News From The Grain Floor 11/19/15

Overnight closes:

  • SF down 1 ½ at 856 ¼
  • CZ up 1 ¾ at 363 ½
  • WZ up 2 ¾ at 486
  • KC WZ up 2 ¼ at 461
  • MWZ up 5 at 505
  • SMZ down .20 at 285.40
  • BOZ down 2 at 2742

Overnight volume:

  • SF 25,686
  • CZ 25,471
  • WZ 4,254
  • KC WZ 2,172
  • MWZ 222
  • SMZ 5,358
  • BOZ 9,932

Overnight option volume:

  • Corn 4,705
  • Wheat 1,060
  • Beans 3,259
  • Meal 181
  • Bean oil 134

Total EOO’s cleared from previous session:

Contract Year Month

Product

P/C

Strike Price

Ex Pit Volume – CME Group

201603

CORN OPTIONS

P

390

275

201603

CORN OPTIONS

P

370

257

201603

CORN OPTIONS

P

380

132

201603

SOYBEAN OPTIONS

P

880

5

Funds:

 

COT

COT

COT

 

 

 

 

 

 

Current

 

3-Nov

10-Nov

to COT

11-Nov

12-Nov

13-Nov

16-Nov

17-Nov

18-Nov

Estimate

Corn

-29731

-105469

-75738

10000

-2000

-7000

3000

2000

0

-99469

Wheat

-65726

-65209

517

4000

3000

-2000

0

-5000

-3000

-68209

Soybeans

-50,299

-78,894

-28595

3000

2000

-3000

3000

3000

-5000

-75,894

Soymeal

5983

-5501

-11484

2000

-2000

-3000

0

-500

-4000

-13001

Soyoil

1107

-11124

-12231

-2000

2000

-3000

3000

2000

-2000

-11124

News:

Dec Euro at 1.0689 up .0040

USD – BRL at 3.7505 down .0142

Nikkei closes up 1.1%

  • BOJ keeps policy unchanged at policy meeting today.

Hang Seng closes up 1.41%

Shanghai Index closes up 1.4%

Weekly US jobless claims came out this morning at -5K to 271K , expecting 270K

China grain markets closes – soybeans down 56, corn down 12, soymeal down 13, palm oil down 34, and bean oil down 24

Malaysian palm oil market closes down 20

South Korea MFG bought 60,000 tons of optional origin , likely from Brazil , soy meal for June shipment

South Korea KFA seeks 65,000 tons of optional origin corn for May shipment

Hearing China bought 2-3 Brazilian bean cargoes for April-May shipment

Hearing China bought at least one cargo of US beans off the PNW yesterday.

Talk/Reports of China buying/seeking US sorghum and DDGs cargoes this week.

Israel bought 80,000 tons of optional origin corn for Feb-April shipment

Israel bought 30,000 tons of optional origin feed wheat for Feb-March shipment

Japan bought 114,491 tons of food wheat for Feb shipment. Breakdown

  • 14,500 tons of US western white wheat
  • 35,910 tons of US HRW wheat
  • 30,380 tons of dark northern spring US wheat
  • 34,151 tons of Canadian western red spring wheat

Indonesia’s National Palm Agency expects Indonesia’s 2016 palm oil exports to fall 2-2.5 million tons from 2015

Strategie Grains estimated ‘15/16 EU soft wheat exports at 26.8 MMT vs. previous estimate of 26.5 MMT

Strategie Grains estimated 2015 EU soft wheat production at 149.8 MMT vs. previous estimate of 149.5 MMT

Strategie Grains estimated 2015 EU soft wheat use in feed at 54.5 MMT vs. previous estimate of 56.0 MMT

Strategie Grains estimated 2015 EU corn crop at 57.3 MMT vs. previous estimate of 57.1 MMT

Strategie Grains estimated 2015 EU barley crop at 60.5 MMT , unchanged from previous estimate

Ukraine Ag Ministry agrees with traders to limit wheat exports in ‘15/16 to 16.6 MMT

Market awaits Argentina presidential elections on Sunday. Expectations new president will lower grain and soybean export taxes. New government will take office on December 10th

Japan customs data showed Japan imported 2,403,863 tons of grain in October up 20.50% from a year ago

  • Imported 1,456,202 tons from the US , up 2.8% from a year ago

Japan customs data showed Japan imported 303,226 tons of soybeans in October up 47.2% from a year ago

  • Imported 164,184 tons from the US up 138% from a year ago

Weekly US export sales report:

  • Wheat ‘15/16 721,900 tons (expecting 200-400,000 tons)
  • Corn ‘15/16 779,800 tons (expecting 500-700,000 tons)
  • Beans ‘15/16  1,797,600 tons (expecting 700,000-1.1 million tons)
  • Meal  ‘15/16 224,100 tons (expecting 150-300,000 tons)
  • Bean oil ‘15/16 37,700 tons (expecting 10-40,000 tons)

Export highlights:

  • Wheat – Net sales of 721,900 metric tons for delivery in marketing year 2015/2016 were up noticeably from the previous week and from the prior 4-week average.  Increases were reported for Thailand (108,000 MT), Nigeria (103,100 MT, including 30,000 MT switched from unknown destinations), Taiwan (92,000 MT), Japan (90,600 MT, including 23,300 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 500 MT), and the Philippines (79,800 MT).  Reductions were reported for unknown destinations (12,400 MT) and El Salvador (1,600 MT).  Exports of 347,000 MT were up 45 percent from the previous week and 46 percent from the prior 4-week average.  The primary destinations were the Philippines (79,800 MT), Nigeria (61,800 MT), Japan (39,600 MT), Ecuador (38,500 MT), Italy (34,500 MT), and Brazil (27,500 MT).
  • Corn – Net sales of 779,800 MT for 2015/2016–a marketing-year high–were up 26 percent from the previous week and 46 percent from the prior 4-week average.  Increases were reported for Mexico (233,500 MT), Japan (184,500 MT, including 56,900 MT switched from unknown destinations), unknown destinations (178,700 MT), South Korea (62,000 MT), Peru (46,500 MT), and Guatemala (24,200 MT, including 21,700 MT switched from unknown destinations).  Reductions were reported for the French West Indies (6,600 MT).  Exports of 389,000 MT were up 44 percent from the previous week, but down 3 percent from the prior 4-week average.  The primary destinations were Mexico (119,200 MT), Japan (106,400 MT), Peru (61,000 MT), Guatemala (30,000 MT), Colombia (25,200 MT), and Taiwan (14,700 MT).
  • Beans – Net sales of 1,797,600 MT for 2015/2016 were up 39 percent from the previous week and 23 percent from the prior 4-week average.  Increases were reported for China (1,644,400 MT, including 607,100 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 16,300 MT), the Netherlands (90,400 MT, including 70,000 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 500 MT), Spain (72,700 MT, including 65,000 MT switched from unknown destinations), Taiwan (68,600 MT, including 50,000 MT switched from unknown destinations), Egypt (66,000 MT), and Portugal (60,600 MT, including 31,500 MT switched from unknown destinations and 29,100 MT switched from Canada).  Reductions were reported for unknown destinations (352,100 MT) and Canada (29,000 MT).  Net sales of 500 MT for 2016/2017 were reported for Japan.  Exports of 2,271,000 MT were down 9 percent from the previous week and 5 percent from the prior 4-week average.  The primary destinations were China (1,747,800 MT), the Netherlands (90,400 MT), Taiwan (78,500 MT), Spain (72,700 MT), and Bangladesh (53,800 MT).
  • Meal – Net sales of 224,100 MT for 2015/2016 were up 8 percent from the previous week, but down 4 percent from the prior 4-week average.  Increases were reported for Ecuador (62,300 MT), Mexico (37,800 MT), Egypt (25,000 MT), Peru (24,000 MT), Guatemala (22,900 MT, including 7,500 MT switched from unknown destinations and 600 MT switched from El Salvador), and the Dominican Republic (9,200 MT).  Reductions were reported for the French West Indies (4,200 MT) and El Salvador (1,000 MT).  Net sales of 23,200 MT for 2016/2017 were for Ecuador (21,100 MT), Guatemala (1,600 MT), Canada (300 MT) and Mexico (200 MT).  Exports of 206,400 MT were down 5 percent from the previous week, but up 1 percent from the prior 4-week average.  Increases were primarily to the Philippines (49,600 MT), Mexico (47,000 MT), Thailand (29,700 MT), Guatemala (25,200 MT), and Algeria (16,500 MT).
  • Bean oil – Net sales of 37,700 MT for 2015/2016 were up 30 percent from the previous week, but down 12 percent from the prior 4-week average.  Increases were reported for Tunisia (14,200 MT switched from unknown destinations), South Korea (11,000 MT switched from unknown destinations), Algeria (5,800 MT switched from unknown destinations), Mexico (3,800 MT), and Peru (3,300 MT).  Reductions were reported for unknown destinations (2,500 MT).  Exports of 48,600 MT–a marketing-year high–were up 69 percent from the previous week and up noticeably from the prior 4-week average.  Increases were primarily to Tunisia (14,200 MT), South Korea (11,000 MT), the Dominican Republic (10,500 MT), and Mexico (6,400 MT).

Receipt Registrations as of yesterday afternoon:

  • Wheat = 338

o   3 wheat receipts were canceled yesterday afternoon

  • 1 out of Bunge Blytheville , AR
  • 2 out of Bunge Finley,  TN
  • Oats = 12

o   1 oat receipt was canceled yesterday afternoon

  • Out of Riverland Ag Corp Malt One, MN
  • Corn = 36
  • Ethanol = 0
  • DDGs = 0
  • Beans = 189
  • Bean oil = 3,024
  • Soymeal = 0
  • Rice = 2,132
  • KC wheat = 223
  • Minneapolis wheat =  602

Moving averages:

  • Dec corn 20 day 371
  • Dec wheat 20 day 504 ½
  • Dec wheat 50 day 503
  • Dec Minneapolis wheat 20 day 511
  • Dec bean oil 20 day 2776
  • Dec bean oil 50 day 2777

Open interest as of yesterday’s close:

  • Total corn –  1,394,800 open, down 9,300
  • Total soybeans – 689,830 open, up 10,555
  • Total soymeal – 431,420 open, up 4,596
  • Total bean oil –  462,941 open, up 7,582
  • Total wheat – 395,403 open, up 1,623
  • Total KC wheat – 201,836 open, down 946

Upcoming reports/events:

  • Weekly EIA Nat Gas storage report comes out today at 930 am CST , expecting +22 BCF
  • Surveyors SGS and Intertek Agri Services will come out tomorrow with their Malaysian Nov 1-20th palm oil export estimates
  • December options expire tomorrow. Grain options expire at 1:20 pm CST
  • Weekly COT report comes out tomorrow at 230 pm CST
  • Argentina’s runoff presidential elections takes place on Sunday.

o   Analysts / traders are expecting Macri to win election

o   Expectations that new president will lower grain and soybean export taxes when they take office on December 10th

  • Next week’s holiday trading hours schedule.

o   US grain markets will trade normal day session hours on Wednesday November 25th

o   US grain overnight markets will not open on Wednesday night.

o   US grain markets will be closed for the day and night session on Thursday November 26th (Thanksgiving).

o   US grain markets reopen on Friday November 27th at 830 am CST , but will close early at 12:05 pm CST .

  • US EPA reaffirms plan to finalize biofuels plan by the end of November
  • ABARES come out on Tuesday December 1st with their Australian crop estimate updates
  • OPEC meeting on December 4th in Vienna.
  • Estimated commodity index rebalances for January 2016 . Roll will be January 8-14th.

o   Estimates by Morgan Stanley

  • Feeder Cattle to buy 1,996 contracts
  • Lean Hogs to buy 10,441 contracts
  • Coffee to buy 7,192 contracts
  • Sugar to sell 26,993 contracts
  • Nickel to buy 7,022 contracts
  • Copper to buy 4,845 contracts
  • Cotton to sell 4,652 contracts
  • Zinc to buy 4,934 contracts
  • Gasoil to sell 11,751 contracts
  • KC wheat to buy 3,150 contracts
  • RBOB to sell 4,618 contracts
  • Gold to sell 5,854 contracts
  • Bean oil to buy 5,075 contracts
  • Silver to sell 1,982 contracts
  • Soybean meal to buy 4,176 contracts
  • Corn to sell 11,943 contracts
  • Live Cattle to buy 2,218 contracts
  • Heating Oil to sell 3,097 contracts
  • Soybeans to buy 5,017 contracts
  • Crude oil to buy 12,857 contracts
  • Aluminum to buy 5,783 contracts
  • Brent Oil to sell 12,749 contracts
  • Natural Gas to buy 4,355 contracts
  • Cocoa to buy 356 contracts
  • Lead to buy 161 contracts
  • Wheat to sell 14 contracts

Data sources: Dow Jones , Bloomberg, Reuters , DTN news, barchart.com, CME Group and NYSE