News From The Grain Floor 1/13/15

Good morning.

 

It is foolish and wrong to mourn the men who died. Rather we should thank God that such men lived.

–          George S. Patton

 

USDA announced 105,000 tons of US corn sold to unknown for ‘14/15 shipment

 

Overnight closes

  • SH up 7 ¼ at 1023 ¼
  • CH up 3 ¼ at 405 ¼
  • WH up 10 ½ at 566
  • KC WH up 9 ½ at 600
  • MWH up 6 ¾ at 602
  • SMH up 2.50 at 343.70
  • BOH up 16 at 3276
  • RRH down .50 at 1145.50

 

Overnight volume

  • SH 19,975
  • CH 13,479
  • WH 8,216
  • KC WH 1,059
  • MWH 328
  • SMH 4,866
  • BOH 10,436
  • RRH 36

 

Opening calls

  • Beans 6-8 higher
  • Corn 3-5 higher
  • Wheat 8-12 higher
  • KC wheat 8-12 higher
  • Minneapolis wheat 5-7 higher
  • Meal 2.00-3.00 higher
  • Bean oil 10-20 higher
  • Rice steady lower

 

Dollar, stock market, gold, and silver higher. Crude oil lower.

 

Nikkei down .64%

Hang Seng up .8%

Shanghai Index up .2%

 

China’s December Trade Balance report came out last night

  • China December trade balance $49.1 billion expecting $49.85 billion
  • China December exports +9.9% expecting +6.8%
  • China December imports -2.3 expecting -7.4%

 

China grain closings = beans down 39, corn down 2, meal down 40, palm oil down 52, and bean oil down 66

 

Malaysian palm oil down 9.

 

CIMB estimated Malaysia’s January palm oil ending stocks

 

China’s customs data said China imported 8.53 MMT of soybeans in December (record) up 41.45% from November

 

China customs data said China imported 71.4 MMT of soybeans in 2014 up 12.65% from 2013.

 

Chinese industry analysts – Weekly Chinese crush breakdown

  • For the week Jan 3-9th total crush volume at 1,675,950 tons up 11.75% from a week ago
  • For the week Jan 3 -9th total crush capacity utilization at 55.73% up 5.66% from a week ago
  • Total ‘14/15 (Oct 1, 2014 –Jan 9, 2015) crush volume at 21,015,650 tons up 5.60% from a year ago
  • Total 2015 (Jan 1 -9th) crush volume at 2,085,950 tons up 5.27% from a year ago
  • As of Jan 9th total imported bean stocks at 4.4905 MMT vs. 4.3322 MMT a week ago and down 11.54% from a year ago
  • Estimated January bean imports at 6.894 MMT
  • Estimated Feb bean imports at 4.5 MMT
  • Estimated March bean imports at 4.7 MMT
  • Estimated April bean imports at 5.6 MMT

 

Russian Traders Lobby Group said Russia strengthens informal grain export curbs in 2015 –Reuters

 

Russian Traders Lobby Group said Russia’s Informal curbs complicate grain exports, stop them from time to time – Reuters

 

Russian Traders Lobby Group asks government to ease informal curbs before launch of export tax on February 1st – Reuters

 

Russia bought 8,505 tons of intervention grain . Total bought since Sept 30th = 308,860 tons. Government plans to buy 5.0 MMT of intervention grain.

 

Taiwan MFIG bought 50,000 tons of optional origin (possibly US) corn for Feb-March shipment

 

Taiwan Sugar Corp. seeks 23,000 tons of US corn and 12,000 tons of US beans for Feb-March shipment

 

Japan seeks 146,819 tons of food wheat for Feb-March shipment. Breakdown

  • 3,350 tons of US western white wheat
  • 25,240 tons of HRW US wheat
  • 25,577 tons of US dark northern spring wheat
  • 61,392 tons of Canadian western red spring wheat
  • 31,260 tons of Australian white wheat

 

Index fund rebalance continues. Ends tomorrow.

 

Deliveries

  • Bean oil 135 with the date at 1/09/15
  • Rice 30 with the date current
  • Beans 93 with the date at 12/31/14
  • No soymeal

 

Receipt Registrations as of yesterday afternoon

  • Wheat  = 164
  • Oats = 98
  • Corn = 1,017
  • Ethanol = 0
  • DDGs = 0
  • Beans = 121
  • Bean oil = 3,336
    • 41 bean oil receipts canceled yesterday  afternoon
      • 4 out of Ag Processing,  Emmetsburg IA
      • 37 out of Cargill  Creve Coeur IL
  • Soymeal = 0
  • Rice = 1,296
  • KC wheat = 318

 

Moving averages

  • SH 20 day 1039 ½
  • SH 50 day 1038
  • SH 100 day 1014
  • CH 20 day 405 ½
  • CH 50 day 395
  • CH 200 day 415
  • WH 50 day 579 ¼
  • WH 100 day 554
  • KC WH 100 day 612
  • MWH 50 day 609 ½
  • MWH 100 day 598 ¾
  • BOH 20 day 3259
  • BOH 50 day 3274
  • BOH 100 day 3295
  • SMH 20 day 351.70
  • SMH 50 day 351.80
  • SMH 200 day 356.40

 

Open interest as of yesterday’s close

  • Total corn 1,273,167 open, down 635
  • Jan beans 1,555 open, down 1,882
  • Total beans 614,603 open, up 3,485
  • Jan meal 902 open, down 557
  • Total soymeal 333,137 open, up 2,831
  • Jan bean oil 229 open, down 180
  • Total bean oil 359,863 open, down 5,596
  • Total wheat 371,564 open, down 2,185
  • Total KC wheat 132,235 open, down 1,004

 

Upcoming reports/events

  • Weekly API energy inventory report comes out today at 330 pm CST
  • Weekly DOE energy inventory report comes out tomorrow at 930 am CST. Expecting
    • Crude a build of 1.75 MB
    • Gas a build of 3.75 MB
    • Distillates a build of 2.35 MB
  • Last trading day for Jan futures is tomorrow , futures expire at noon CST
  • Surveyors SGS and Intertek will come out on Thursday with their Malaysian Jan 1-15th palm oil export estimates
  • Informa comes out on Thursday at 1030 am with ‘15/16 US acreage estimates.
  • NOPA December crush report comes out on Thursday at 11 am CST
  • I will be out of the office starting Friday January 16th and will return on Monday January 26th. If you need assistance you can call the desk at 312-588-5508.
  • ECB meets in Frankfurt for the first time in 2015 on January 22nd
  • February options expire Jan 23rd at 115 pm CST
  • Greece elections January 25th
  • FOMC 2 day policy meeting January 27-28
  • USDA to restart monthly US ethanol reports in February 2015
  • USDA to restart month Census crush reports in July 2015

 

Data sources: DowJones , Bloomberg, Reuters , DTN news, barchart.com and CME Group, NYSE