News From The Grain Floor- 2/03/15

Good morning.

 

“How do you throw the ball when you got Marshawn Lynch?”

–          Tharold Simon

 

Egypt GASC is in for wheat for March shipment.

 

No USDA announcements this morning.

 

Overnight closes

  • SH up 11 at 970 ½
  • CH up 4 ¾ at 374 ½
  • WH up 6 ¾ at 499 ½
  • KC WH up 6 ¾ at 541 ¼
  • MWH up 6 at 560
  • SMH up 4.40 at 332.30
  • BOH up 23 at 3064
  • RRH down 10 at 1020.50

 

Overnight volume

  • SH 19,186
  • CH 22,320
  • WH 7,180
  • KC WH 1,122
  • MWH 183
  • SMH 5,507
  • BOH 7,904
  • RRH 116

 

Opening calls

  • Beans 10-15 higher
  • Corn 4-6 higher
  • Wheat 6-8 higher
  • KC wheat 6-8 higher
  • Minneapolis wheat 5-7 higher
  • Meal 4.00-5.00 higher
  • Bean oil 20-30 higher
  • Rice 8-12 lower

 

Dollar and gold lower. Stock market , silver, and crude oil higher

 

Nikkei down 1.27%

Hang Seng up .3%

Shanghai Index up 2.4%

 

China grain closings beans up 39, corn up 8, meal up 11, palm oil up 50, and bean oil up 50.

 

Malaysian palm oil markets are closed today for holiday. Trading resumes tomorrow.

 

Iraq seeks 50,000 tons of optional origin wheat.

 

Jordan seeks 100,000 tons of optional origin hard wheat for August-Sept shipment

 

Jordan seeks 100,000 tons of optional origin feed barley for August- Sept shipment

 

Japan seeks 112,920 tons of US and Canadian wheat for March-April shipment

 

South Korea NOFI seeks 55,000 tons of optional origin feed wheat for June shipment

 

Brazil crop tour (The Expedicao Safra tour) estimated Brazil’s ‘14/15 bean crop at 93.2 MMT vs. previous estimate of 96.1 MMT

 

USDA attaché in Brazil estimated 2015 Brazilian bean crop at 93.0 MMT vs. previous estimate of 95.5 MMT

 

USDA attaché in Brazil estimated 2015 Brazilian bean exports at 47.0 MMT

 

Russian Ag Min estimated ‘14/15 Russia grain exports at 28-30 MMT

 

China is auctioning 1.13 MMT of domestic wheat from reserves today through Thursday.

 

China to auction 11,400 tons of rapeseed oil from reserves this week

 

Chinese industry analysts – weekly Chinese crush breakdown:

  • For the week of Jan 24-30th total crush volume at 1,532,150 tons down 9.98% from a week ago
  • For the week Jan 24-30th total crush capacity utilization at 50.68% down 5.68% from a week ago
  • Total ‘14/15 (Oct 1, 2014- Jan 30, 2015) crush volume at 25,968,050 tons up 5.87% from a year ago
  • Total 2015 (Jan 1-Jan 30) crush volume at 7,028,950 tons up 17.80% from a year ago
  • As of Jan 30th total imported bean stocks at 4.4506 MMT vs. 4.6456 MMT a week ago and down 9.58% from a year ago
  • Estimated January bean imports at 6.894 MMT unchanged from previous estimate
  • Estimated February bean imports at 4.5 MMT unchanged from previous estimate
  • Estimated March bean imports at 4.4 MMT vs. previous estimate of 4.6 MMT
  • Estimated April bean imports at 5.6 MMT unchanged from previous estimate

 

Mostly favorable South American weather forecast

 

Receipt Registrations as of yesterday afternoon

  • Wheat  = 134
  • Oats = 98
  • Corn = 1,017
  • Ethanol = 0
  • DDGs = 0
  • Beans = 1
  • Bean oil = 3,335
  • Soymeal = 2
  • Rice = 1,226
  • KC wheat = 218

 

Moving averages

  • March corn 100 day 378 ½
  • March meal 20 day 336.40
  • March meal 100 day 335.80

 

Open interest as of yesterday’s close

  • Total corn 1,362,997 open, up 9,396
  • Total beans 703,442 open, up 9,062
  • Total meal 366,246 open, up 507
  • Total bean oil 407,343 open, up 1,361
  • Total wheat 429,062 open, up 10,963
  • Total KC wheat 168,263 open, up 3,679

 

Upcoming reports/events

  • Weekly API energy inventory report comes out today at 330 pm CST
  • Stats Canada December 31st, 2014 stocks report comes out tomorrow at 730 am CST. Expecting
    • All wheat stocks average estimate 25.0 MMT vs. 28.68 MMT in 2013
    • Durum average estimate 4.2 MMT vs. 5.239 MMT in 2013
    • Canola average estimate 10.7 MMT vs. 12.421 MMT in 2013
    • Oats average estimate 2.5 MMT vs. 2.848 MMT in 2013
    • Barley average estimate 4.9 MMT vs. 6.75 MMT in 2013
    • January US trade balance report comes out on Thursday at 730 am CST
    • USDA supply and demand and crop production report comes out Tuesday Feb 10 at 11 am CST
    • CONAB comes out Thursday Feb 12thwith their Brazilian crop estimate updates. Previous estimates were
      • ‘14/15 Brazilian bean crop estimated at 95.9 MMT
      • ‘14/15 Brazilian bean exports estimated at 49.6 MMT
      • ‘14/15 Brazilian corn crop estimated at 79.1 MMT
      • Annual USDA Outlook Forum is Thursday – Friday February 19th and 20th
      • Last trading day for March options is Friday February 20th. Options expire at 115 pm CST
      • Position day for March futures is Thursday February 26th . Traders should be out of long positions by the close or risk delivery.
      • First notice day for March futures is Friday February 27th.
  • Surveyor Intertek will estimate Malaysia’s January palm oil exports tomorrow.
  • Malaysia returns from holiday tomorrow.
  • Weekly DOE energy inventory report comes out tomorrow at 930 am CST. Expecting
    • Crude a build of 3.75 MB
    • Gas unchanged
    • Distillates a draw of 1.15 MB
  • Weekly US ethanol plant production report comes out tomorrow at 930 am CST
  • January US unemployment report comes out Friday at 730 am CST
  • Goldman Sachs roll begins on Friday and ends Thursday February 12th, they will be rolling long March positions into May.
  • US markets will be closed Monday February 16th for Presidents Day holiday.
  • Brazil and Argentina markets will be closed Monday and Tuesday February 16-17th for Carnival
  • China markets will be closed February 19-25th for Lunar New Year holiday, markets resume trading February 26th
  • USDA to restart monthly US ethanol reports in February 2015
  • USDA to restart month Census crush reports in July 2015

 

Data sources: DowJones , Bloomberg, Reuters , DTN news, barchart.com and CME Group, NYSE