News From The Grain Floor 11/20/15

December options expire today at 120 pm CST.

USDA announced 120,000 tons of US beans sold to unknown for ‘15/16 shipment

Argentina’s runoff presidential elections takes place on Sunday.

  • Analysts / traders are expecting Macri to win election , will take office on December 10th
  • Expectations the new government will lower grain and soybean export taxes .

o   Analysts expect new government will be more aggressive cutting / reducing corn and wheat export taxes in the short term , then with soybean export taxes

o   Analysts saying the impact could be more bearish for gains vs. soybeans

Overnight closes:

  • SF down 6 ¾ at 853 ¼
  • CZ down ¾ at 363 ½
  • WZ up a ¼ at 491
  • KC WZ down a ½ at 462
  • MWZ up a ¼ at 509
  • SMZ down 2.10 at 284.50
  • BOZ down 11 at 2744

Overnight volume:

  • SF 22,484
  • CZ 11,129
  • WZ 1,819
  • KC WZ 410
  • MWZ 154
  • SMZ 5,338
  • BOZ 7,569

Overnight option volume:

  • Corn 1,841
  • Wheat 613
  • Beans 1,917
  • Meal 214
  • Bean oil 26

Total EOO’s cleared from previous session:

Contract Year Month

Product Desc

P/C Ind

Strike Price

Ex Pit Volume – CME Group

201603

CORN OPTIONS

P

380

377

201603

CORN OPTIONS

P

390

183

201603

CORN OPTIONS

P

370

20

201603

SOYBEAN OPTIONS

P

880

19

201603

CORN OPTIONS

C

370

7

Funds:

 

COT

COT

COT

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Current

 

3-Nov

10-Nov

to COT

11-Nov

12-Nov

13-Nov

16-Nov

17-Nov

18-Nov

19-Nov

Estimate

Corn

-29731

-105469

-75738

10000

-2000

-7000

3000

2000

0

0

-99469

Wheat

-65726

-65209

517

4000

3000

-2000

0

-5000

-3000

5000

-63209

Soybeans

-50,299

-78,894

-28595

3000

2000

-3000

3000

3000

-5000

2000

-73894

Soymeal

5983

-5501

-11484

2000

-2000

-3000

0

-500

-4000

1000

-12001

Soyoil

1107

-11124

-12231

-2000

2000

-3000

3000

2000

-2000

2000

-9124

South American weather:

Seasonably-scattered t-storms affect Center-West and Southeast Brazil through the weekend as a cool front dissipates. Dry and seasonable to cool weather occur to the south as a surface-level high passes, gradually improving conditions for planting in Argentina, Paraguay, and southern Brazil. Changes begin Sun.-Mon. across South Brazil and Paraguay when a series of cool fronts begin to pass and trigger several rounds of t-storm next week, resulting in heavy rainfall of 2.00” to 4.00” and the potential for areas of excessive wetness to further develop. Seasonably-scattered t-storms also continue across Center-West and Southeast Brazil next week as each front dissipates, ultimately resulting in near-to slightly below-normal of 1.75” to 3.25” over the next 10 days, most likely allowing planting to advance since frequent rounds of heavy t-storms do not occur. Otherwise, drying initially breaks and planting slows across the southwest third to half of corn, sunflower, and wheat production in Argentina when a weak wave passes and triggers scattered t-storms around Tuesday. See below for maps

News:

Brazilian markets closed today for holiday , trade resumes Monday

Dec Euro at 1.0702 down .0034

USD – BRL at 3.7106 down .0073

Nikkei closes up .1% and up 1.4% on week

  • Japan markets closed on Monday for holiday

Hang Seng closes up 1.1% and up 1.6% on week

Shanghai Index closes up .4% and up 1.4% on week

Concerns about Chinese economy continues

  • People’s Bank of China took measures to aid struggling economy

Expectations continue US Feds will raise interest rates in December . FOMC meeting two day policy meeting is December 15-16th. Fed announcement of Wednesday December 16th at 1 pm CST.  

China grain markets closes – soybeans down 40, corn down 12, soymeal down 39, palm oil down 70, and bean oil down 20

Malaysian palm oil market closes down 9

SGS estimated Malaysia’s Nov 1-20th palm oil exports at 993,943 tons up 5.6% from a month ago

Intertek Agri Services estimated Malaysia’s Nov 1-20th palm oil exports at 970,057 tons up 4.3% from a month ago

India’s National Commodity and Derivatives Exchange imposed an additional margin of 5% on soybean and rapeseed futures.

Talk yesterday that Brazil bought one cargo of US HRW wheat

Argentina Ag Min estimated ‘15/16 Argentina wheat crop at 10-12 MMT

Argentina’s Ag Min estimated ’15.16 Argentina soybean area at a record high 20.6 million hectares

Tunisia bought 125,000 tons of optional origin soft wheat for Dec-Feb shipment

Tunisia bought 92,000 tons of optional origin durum wheat for Feb-April shipment

Tunisia bought 50,000 tons of optional origin feed barley for January shipment

There are no major weather concerns at the present time, that has not already been largely discounted.

Receipt Registrations as of yesterday afternoon:

  • Wheat = 338
  • Oats = 12
  • Corn = 36
  • Ethanol = 0
  • DDGs = 0
  • Beans = 167

o   22 bean receipts were canceled yesterday afternoon

  • Out of Cargill Burns Harbor IN
  • Bean oil = 3,024
  • Soymeal = 0
  • Rice = 2,132
  • KC wheat = 223
  • Minneapolis wheat =  530

o   72 Minneapolis wheat receipts were canceled yesterday afternoon

Upcoming reports/events:

  • Weekly COT report comes out today at 230 pm CST
  • Japan on holiday on Monday
  • Weekly US export inspections report comes out on Monday at 10 am CST
  • Weekly US crop progress report comes out on Monday at 3 pm CST
  • Next week’s holiday trading hours schedule.

o   US grain markets will trade normal day session hours on Wednesday November 25th

o   US grain overnight markets will not open on Wednesday night.

o   US grain markets will be closed for the day and night session on Thursday November 26th (Thanksgiving).

o   US grain markets reopen on Friday November 27th at 830 am CST , but will close early at 12:05 pm CST .

  • Position day for December futures is Friday November 27th. Markets close at 1205 pm CST on that day. Traders should be out of long positions or risk delivery
  • First notice day for December futures is Monday Nov 30th
  • US EPA reaffirms plan to finalize biofuels plan by the end of November
  • ABARES come out on Tuesday December 1st with their Australian crop estimate updates
  • OPEC meeting on December 4th in Vienna.
  • Estimated commodity index rebalances for January 2016 . Roll will be January 8-14th.

o   Estimates by Morgan Stanley

  • Feeder Cattle to buy 1,996 contracts
  • Lean Hogs to buy 10,441 contracts
  • Coffee to buy 7,192 contracts
  • Sugar to sell 26,993 contracts
  • Nickel to buy 7,022 contracts
  • Copper to buy 4,845 contracts
  • Cotton to sell 4,652 contracts
  • Zinc to buy 4,934 contracts
  • Gasoil to sell 11,751 contracts
  • KC wheat to buy 3,150 contracts
  • RBOB to sell 4,618 contracts
  • Gold to sell 5,854 contracts
  • Bean oil to buy 5,075 contracts
  • Silver to sell 1,982 contracts
  • Soybean meal to buy 4,176 contracts
  • Corn to sell 11,943 contracts
  • Live Cattle to buy 2,218 contracts
  • Heating Oil to sell 3,097 contracts
  • Soybeans to buy 5,017 contracts
  • Crude oil to buy 12,857 contracts
  • Aluminum to buy 5,783 contracts
  • Brent Oil to sell 12,749 contracts
  • Natural Gas to buy 4,355 contracts
  • Cocoa to buy 356 contracts
  • Lead to buy 161 contracts
  • Wheat to sell 14 contracts

Data sources: Dow Jones , Bloomberg, Reuters , DTN news, barchart.com, CME Group and NYSE