News From The Grain Floor 1/15/15

Good morning.

 

Whatever you are, be a good one.

–          Abraham Lincoln

 

Sorry for lateness , busy morning …

 

Egypt GASC is in for wheat for February shipment.

 

USDA announced 127,000 tons of corn sold to Japan for ‘14/15 shipment

 

Informa comes out today at 1030 am CST with ‘15/16 US acreage estimates . Previous estimates were

  • Corn area previously estimated at 88.0 million acres
  • Bean area previously estimated at 88.8 million acres
  • Wheat area previously estimated at 56.6 million acres

 

NOPA December crush report comes out today at 11 am CST. Based on a Reuters survey expecting

  • Crush = average estimate 166.99 MB vs. November crush of 161.211 MB and vs. Dec 2013 crush of 165.384 MB
  • Bean oil stocks = average estimate 1.122 billion lbs. vs. November bean oil stocks of 1.005 billion lbs. and December 2013 bean oil stocks were 1.681 billion lbs.
  • Meal exports = no estimate is given . November exports were 834,987 tons and December 2013 exports were 1,005,302 tons

 

Nikkei up 1.86%

Hang Seng up 1.0%

Shanghai index up 3.5%

 

Weekly US jobless claims came out this morning at +19K to 316K expecting +295K

 

China grain closings = beans up 13, corn up 1, meal down 18, palm oil down 32, and bean oil down 12.

 

Malaysian palm oil up 23.

 

Indonesia to keep January palm oil export tax at zero.

 

Japan bought 146,819 tons of food wheat for Feb-March shipment. Breakdown

  • 3,350 tons of US western white wheat
  • 25,240 tons of HRW US wheat
  • 25,577 tons of US dark northern spring wheat
  • 61,392 tons of Canadian western red spring wheat
  • 31,260 tons of Australian white wheat

 

Algeria seeks 50,000 tons of optional origin milling wheat for May shipment

 

Libya seeks 50,000 tons of optional origin milling wheat and 25,000 tons of rice.

 

Weekly US export sales report

  • Wheat = ‘14/15 284,800 ‘15/16 92,400 , expecting 250 -450,000 tons
  • Corn = ‘14/15 818,800 ‘15/16 25,200, expecting 550 -750,000 tons
  • Beans = ‘14/15 1.13 million tons ‘15/16 305,000, expecting 700-900,000 tons
  • Meal = ‘14/15 72,100 tons, expecting 25 -150,000 tons
  • Bean oil = ‘14/15 29,400 tons, expecting 10-30,000 tons

 

Export highlights

  • Wheat = Net sales of 284,800 metric tons for delivery in the 2014/2015 marketing year were up 89 percent from the previous week, but down 11 percent from the prior 4-week average.  Increases were reported for the Philippines (112,800 MT, including 72,000 MT switched from unknown destinations), Japan (96,200 MT), Mexico (72,900 MT), China (55,000 MT, switched from unknown destinations), and Thailand (50,600 MT).  Decreases were reported for unknown destinations (122,400 MT) and the French West Indies (6,000 MT).  Net sales of 92,400 MT for 2015/2016 were for unknown destinations (80,000 MT), Costa Rica (8,400 MT), and Colombia (4,000 MT).  Exports of 225,600 MT were down 51 percent from the previous week and 36 percent from the prior 4-week average.  The primary destinations were Japan (61,300 MT), Thailand (50,400 MT), the Philippines (43,400 MT), Mexico (29,500 MT), Taiwan (21,200 MT), and Venezuela (8,000 MT).
  • Corn = Net sales of 818,800 MT for 2014/2015 were up noticeably from the previous week, but down 10 percent from the prior 4-week average.   Increases were reported for unknown destinations (374,100 MT), Mexico (190,300 MT), South Korea (136,000 MT), Algeria (45,000 MT), and Colombia (40,400 MT).  Decreases were reported for the Dominican Republic (23,300 MT).  Net sales of 25,200 MT for 2015/2016 were for Japan (14,400 MT) and Mexico (10,800 MT). Exports of 400,200 MT were down 22 percent from the previous week and 40 percent from the prior 4-week average.  The primary destinations were Japan (186,700 MT), Mexico (129,900 MT), Colombia (30,700 MT), Peru (27,500 MT), and Taiwan (16,100 MT).
  • Beans = Net sales of 1,133,200 MT for 2014/2015 were up 24 percent from the previous week and 66 percent from the prior 4-week average.  Increases were primarily for China (793,500 MT, including 60,000 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 77,100 MT), Mexico (149,000 MT), the Netherlands (143,100 MT, including 140,000 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 2,800 MT), Vietnam (69,000 MT, including 60,000 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases 100 MT), the United Kingdom (66,900 MT, including 60,000 MT switched from unknown destinations), Pakistan (66,000 MT), and Spain (60,100 MT, including 60,000 MT switched from unknown destinations).  Decreases were reported for unknown destinations (554,500 MT) and Morocco (13,500 MT).  Net sales of 305,000 MT for 2015/2016 were for China (235,000 MT), unknown destinations (65,000 MT), and Japan (5,000 MT).  Exports of 1,748,700 MT were up 4 percent from the previous week and 1 percent from the prior 4-week average.  The primary destinations were China (851,300 MT), the Netherlands (143,100 MT), Vietnam (71,700 MT), Japan (67,000 MT), Indonesia (67,000 MT), and the United Kingdom (66,900 MT)
  • Meal = Net sales of 72,100 MT for 2014/2015 were up 94 percent from the previous week, but down 47 percent from the prior 4-week average.  Increases were reported for Denmark (40,000 MT, switched from unknown destinations), Italy (29,000 MT, including 31,200 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 2,200 MT), Colombia (27,700 MT, including 5,000 MT switched from unknown destinations and 5,000 MT switched from Panama), Mexico (18,800 MT), the Dominican Republic (14,000 MT), and Greece (8,800 MT, switched from unknown destinations).  Decreases were reported for unknown destinations (86,100 MT), Egypt (5,400 MT), and Panama (5,000 MT).   Exports of 440,200 MT–a marketing-year high–were up noticeably from the previous week and 85 percent from the prior 4-week average.  The primary destinations were the Philippines (100,200 MT), Italy (74,000 MT), Pakistan (44,000 MT), Colombia (41,100 MT), Denmark (40,000 MT), and Mexico (30,900 MT).  
  • Bean oil = Net sales of 29,400 MT for 2014/2015 were down 3 percent from the previous week, but up 20 percent from the prior 4-week average.  Increases were reported for Peru (12,400 MT), Mexico (8,000 MT), Nicaragua (5,300 MT), and Morocco (3,000 MT).  Exports of 22,200 MT were up 62 percent from the previous week and 20 percent from the prior 4-week average.  The primary destinations were Guatemala (10,000 MT), Peru (7,000 MT), Mexico (4,700 MT), and Canada (400 MT).

 

Deliveries

  • Bean oil 82 with the date current
  • Rice 10 with the date current
  • Beans 120 with the date current
    • House Term stopped 100
  • Soymeal 200 with the date current
    • House Term stopped 10
    • House ADM stopped 174

 

Receipt Registrations as of yesterday afternoon

  • Wheat  = 164
  • Oats = 98
  • Corn = 1,017
  • Ethanol = 0
  • DDGs = 0
  • Beans = 132
  • Bean oil = 3,336
  • Soymeal = 200
    • 200 new soymeal receipts were registered yesterday afternoon out of Incobrasa Industries, LTD, Gilman IL
  • Rice = 1,236
    • 60 rice receipts were canceled yesterday afternoon
  • KC wheat = 318

 

Estimated fund activity from yesterday

  • Wheat sold 6K
  • Corn sold 9K
  • Beans bought 6K
  • Meals bought 3K
  • Bean oil bought 2K

 

Open outcry option players from yesterday

Corn:

TJM bot 3500 H 430 calls

FCS bot 2000 H 360 puts/bot 480 CH

ABN bot 1000 H 410 calls covered

ABN bot 3000 K 360 puts/sold 1500 K 380 puts

RJO sold 1200 K 390 calls/bot 600 CK

RJO sold 1000 J 340 puts

RJO sold 500 H 370  puts

ICAP sold 1000 G 380 calls

ICAP sold 600 H 380 puts/bot 1200 H 360 puts

ICAP sold 1500 K 420 calls/380 put strangles

ICAP bot 1000 H 380 calls/sold 480 CH

Rosenthal sold 500 U 400 puts

Active trade in corn options of over 40,000

 

Beans:

TJM bot 2000 K 900 puts

TJM bot 1000 K 880 puts

TJM bot 500 K 1000-900 put spreads

RJO bot 600 X 940 puts/sold 1200 X 860 puts

RJO sold 700 H 1000 puts/bot 1400 H 950 puts

RJO bot 300 K 960 puts/sold 600 K 900 puts

Rosenthal bot 1000 H 960-920 put spreads/bot 150 SH

Rosenthal bot 1000 K 900 puts

ADM sold 1000 G 950 puts

ADM sold 500 H 1030 calls

JPM bot 500 K 960 puts/sold 1000 K 1060 calls/bot 400 SK

Macquarie bot 800 H 950 puts/bot 168 SH

Macquarie bot 500 H 950 puts

Macquarie bot 500 H 1000 puts

FI bot 2000 H 960-920 put spreads

FI bot 1000 H 990-950 put spreads

Bache bot 500 H 970 puts/bot 150 SH

 

Wheat:

Bache bot 2000 H 620 calls/sold 120 WH

ADM bot 1200 K 470 puts/sold 1200 H 500 puts

Drax bot 1000 N 500 puts/sold 500 N 600 puts/sold 500 K 550 puts

New Edge bot 1000 KWH 600 puts/sold 1000 KWN 650 calls-540 put strangles

ICAP bot 1000 H 550 calls/sold 380 WH

 

Meal:

Bache sold 1000 H 340 puts

RJO bot 440 K 300 puts/sold 220 K 330 puts

FCS sold 500 H 330 puts

FCS bot 350 N 320-370 call spreads

FCS bot 330 K 320-370 call spreads

FCS bot 330 Z 320-370 call spreads

FCS bot 165 Q 320-370 call spreads

FCS bot 165 U 320-370 call spreads

FCS bot 165 V 320-370 call spreads

ABN bot 400 K 370 calls/sold 400 N 350 calls

 

Upcoming reports/events

  • Weekly EIA Nat Gas storage report comes out today at 930 am CST . Expecting -228 BCF
  • I will be off starting tomorrow and returning on Monday January 26th. If you need assistance you can call the desk at 312-588-5508.
  • Weekly COT report comes out tomorrow at 230 pm
  • See attachment for Martin Luther King Jr. holiday trading schedule. US markets are closed on Monday January 19th for holiday.
  • ECB meets in Frankfurt for the first time in 2015 on January 22nd
  • February options expire Jan 23rd at 115 pm CST
  • Greece elections January 25th
  • FOMC 2 day policy meeting January 27-28
  • USDA to restart monthly US ethanol reports in February 2015
  • USDA to restart month Census crush reports in July 2015

 

Data sources: DowJones , Bloomberg, Reuters , DTN news, barchart.com and CME Group, NYSE