News From The Grain Floor 1/12/15

Good morning.

 

When a man tells you that he got rich through hard work, ask him: ‘Whose?’

–          Don Marquis

 

USDA January 2014 final US crop production, quarterly grain stocks, US winter wheat seedings, and supply and demand report comes out today at 11 am CST. See attachment for recap table for report.

 

No USDA announcements this morning.

 

Overnight closes

  • SH down 4 ¾ at 1047 ½
  • CH down 3 ¾ at 396 ½
  • WH down 2 561 ¾
  • KC WH down 2 ¾ at 597 ¾
  • MWH down 3 ½ at 600
  • SMH down 1.50 at 347.60
  • BOH down 4 at 3364
  • RRH down 2.50 at 1152

 

Overnight volume

  • SH 12,838
  • CH 21,306
  • WH 5,773
  • KC WH 770
  • MWH 321
  • SMH 3,506
  • BOH 7,484
  • RRH 26

 

Opening calls

  • Beans 3-5 lower
  • Corn 3-5 lower
  • Wheat 1-3 lower
  • KC wheat 2-4 lower
  • Minneapolis wheat 3-5 lower
  • Meal 1.00-2.00 lower
  • Bean oil steady to 10 lower
  • Rice 2 -4 lower

 

Crude lower. Dollar, stock market, gold, and silver higher.

 

Japan markets are closed today for holiday

Hang Seng up .5%

Shanghai Index down 1.7%

 

December unemployment report from Friday morning

  • Non-farm payroll +252K expecting +240K
  • December unemployment rate 5.6% expecting 5.7% and vs. 5.8% in November

 

China grain closings = beans up 19, corn up 5, meal down 5, palm oil down 14, and bean oil down 2

 

Malaysian palm oil up 13

 

Malaysian Palm Oil Board – December palm oil data report

  • Palm oil output at 1,364,797 tons expecting 1,357,345 tons and vs. 1,750,567 tons in November
  • Palm oil stocks at 2,013,326 tons expecting 2,019,500 tons and vs. 2,276,177 tons in November
  • Palm oil exports at 1,519,549 tons expecting 1,490,846 tons and vs. 1,513,103 tons in November

 

SGS estimated Malaysian Jan 1-10th palm oil exports at 320,714 tons down 19% from a month ago

 

Intertek estimated Malaysian Jan 1-10th palm oil exports at 355,846 tons down 12.7% from a month ago

 

Talk/reports from Friday China was eyeing and or buying US corn cargoes off the PNW. Some analysts do not believe this is true.

 

Talk/Reports China bought a few cargoes of US beans last week off the PNW

 

Hearing China has 10 more cargoes of soybeans to buy for February shipment

 

China state reserves auction from Tuesday – Thursday last week results

  • Corn offered 4.72 MMT , sold 1.7 MMT or 36.02% of total offered
  • Wheat offered 2.39 MMT, sold 2.0 MMT or 83.60% of total offered

 

China’s Ministry of Commerce estimated China’s Dec bean imports at 7.29 MMT vs. 8.256 MMT from November

 

China’s Ministry of Commerce estimated China’s January bean imports at 5.4 MMT

 

CNGOIC estimated China’s 2014 corn imports at 2.4 MMT vs. 3.27 MMT in 2013

 

CNGOIC estimated China’s 2014 DDGs imports at 5.8 MMT vs. 4.0 MMT in 2013

 

CNGOIC estimated China’s 2014 corn output at 215.7 MMT down 1.3% from 2013

 

CNGOIC estimated China’s 2014 wheat imports at 3.0 MMT, rice imports at 2.5 MMT, barley imports at 4.8 MMT, and sorghum imports at 6.0 MMT

 

Aprosoja said  Mato Grosso bean harvest is about 2% complete. Reports of good yields, 10-15% higher than a year ago

 

AgRural said Brazil had sold 31% of their ‘14/15 soybean crop by the end of December up 5% from the end of November and vs. 43% a year ago .

 

AgRural estimated Brazil’s ‘14/15 bean crop at a record high of 94.9 MMT vs. CONAB’s estimate of 95.9 MMT

 

Oil World said India exported 454,000 tons of soybean meal from October –December vs. 1.3 MMT a year ago .

 

CME lowered margins on soybeans

 

UkrAgroConsult said Ukraine’s Ag Min will meet with traders tomorrow to discuss maximum limits for exports.

 

Last week Cordonnier estimated ‘14/15 Brazilian bean crop at 94.0 MMT unchanged from his previous estimate

 

Last week Cordonnier estimated ‘14/15 Brazilian corn crop at 74.0 MMT unchanged from his previous estimate

 

Last week Cordonnier estimated ‘14/15 Argentine bean crop at 55.0 MMT unchanged from his previous estimate

 

Last week Cordonnier estimated ‘14/15 Argentine corn crop at 21.0 MMT unchanged from his previous estimate

 

Argentina weather forecast mostly favorable for the next 7 days

 

Southern Brazil weather mostly favorable for the next 7 day

 

Mato Grosso, Sao Paulo, and Minas Gerais Brazil hot and dry next 7 days

 

Somar said cold front starting Jan 22nd to bring more rain and lower temperatures to Brazil crop areas.

 

Index fund rebalance continues. Ends Wednesday January 14th

 

Deliveries

  • Bean oil 55 with the date at 1/08/15
  • Rice 330 with the date current
  • Beans 120 with the date at 12/23/14
  • No soymeal

 

Buenos Aires Grains Exchange – weekly Argentina crop report from Thursday

  • Bean planting is 93.5% complete vs. 90.6% a week ago and vs. 90.9% a year ago
  • Bean planting area estimated at 20.6 MH unchanged from previous estimate
  • Corn planting is 80.9% complete vs. 73% a week ago and vs. 82.8% a year ago
  • Corn planting area estimated at 3.0 MH unchanged from previous estimate
  • Sunflower production estimated at 2.4 MMT
  • Wheat harvest is 95.9% complete
  • Wheat crop estimated at 11.2 MMT vs. previous estimate of 11.5 MMT

 

Moving averages

  • SH 20 day 1043
  • SH 50 day 1039
  • CH 20 day 405 ½
  • CH 50 day 394 ½
  • WH 50 day 579 ¼
  • WH 100 day 554 ¼
  • KC WH 100 day 612 ½
  • MWH 50 day 609 ½
  • MWH 100 day 599 ¼
  • BOH 20 day 3263
  • BOH 50 day 3280
  • BOH 100 day 3297
  • SMH 20 day 352.70
  • SMH 50 day 351.90
  • SMH 100 day 337.20
  • SMH 200 day 356.60

 

Estimated fund activity from Friday

  • Wheat sold 2K
  • Corn bought 8K
  • Beans bought 2K
  • Meal bought 1K
  • Bean oil sold 1K

 

Open interest as of Friday’s close

  • Total corn 1,273,790 open, up 6,780
  • Jan beans 3,437 open, down 1,765
  • Total beans 611,432 open, down 3,484
  • Jan meal 1,459 open, down 497
  • Total soymeal 330,943 open, down 1,267
  • Jan bean oil 409 open, down 346
  • Total bean oil 365,574 open, down 1,444
  • Total wheat 373,837 open, down 1,291

 

Upcoming reports/events

  • Weekly US export inspections report comes out today at 10 am CST
  • Weekly API energy inventory report comes out tomorrow at 330 pm CST
  • Last trading day for Jan futures is Wednesday , futures expire at noon CST
  • NOPA December crush report comes out on Thursday at 11 am CST
  • I will be out of the office starting Friday January 16th and will return on Monday January 26th. If you need assistance you can call the desk at 312-588-5508.
  • ECB meets in Frankfurt for the first time in 2015 on January 22nd
  • February options expire Jan 23rd at 115 pm CST
  • Greece elections January 25th
  • FOMC 2 day policy meeting January 27-28
  • USDA to restart monthly US ethanol reports in February 2015
  • USDA to restart month Census crush reports in July 2015

 

Data sources: DowJones , Bloomberg, Reuters , DTN news, barchart.com and CME Group, NYSE