News From The Grain Floor 11/17/15

Overnight closes

  • SF up 3 ¼ at 862 ¾
  • CZ up 2 ¼ at 362 ¼
  • WZ down 1 ¾ at 492 ¼
  • KC WZ down a ¼ at 467 ½
  • MWZ down 1 ½ at 503 ¼
  • SMZ up .20 at 289.00
  • BOZ up 16 at 2745

Overnight volume

  • SF 12,194
  • CZ 13,030
  • WZ 3,316
  • KC WZ 2,400
  • MWZ 287
  • SMZ 6,017
  • BOZ 9,093

Overnight option volume

  • Corn 1,606
  • Wheat 653
  • Beans 4,169
  • Meal 78
  • Bean oil 32

Total EOO’s cleared from previous session

Contract Year Month

Product

P/C

Strike Price

Ex Pit Volume – CME Group

201603

CORN OPTIONS

P

380

77

201603

CORN OPTIONS

P

390

22

201603

CORN OPTIONS

P

370

18

201603

SOYBEAN OPTIONS

P

880

2

201603

CHICAGO SRW WHEAT OPTIONS

C

480

2

Funds/COT

 

COT

COT

COT

 

 

 

 

Current

COT Record

 

COT Record

 

 

3-Nov

10-Nov

to COT

11-Nov

12-Nov

13-Nov

16-Nov

Estimate

Long

 

Short

 

Corn

-29731

-105469

-75738

10000

-2000

-7000

3000

-101469

9/28/2010

372756

-240854

10/29/2013

Wheat

-65726

-65209

517

4000

3000

-2000

0

-60209

10/24/2006

30146

-110792

5/5/2015

Soybeans

-50,299

-78,894

-28595

3000

2000

-3000

3000

-73,894

5/1/2012

224822

-92991

5/26/2015

Soymeal

5983

-5501

-11484

2000

-2000

-3000

0

-8501

11/11/2014

70115

-22711

4/14/2015

Soyoil

1107

-11124

-12231

-2000

2000

-3000

3000

-11124

4/10/2007

81193

-80562

1/21/2014

South American Weather

In Brazil, 60% of soybeans were planted as of last Friday…that is 11% behind the 5 year average. Yesterday, thunder storms took place in much of Argentina, Brazil and Paraguay…heat was noted in northern Brazil but it was not extreme. Coming back to Brazil, only northeast areas and Minas Gerais are too dry with areas of wetness from South into Southeast. Rains are forecasted for much of the next 10 days which will develop wetness for the remaining areas that need to be planted.

See maps below.

News

Dec Euro at 1.0658 down .0023

USD – BRL at 3.7943 down .0255 

Nikkei closes up 1.22%

Hang Seng closes up 1.2%

Shanghai Index closes down .1%

China grain markets closes – soybeans down 58, corn down 12, meal down 22, palm oil up 2, bean oil up 6

Malaysian palm oil market closes down 7

Based on a Reuters poll, palm oil prices seen finishing the year around 2,300 ringgit per ton vs. 2,266 ringgit per ton at the end of 2014

Japan seeks 114,491 tons of food wheat for Feb shipment. Breakdown

  • 14,500 tons of US western white wheat
  • 35,910 tons of US HRW wheat
  • 30,380 tons of dark northern spring US wheat
  • 34,151 tons of Canadian western red spring wheat

Jordan seeks 100,000 tons of optional origin wheat for Feb-March shipment

Jordan seeks 100,000 tons of optional origin barley for April shipment

South Korea Samyang  canceled tender to buy 35,000 US wheat for March-April shipment due to high prices

Ukraine State Statistics Agency said Ukraine’s November 1st grain stocks were at 31.7 MMT up 6% from a year ago

Beneficial rains and mild temperatures in the forecast for Russian and Ukrainian wheat belts.

Weekly US crop progress report from yesterday afternoon

Corn

  • Harvested 96% (as expected) vs. 93% a week ago and vs. 94% five year average

Winter wheat

  • Condition 52% good to excellent (as expected), up 1% from a week ago and vs. 60% a year ago
  • Planted 94% (expecting about 96% complete) vs. 92% a week ago and vs. 98% five year average
  • Emerged 87% vs. 80% a week ago and vs. 86% five year average

Cotton

  • Harvested 64% vs. 58% a week ago and vs. 74% five year average

Receipt Registrations as of yesterday afternoon:  

  • Wheat = 341
  • Oats = 13
  • Corn = 36
  • Ethanol = 0
  • DDGs = 0
  • Beans = 189

o   33 bean receipts canceled yesterday afternoon

  • Out of Cargill Burns Harbor IN
  • Bean oil = 3,024
  • Soymeal = 0
  • Rice = 2,132
  • KC wheat = 223
  • Minneapolis wheat =  602

Moving averages:

  • Dec wheat 20 day 505 ¼    
  • Dec wheat 50 day 502 ½    
  • Dec bean oil 20 day 2791
  • Dec bean oil 50 day 2776

Open interest as of yesterday’s close:

  • Total corn –  1,419,635 open , up 3,372
  • Total soybeans – 677,101 open, up 3,033
  • Total soymeal – 425,713 open, up 446
  • Total bean oil –  454,411 open, up 1,405
  • Total wheat –392,209 open, up 4,948
  • Total KC wheat – 204,859 open, down 1,326

Upcoming reports/events:

  • Weekly API energy inventory report comes out today at 330 pm CST.
  • Weekly DOE energy inventory report comes out tomorrow at 930 am CST
  • Weekly US ethanol plant production report comes out tomorrow at 930 am CST
  • Surveyors SGS and Intertek Agri Services will come out on Friday with their Malaysian Nov 1-20th palm oil export estimates
  • December options expire on Friday. Grain options expire at 1:20 pm CST
  • Argentina run-off presidential elections on Sunday November 22nd. No candidate was able to get 45% of the vote in the October 25th elections

o   Argentina farmers have been holding on to their grains and oilseeds , both candidates are promising to end wheat and corn export taxes and reduce the soybean export tax

  • US EPA reaffirms plan to finalize biofuels plan by the end of November
  • ABARES come out on Tuesday December 1st with their Australian crop estimate updates
  • OPEC to meet in early December
  • Estimated commodity index rebalances for January 2016 . Roll will be January 8-14th.

o   Estimates by Morgan Stanley

  • Feeder Cattle to buy 1,996 contracts
  • Lean Hogs to buy 10,441 contracts
  • Coffee to buy 7,192 contracts
  • Sugar to sell 26,993 contracts
  • Nickel to buy 7,022 contracts
  • Copper to buy 4,845 contracts
  • Cotton to sell 4,652 contracts
  • Zinc to buy 4,934 contracts
  • Gasoil to sell 11,751 contracts
  • KC wheat to buy 3,150 contracts
  • RBOB to sell 4,618 contracts
  • Gold to sell 5,854 contracts
  • Bean oil to buy 5,075 contracts
  • Silver to sell 1,982 contracts
  • Soybean meal to buy 4,176 contracts
  • Corn to sell 11,943 contracts
  • Live Cattle to buy 2,218 contracts
  • Heating Oil to sell 3,097 contracts
  • Soybeans to buy 5,017 contracts
  • Crude oil to buy 12,857 contracts
  • Aluminum to buy 5,783 contracts
  • Brent Oil to sell 12,749 contracts
  • Natural Gas to buy 4,355 contracts
  • Cocoa to buy 356 contracts
  • Lead to buy 161 contracts
  • Wheat to sell 14 contracts

Data sources: Dow Jones , Bloomberg, Reuters , DTN news, barchart.com, CME Group and NYSE