News From The Grain Floor 11/16/15

USDA announced 1.44 million tons of US corn sold to Mexico

  • 952,500 tons for ‘15/16 shipment
  • 487,680 tons for ‘16/17 shipment

USDA announced 180,000 US beans sold to China for ‘15/16 shipment

NOPA October crush report comes out today at 11 am CST . Estimates for NOPA are

  • Crush average estimate is 161.002 MB , range of estimates are 158.5-164.8 MB. NOPA’s September soybean crush was 126.704 MB and October 2014 soybean crush was 157.960 MB.
  • Bean oil stocks average estimate is 1.444 billion pounds , range of estimates are 1.409-1.467 billion pounds. NOPA’s September bean oil stocks were 1.355 billion pounds and October 2014 bean oil stocks were 966.062 million pounds
  • No estimates are given for meal exports. NOPA’s September meal exports were 502,320 tons and October 2014 soymeal exports were 707,934 tons

Overnight closes

  • SF down 2 ½ at 852 ¾
  • CZ up a ½ at 358 ¾
  • WZ down 3 ¾ at 492
  • KC WZ down 2 ¼ at 463 ¼
  • MWZ down 1 ¼ at 503
  • SMZ down .30 at 288.50
  • BOZ down 15 at 268/9 

Overnight volume

  • SF 9,080
  • CZ 9,146
  • WZ 4,076
  • KC WZ 1,957
  • MWZ 437
  • SMZ 3,423
  • BOZ 7,317

Overnight option volume

  • Corn 3,695
  • Wheat 540
  • Beans 2,190
  • Meal 852
  • Bean oil 446

Total EOO’s cleared from previous session

Contract Year Month

Product

P/C

Strike Price

Ex Pit Volume – CME Group

201512

SOYBEAN MEAL OPTIONS

P

290

1,000

201512

CORN OPTIONS

P

410

673

201512

CORN OPTIONS

C

500

500

201512

CORN OPTIONS

C

600

500

201512

CORN OPTIONS

P

400

292

201603

CORN OPTIONS

P

390

154

201603

CORN OPTIONS

P

380

145

201512

CORN OPTIONS

P

420

124

201603

CORN OPTIONS

P

370

98

201512

CHICAGO SRW WHEAT OPTIONS

P

530

96

201512

CHICAGO SRW WHEAT OPTIONS

P

520

27

201603

CORN OPTIONS

C

390

26

201603

SOYBEAN OPTIONS

P

880

2

Funds- Weekly COT supplemental report was delayed Friday, comes out today at 230 pm CST , with large spec positions as of November 10th.

 

COT

COT

COT

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Current

 

27-Oct

3-Nov

to COT

4-Nov

5-Nov

6-Nov

9-Nov

10-Nov

11-Nov

12-Nov

13-Nov

Estimate

Corn

-24800

-29731

-4931

-1000

-10000

-5000

-11000

-20000

10000

-2000

-7000

-75731

Wheat

-75385

-65726

9659

9000

0

-2000

-12000

-12000

4000

3000

-2000

-77726

Soybeans

-26295

-50,299

-24004

3000

-12000

4000

0

-10000

3000

2000

-3000

-63,299

Soymeal

16314

5983

-10331

1000

-6000

-1000

0

-5000

2000

-2000

-3000

-8017

Soy oil

7141

1107

-6034

4000

-8000

3000

-2000

-6000

-2000

2000

-3000

-10893

Weather

Over the past week end, rains covered Brazil and Paraguay but it was not a well organized system. Heat took place in Center-West Brazil but temperatures were not as hot as last week. Most growing areas of South America have limited dryness concerns except Northeast Brazil and areas in Minas Gerais where it has been dry. Some areas of wetness exist (notably is west-central Rio Grande do Sul). For the coming 10 days, a wet pattern dominates most areas in Brazil/Paraguay…as a result soil moisture becomes adequate to ample which could slow some plantings and create some localized flooding. For Argentina, two systems will take place over the next week which will turn temperatures below normal. Conditions in general in Argentina are favorable and this should continue with no major slowing of planting and harvesting seen.

See maps below.

News

Dec Euro at

USD – BRL at

Nikkei closes down 1.04%

  • Japan’s GDP -.8% , expecting -.2%

Hang Seng closes down 1.7%

Shanghai Index closes up .7%

  • China said late Friday that it would double margin requirements to 100% from 50% currently

G20 summit started yesterday , ends today.

China grain markets closes – soybeans down 57, corn down 1, meal down 22, palm oil down 28, and bean oil down 22

Malaysian palm oil market closes down 43

SGS estimated Malaysia’s Nov 1-15 palm oil exports at 703,708 tons up 1.8% from a month ago

Intertek estimated Malaysia’s Nov 1-15 palm oil exports at 724,992 tons up 3.9% from a month ago

Malaysia will keep palm oil export tax at 0% in December

South Korea Daehan bought 29,400 tons of Canadian wheat for Feb shipment

Solvent Extractors Association of India said India imported 14.61 MMT (record) veg oils up 23.6% from ‘14/15

Solvent Extractors Association of India said India imported 3.0 MMT of bean oil in ‘14/15 vs. 1.95 MMT a year ago

Solvent Extractors Association of India said India imported 1.65 MMT (record) tons of veg oils in October up 34% from a year ago

UkrAgroConsult estimated Ukraine’s 2016 wheat crop at 17.5 MMT vs. previous estimate of 19.0 MMT, due to poor crop conditions

Deliveries

  • Beans 32 with the date current

o   ADM issued 32

  • Rice 42 with the date current

Receipt Registrations as of Friday afternoon:  

  • Wheat = 341

o   22 wheat receipts were canceled yesterday afternoon

  • 11 out of Bunge Blytheville, AR
  • 11 out of Cargill Hickman, KY
  • Oats = 13
  • Corn = 36
  • Ethanol = 0
  • DDGs = 0
  • Beans = 222
  • Bean oil = 3,024
  • Soymeal = 0
  • Rice = 2,132
  • KC wheat = 223
  • Minneapolis wheat =  602

Upcoming reports/events:

  • Weekly US export inspections report comes out today at 10 am CST
  • Weekly COT report comes out today at 230 pm CST , due to US holiday
  • Weekly US crop progress report comes out today at 3 pm CST
  • Weekly API energy inventory report comes out tomorrow at 330 pm CST.
  • December options expire on Friday November 20th . Grain options expire at 1:20 pm CST
  • Argentina run-off presidential elections on Sunday November 22nd. No candidate was able to get 45% of the vote in the October 25th elections

o   Argentina farmers have been holding on to their grains and oilseeds , both candidates are promising to end wheat and corn export taxes and reduce the soybean export tax

  • US EPA reaffirms plan to finalize biofuels plan by the end of November
  • ABARES come out on Tuesday December 1st with their Australian crop estimate updates
  • OPEC to meet in early December
  • Estimated commodity index rebalances for January 2016 . Roll will be January 8-14th.

o   Estimates by Morgan Stanley

  • Feeder Cattle to buy 1,996 contracts
  • Lean Hogs to buy 10,441 contracts
  • Coffee to buy 7,192 contracts
  • Sugar to sell 26,993 contracts
  • Nickel to buy 7,022 contracts
  • Copper to buy 4,845 contracts
  • Cotton to sell 4,652 contracts
  • Zinc to buy 4,934 contracts
  • Gasoil to sell 11,751 contracts
  • KC wheat to buy 3,150 contracts
  • RBOB to sell 4,618 contracts
  • Gold to sell 5,854 contracts
  • Bean oil to buy 5,075 contracts
  • Silver to sell 1,982 contracts
  • Soybean meal to buy 4,176 contracts
  • Corn to sell 11,943 contracts
  • Live Cattle to buy 2,218 contracts
  • Heating Oil to sell 3,097 contracts
  • Soybeans to buy 5,017 contracts
  • Crude oil to buy 12,857 contracts
  • Aluminum to buy 5,783 contracts
  • Brent Oil to sell 12,749 contracts
  • Natural Gas to buy 4,355 contracts
  • Cocoa to buy 356 contracts
  • Lead to buy 161 contracts
  • Wheat to sell 14 contracts

Data sources: Dow Jones , Bloomberg, Reuters , DTN news, barchart.com, CME Group and NYSE