
  • Corn – Net sales of 844,900 MT for 2014/2015 were down 12 percent from the previous week and 22 percent from the prior 4-week average. Increases were reported for Mexico (297,000 MT), Colombia (158,400 MT, including 109,000 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 47,900 MT), South Korea (116,100 MT), Japan (88,200 MT, including 30,000 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 4,000 MT), Egypt (66,000 MT, including 60,000 MT switched from unknown destinations), the Dominican Republic (35,500 MT), and Honduras (28,900 MT, including 26,100 MT switched from unknown destinations). Decreases were reported for unknown destinations (46,800 MT), Guatemala (10,900 MT), and China (2,000 MT). Net sales of 7,100 MT for 2015/2016 were reported for Mexico (7,600 MT) and unknown destinations (900 MT). Decreases were reported for Japan (1,400 MT). Exports of 714,800 MT were down 14 percent from the previous week, but up 14 percent from the prior 4-week average. The primary destinations were Japan (185,900 MT), Colombia (175,100 MT), Mexico (135,400 MT), Costa Rica (39,500 MT), El Salvador (31,000 MT), and Honduras (28,000 MT).
  • Beans – Net sales of 489,700 MT for 2014/2015 were down 35 percent from the previous week and 27 percent from the prior 4-week average. Increases reported for China (225,000 MT, including 107,000 MT switched from unknown destinations), Turkey (81,800 MT, including 80,000 MT switched from unknown destinations), Japan (81,400 MT), the Netherlands (76,400 MT, including 70,000 MT switched from unknown destinations), Germany (62,900 MT), Mexico (51,300 MT), and Egypt (22,000 MT), were partially offset by decreases for unknown destinations (127,700 MT) and Indonesia (24,000 MT). Net sales of 7,100 MT for 2015/2016 were for Japan. Exports of 2,166,400 MT were up 45 percent from the previous week and 35 percent from the prior 4-week average. The primary destinations were China (1,570,300 MT), Turkey (81,800 MT), Thailand (80,800 MT), the Netherlands (76,400 MT), Vietnam (71,200 MT), Spain (65,000 MT), Germany (62,900 MT), and Indonesia (55,800 MT).
  • Meal – Net sales of 296,300 MT for 2014/2015 were unchanged from the previous week, but up 72 percent from the prior 4-week average. Increases were reported for the Philippines (102,400 MT), Italy (50,000 MT, switched from unknown destinations), Thailand (45,000 MT, switched from unknown destinations), Poland (30,000 MT), Morocco (24,500 MT), and Colombia (15,600 MT, including 6,000 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 900 MT). Decreases were reported for Mexico (19,400 MT), Ecuador (4,500 MT), and Nicaragua (1,300 MT). Net sales of 6,000 MT for 2015/2016 were reported for unknown destinations. Exports of 144,200 MT were down 48 percent from the previous week and 53 percent from the prior 4-week average. The primary destinations were Colombia (32,500 MT), Mexico (27,100 MT), Ecuador (20,500 MT), Canada (11,800 MT), Japan (9,600 MT), the Dominican Republic (9,500 MT), and Nicaragua (8,500 MT).
  • Bean oil – Net sales of 15,100 MT for 2014/2015 were up 43 percent from the previous week, but down 31 percent from the prior 4-week average. Increases were reported for Guatemala (5,600 MT), Peru (4,500 MT), Mexico (3,800 MT), and unknown destinations (500 MT). Exports of 25,900 MT were up noticeably from the previous week and 18 percent from the prior 4-week average. The primary destinations were Peru (19,900 MT), Mexico (2,800 MT), Nicaragua (1,500 MT), and El Salvador (1,000 MT).

 

Receipt Registrations as of yesterday afternoon

  • Wheat  = 134
  • Oats = 98
  • Corn = 1,017
  • Ethanol = 147
    • 147 new ethanol receipts were registered yesterday afternoon
  •  DDGs = 0
  • Beans = 1
  • Bean oil = 3,335
  • Soymeal = 2
  • Rice = 1,226
  • KC wheat = 218

 

Moving averages

  • March corn 20 day 384 ¼
  • March corn 50 day 393 ¼
  • March corn 100 day 379 ¼
  • March Minneapolis wheat 20 day 577
  • March bean oil 20 day 3180
  • March meal 20 day 334.60
  • March meal 100 day 336.10

 

Open interest as of yesterday’s close

  • Total corn 1,350,675 open, up 305
  • Total beans 704,614 open, down 3,660
  • Total meal 363,430 open, down 7,575
  • Total bean oil 408,307 open, up 1,142
  • Total wheat 428,217 open, up 642
  • Total KC wheat 168,385 open, up 1,947

 

Upcoming reports/events

  • Weekly EIA Nat Gas storage report comes out today at 930 am CST expecting -119 BCF
  • January US unemployment report comes out tomorrow at 730 am CST
  • Goldman Sachs roll begins tomorrow and ends Thursday February 12th, they will be rolling long March positions into May.
  • Weekly COT report comes out tomorrow at 230 pm CST
  • Malaysian Palm Oil Board comes out on Tuesday Feb 10th with their January palm oil data report
  • Surveyors SGS and Intertek estimate Malaysia’s Feb 1-10th palm oil exports on Feb 10th
  • USDA supply and demand and crop production report comes out Tuesday Feb 10 at 11 am CST . I will email out estimates for the report today.
  • CONAB comes out Thursday Feb 12thwith their Brazilian crop estimate updates. Previous estimates were
    • ‘14/15 Brazilian bean crop estimated at 95.9 MMT
    • ‘14/15 Brazilian bean exports estimated at 49.6 MMT
    • ‘14/15 Brazilian corn crop estimated at 79.1 MMT
  • US markets will be closed Monday February 16th for Presidents Day holiday.
  • Brazil and Argentina markets will be closed Monday and Tuesday February 16-17th for Carnival
  • China markets will be closed February 19-25th for Lunar New Year holiday, markets resume trading February 26th
  • Annual USDA Outlook Forum is Thursday – Friday February 19th and 20th
  • Last trading day for March options is Friday February 20th. Options expire at 115 pm CST
  • Position day for March futures is Thursday February 26th . Traders should be out of long positions by the close or risk delivery.
  • First notice day for March futures is Friday February 27th.
  • USDA to restart monthly US ethanol reports in February 2015
  • USDA to restart month Census crush reports in July 2015

 

Data sources: DowJones , Bloomberg, Reuters , DTN news, barchart.com and CME Group, NYSE