News From The Grain Floor 11/18/15

Overnight closes:

  • SF up 3 at 867
  • CZ up 2 at 364
  • WZ up 2 at 489 ½
  • KC WZ up 2 ½ at 465 ¾
  • MWZ up 2 ¾ at 504 ½
  • SMZ up 1.20 at 289.70
  • BOZ up 10 at 2757

Overnight volume:

  • SF 9,383
  • CZ 25,826
  • WZ 5,420
  • KC WZ 1,432
  • MWZ 391
  • SMZ 3,304
  • BOZ 14,268

Overnight option volume:

  • Corn 1,339
  • Wheat 1,450
  • Beans 3,159
  • Meal 664
  • Bean oil 75

Total EOO’s cleared from previous session:

Contract Year Month

Product

P/C

Strike Price

Ex Pit Volume – CME Group

201603

CORN OPTIONS

P

380

208

201603

CORN OPTIONS

P

390

174

201603

SOYBEAN OPTIONS

P

880

2

Funds:

 

COT

COT

COT

 

 

 

 

 

Current

 

3-Nov

10-Nov

to COT

11-Nov

12-Nov

13-Nov

16-Nov

17-Nov

Estimate

Corn

-29731

-105469

-75738

10000

-2000

-7000

3000

2000

-99469

Wheat

-65726

-65209

517

4000

3000

-2000

0

-5000

-65209

Soybeans

-50,299

-78,894

-28595

3000

2000

-3000

3000

3000

-70894

Soymeal

5983

-5501

-11484

2000

-2000

-3000

0

-500

-9001

Soy oil

1107

-11124

-12231

-2000

2000

-3000

3000

2000

-9124

South American Weather:

Except for areas in Northeast Brazil and Minas Gerais where it’s been dry, most grain and oilseed areas of Brazil were seasonable to wet in recent weeks, limiting dryness concerns. However, areas of wetness exist from South into Southeast Brazil. Until the end of the month of November, soil moisture should remain adequate through the , though pockets of field flooding likely develop in / near Parana and Paraguay. In Argentina, a weak cool front could trigger a few t-storms in southern sunflower and wheat areas Sunday night and Monday, slightly slowing planting and harvesting. See maps below.

News:

Dec Euro at 1.0666 up .0015

USD – BRL at 3.7966 down .0167

Nikkei closes up .09%

Hang Seng closes down .34%

Shanghai Index closes down 1.0%

Terror concerns , more terrorism-related news from Europe , news of bomb threats to two Air France flights bound from the US to Paris, bomb threats yesterday in Germany

FOMC will release the minutes from the two day FOMC policy meeting at the end of October today at 1:00 pm CST.  

  • Some analysts expect US Feds may raise rates in December  

OPEC’s basket price, the average cost of its members oil , is now at $43.29 per barrel , lowest level in about six years.

Weekly API energy inventory report came out yesterday afternoon

  • Crude a draw of 500,000 barrels , expecting a build of 1.9 million barrels
  • Gasoline a build of 200,000 barrels
  • Distillates a draw of 1.5 million barrels , expecting a draw of 500,000 barrels

China grain markets closes – soybeans up 11, corn up 12, meal up 5, palm oil down 4, and bean oil up 20.

Malaysian palm oil market closes up 25

Felda CEO said palm oil production in 2016 could fall by 1-3% due to El Nino

Based on a Reuters survey Indonesia’s October palm oil output estimated at 3.01 MMT vs. 3.1 MMT in September

Based on a Reuters survey Indonesia’s October palm oil exports estimated at 2.213 MMT vs. 2.235 MMT in September

Reports of good export demand for US soybeans.

South Korea MFG seeks 60,000 tons of US , China , or South American origin soymeal for June shipment

Colombia seeking wheat.

Colombia seeking US corn for February shipment yesterday

Japan seeking US corn for February shipment yesterday

China sold only 2,000 tons of wheat at this week’s wheat auction. China offered 842,000 tons.

Rumors / talk this week that China may start auctioning rapeseed oil from reserves.

Some analysts estimated China’s November soybean imports at 7.2-8.0 MMT vs. 5.53 MMT in October.

CNGOIC estimated China’s ‘15/16 corn surplus at 52.0 MMT vs. previous estimate of 55.0 MMT

Egypt’s GASC said wheat stockpiles sufficient until the end of April 2016.

UkrAgroConsult said as of November 17th Ukraine farmers planted winter grain crops on 6.61 million hectares (89% of total area) vs. 7.59 million hectares a year ago

French Farm Ministry estimated 2015 France soft wheat crop at 41.0 MMT , unchanged from previous estimate

French Farm Ministry estimated France 2015 corn crop at 13.15 MMT , vs. previous estimate of 13.1 MMT

Japan receives no offers for regular feed wheat and barley SBS tender

Japan seeks 120,000 tons of feed wheat and 200,000 tons of feed barley via SBS tender for Jan-Feb shipment

Russia’s government decided to introduce a ban on food imports from Ukraine starting January 1st because Kiev joined Western sanctions over Moscow

Good rains fell in dry areas in the Black Sea region wheat areas , with more rains in the forecast

Improved wheat crop weather in the US

Poor export demand for US wheat.

Improved crop weather in Australia

Receipt Registrations as of yesterday afternoon: – no changes

  • Wheat = 341
  • Oats = 13
  • Corn = 36
  • Ethanol = 0
  • DDGs = 0
  • Beans = 189
  • Bean oil = 3,024
  • Soymeal = 0
  • Rice = 2,132
  • KC wheat = 223
  • Minneapolis wheat =  602

Moving averages:

  • Jan bean 20 day 874 ¼
  • Jan bean 50 day 883 ¼
  • Dec corn 20 day 372
  • Dec wheat 20 day 504 ½
  • Dec wheat 50 day 503
  • Dec Minneapolis wheat 20 day 511 ½
  • Dec soy meal 20 day 297.60
  • Dec bean oil 20 day 2784
  • Dec bean oil 50 day 2777

Open interest as of yesterday’s close:

  • Total corn –  1,404,229 open, down 15,183
  • Total soybeans – 679,394 open , up 2,307
  • Total soymeal – 426,913 open, up 1,223
  • Total bean oil –  455,539 open , up 948
  • Total wheat – 394,016 open, up 1,756
  • Total KC wheat – 202,943 open, down 1,708

Upcoming reports/events:

  • Weekly DOE energy inventory report comes out today at 930 am CST. Expecting

o   Crude oil expecting a build of 2.0 million barrels

o   Gas expecting a draw of 1.5 million barrels

o   Distillates expecting a draw of 500,000 barrels

  • Weekly US ethanol plant production report comes out today at 930 am CST
  • Weekly US jobless claims report comes out tomorrow at 730 am CST
  • Weekly US export sales report comes out tomorrow at 730 am CST
  • Weekly EIA Nat Gas storage report comes out on Thursday at 930 am CST , expecting +22 BCF
  • Surveyors SGS and Intertek Agri Services will come out on Friday with their Malaysian Nov 1-20th palm oil export estimates
  • December options expire on Friday. Grain options expire at 1:20 pm CST
  • Argentina’s runoff presidential elections takes place on Sunday.

o   Analysts / traders are expecting Macri to win election

o   Expectations that new president will lower grain and soybean export taxes when they take office on December 10th

  • See attachment for next week’s holiday trading hours schedule.

o   US grain markets will trade normal day session hours on Wednesday November 25th

o   US grain overnight markets will not open on Wednesday night.

o   US grain markets will be closed for the day and night session on Thursday November 26th (Thanksgiving).

o   US grain markets reopen on Friday November 27th at 830 am CST , but will close early at 12:05 pm CST .

  • US EPA reaffirms plan to finalize biofuels plan by the end of November
  • ABARES come out on Tuesday December 1st with their Australian crop estimate updates
  • OPEC to meet in early December
  • Estimated commodity index rebalances for January 2016 . Roll will be January 8-14th.

o   Estimates by Morgan Stanley

  • Feeder Cattle to buy 1,996 contracts
  • Lean Hogs to buy 10,441 contracts
  • Coffee to buy 7,192 contracts
  • Sugar to sell 26,993 contracts
  • Nickel to buy 7,022 contracts
  • Copper to buy 4,845 contracts
  • Cotton to sell 4,652 contracts
  • Zinc to buy 4,934 contracts
  • Gasoil to sell 11,751 contracts
  • KC wheat to buy 3,150 contracts
  • RBOB to sell 4,618 contracts
  • Gold to sell 5,854 contracts
  • Bean oil to buy 5,075 contracts
  • Silver to sell 1,982 contracts
  • Soybean meal to buy 4,176 contracts
  • Corn to sell 11,943 contracts
  • Live Cattle to buy 2,218 contracts
  • Heating Oil to sell 3,097 contracts
  • Soybeans to buy 5,017 contracts
  • Crude oil to buy 12,857 contracts
  • Aluminum to buy 5,783 contracts
  • Brent Oil to sell 12,749 contracts
  • Natural Gas to buy 4,355 contracts
  • Cocoa to buy 356 contracts
  • Lead to buy 161 contracts
  • Wheat to sell 14 contracts

Data sources: Dow Jones , Bloomberg, Reuters , DTN news, barchart.com, CME Group and NYSE