News From The Grain Floor 11/23/15

USDA announced 251,000 tons of US beans sold to China for ’15/16 shipment

Mauricio Macri won Argentina’s presidential elections yesterday. As expected

  • New government will take office on December 11th
  • Macri said he would lower export taxes on grains and soybeans.

Overnight closes:

  • SF down 12 ½ at 845 – new contract lows overnight of 844 ½
  • CH  down 3 at 26,821
  • WH down 2 at 488
  • KC WH down 2 ¼ at 468 ¼
  • MWH down 1 ½ at 507 ¼
  • SMF down 3.50 at 279.50 – new contract low overnight of 279.40
  • BOF down 33 at 2785

Overnight volume:

  • SF 32,320
  • CH  26,821
  • WH 8,869
  • KC WH 1,889
  • MWH 1,045
  • SMF13,815
  • BOF 17,051

Overnight option volume:

  • Corn 2,875
  • Wheat 234
  • Beans 7,854
  • Meal 335
  • Bean oil 149 

Total EOO’s cleared from previous session:

Contract Year Month

Product Desc

P/C Ind

Strike Price

Ex Pit Volume – CME Group

201512

CHICAGO SRW WHEAT OPTIONS

C

500

1,000

201603

CORN OPTIONS

P

380

68

201603

CORN OPTIONS

P

370

40

201603

CORN OPTIONS

P

390

30

201603

SOYBEAN OPTIONS

P

880

9

Funds / COT:

 

COT

COT

COT

 

 

 

Fund

COT Record

 

COT Record

 

 

10-Nov

17-Nov

to COT

18-Nov

19-Nov

20-Nov

Estimate

Long

 

Short

 

Corn

-105469

-139292

-33823

0

0

-1000

-140292

9/28/2010

372756

-240854

10/29/2013

Wheat

-65209

-79113

-13904

-3000

5000

-3000

-80113

10/24/2006

30146

-110792

5/5/2015

Soybeans

-78,894

-76,422

2472

-5000

2000

-3000

-82,422

5/1/2012

224822

-92991

5/26/2015

Soymeal

-5501

-18980

-13479

-4000

1000

-3000

-24980

11/11/2014

70115

-22711

4/14/2015

Soyoil

-11124

-10263

861

-2000

2000

4000

-6263

4/10/2007

81193

-80562

1/21/2014

South American weather:

As of last Friday, soybean planting in Brazil is 70% complete…that’s behind last year’s rate of 76%…In Argentina, 37% of corn, 31% of soybeans and 74% of sunflowers were planted as of Thursday. Looking at Brazil first for the next few days, rains should take place every day this week except Sunday across the South (and also Paraguay) which will increase wetness in these areas. In Southeast Brazil we should have normal rainfall in the next 7 to 10 days with thunderstorms taking place in the west as well….however, below normal rainfall is expected across / adjacent Mato Grosso where more rain could be used as pockets of dryness still exist in this area. In Argentina, widespread rain is expected on Friday which should be followed by several days of drying. See below for weather maps.

News:

Dec Euro at 175.75 down .50

USD – BRL at 3.7301 up .0241

Japan markets closed today for holiday

Nikkei closed for holiday

Hang Seng closes down .4%

Shanghai Index closes down .6%

Concerns about China’s economy continues

China grain markets closes – soybeans up 16, corn up 4, soy meal down 55, palm oil up 58 , and bean oil up 70

Malaysian palm oil market closes down 6.

China’s General Administration of Customs – China’s October imports.

  • Wheat 315,739 tons , up 682% from a year ago
  • Barley 998,367 tons , up 356% from a year ago
  • Corn 42,883 tons , down 62.44% from a year ago
  • DDGS 660,193 tons , up 460% from a year ago
  • Rice 322,601 tons , up 79.41% from a year ago
  • Soybeans 5,531,696 tons , up 34.85% from a year ago

o   3,884,696 tons from Brazil , up 47.25% from a year ago

o   512,139 tons from the US , up 103.5% from a year ago

o   919,018 tons from Argentina, up 30.17% from a year ago

  • Rapeseed 364,680 tons, up 94.94% from a year ago
  • Rapeseed oil 43,768 tons , down 27.95% from a year ago
  • Rapeseed meal 4,836 tons, down 71.15% from a year ago
  • Soybean oil 84,728 tons, down 11.64% from a year ago
  • Soy meal 4,214 tons, up 485% from a year ago
  • Palm Oil 476,253 tons , up 56.05% from a year ago

China’s General Administration of Customs – China’s January-October imports.

  • Wheat 2,561,628 tons , down 11.07% from a year ago
  • Barley 9,719,395 tons , up 116.3% from a year ago
  • Corn 4,516,893 tons , up 164% from a year ago
  • Rice 2,636,799 tons , up 31.43% from a year ago
  • Soybeans 65,180,595 tons , up 14.66% from a year ago

o   36,924,067 tons from Brazil , up 17.98% from a year ago

o   17,512,895 tons from the US , down .38% from a year ago

o   7,836,986 tons from Argentina, up 47.5% from a year ago

  • Rapeseed 3,781,990 tons , down 7.61% from a year ago
  • Rapeseed oil 602,346 tons, down 13.57% from a year ago
  • Rapeseed meal 122,315 tons , down 52.15% from a year ago
  • Soybean oil 711,161 tons, down 34.42% from a year ago
  • Soy meal 54,847 tons , up 225% from a year ago
  • Palm Oil 4,778,978 tons , up 12.81% from a year ago

Receipt Registrations as of Friday afternoon: – no changes

  • Wheat = 338
  • Oats = 12
  • Corn = 36
  • Ethanol = 0
  • DDGs = 0
  • Beans = 167
  • Bean oil = 3,024
  • Soymeal = 0
  • Rice = 2,132
  • KC wheat = 223
  • Minneapolis wheat =  530

Open interest as of Friday’s close:

  • Total corn –   1,380,431 open , down 10,080
  • Total soybeans – 696, 452 open, up 7,932
  • Total soymeal – 432,444 open, up 2,497
  • Total bean oil –   454,418 open, down 2,065
  • Total wheat – 384,994 open , down 11,162
  • Total KC wheat – 201,744 , down 936

Upcoming reports/events:

  • Weekly US export inspections report comes out today at 10 am CST
  • Weekly US crop progress report comes out today at 3 pm CST
  • Weekly API energy inventory report comes out tomorrow at 330 pm CST
  • SGS and Intertek will estimate Malaysia’s Nov 1-25th palm oil exports on Wednesday
  • Holiday trading hours schedule for Thanksgiving holiday on Thursday. See attachment

o   US grain markets will trade normal day session hours on Wednesday November 25th

o   US grain overnight markets will not open on Wednesday night.

o   US grain markets will be closed for the day and night session on Thursday November 26th (Thanksgiving).

o   US grain markets reopen on Friday November 27th at 830 am CST , but will close early at 12:05 pm CST .

  • Position day for December futures is Friday November 27th. Markets close at 1205 pm CST on that day. Traders should be out of long positions or risk delivery
  • First notice day for December futures is Monday Nov 30th
  • US EPA reaffirms plan to finalize biofuels plan by the end of November
  • ABARES come out on Tuesday December 1st with their Australian crop estimate updates
  • OPEC meeting on December 4th in Vienna.
  • Estimated commodity index rebalances for January 2016 . Roll will be January 8-14th.

o   Estimates by Morgan Stanley

  • Feeder Cattle to buy 1,996 contracts
  • Lean Hogs to buy 10,441 contracts
  • Coffee to buy 7,192 contracts
  • Sugar to sell 26,993 contracts
  • Nickel to buy 7,022 contracts
  • Copper to buy 4,845 contracts
  • Cotton to sell 4,652 contracts
  • Zinc to buy 4,934 contracts
  • Gasoil to sell 11,751 contracts
  • KC wheat to buy 3,150 contracts
  • RBOB to sell 4,618 contracts
  • Gold to sell 5,854 contracts
  • Bean oil to buy 5,075 contracts
  • Silver to sell 1,982 contracts
  • Soybean meal to buy 4,176 contracts
  • Corn to sell 11,943 contracts
  • Live Cattle to buy 2,218 contracts
  • Heating Oil to sell 3,097 contracts
  • Soybeans to buy 5,017 contracts
  • Crude oil to buy 12,857 contracts
  • Aluminum to buy 5,783 contracts
  • Brent Oil to sell 12,749 contracts
  • Natural Gas to buy 4,355 contracts
  • Cocoa to buy 356 contracts
  • Lead to buy 161 contracts
  • Wheat to sell 14 contracts

Data sources: Dow Jones , Bloomberg, Reuters , DTN news, barchart.com, CME Group and NYSE