News From The Grain Floor 11/13/15

USDA announced 116,000 tons of US sorghum sold to unknown for ‘15/16 shipment

Informa comes out today at 1030 am CST with their updated US 2016 acreage estimates. Previous estimates from Informa were

  • 2016 US corn planted area previously estimated at 90.8 million acres
  • 2016 US soybean planted area previously estimated at 83.9 million acres
  • 2016 US all wheat planted area previously estimated at 54.0 million acres

November futures expire today at 12:00 pm CST.

Overnight closes

  • SF down 3 ¼ at 859 ¾
  • CZ unchanged at 362
  • WZ up ¾ at 498 ¾
  • KC WZ up 1 at 464 ¾
  • MWZ up a ½ at 505 ¾
  • SMZ down .40 at 291.00
  • BOZ down 15 at 2729

Overnight volume

  • SF 11,413
  • CZ 12,005
  • WZ 4,457
  • KC WZ 1,658
  • MWZ 344
  • SMZ 4,184
  • BOZ 3,849

Overnight option volume

  • Corn 2,103
  • Wheat 277
  • Beans 4,268
  • Meal 76
  • Bean oil 157

Total EOO’s cleared from previous session

Contract Year Month

Product Desc

P/C Ind

Strike Price

Ex Pit Volume – CME Group

201603

CORN OPTIONS

P

380

1,110

201603

CORN OPTIONS

P

390

390

201603

CORN OPTIONS

P

370

85

201605

SOYBEAN OPTIONS

C

860

25

201605

SOYBEAN OPTIONS

P

860

25

201603

SOYBEAN OPTIONS

P

880

1

Funds

 

COT

COT

COT

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Current

 

27-Oct

3-Nov

to COT

4-Nov

5-Nov

6-Nov

9-Nov

10-Nov

11-Nov

12-Nov

Estimate

Corn

-24800

-29731

-4931

-1000

-10000

-5000

-11000

-20000

10000

-2000

-68731

Wheat

-75385

-65726

9659

9000

0

-2000

-12000

-12000

4000

3000

-75726

Soybeans

-26295

-50,299

-24004

3000

-12000

4000

0

-10000

3000

2000

-60,299

Soymeal

16314

5983

-10331

1000

-6000

-1000

0

-5000

2000

-2000

-5017

Soyoil

7141

1107

-6034

4000

-8000

3000

-2000

-6000

-2000

2000

-7893

Weather

In Brazil, Mato Grosso will have upper-level high pressure in the coming week and that will result in dry and hot weather. To the south and east, some thunderstorms will continue covering most other key growing areas of Brazil and Paraguay. Near to above normal rainfall is expected with Rio Grande Do Sul the wettest (floodings possible). Brazilian conditions are overall good: plantings is catching up in Goias and Mato Grosso…rain will eventually be needed in Mato Grosso given the dry/hot weather nearby forecast. In Argentina, seasonable weather dominates into early next week with mostly dry conditions. This will help growth and plantings following the most recent rains. See maps below.

News

Dec Euro at 1.0740 down .0060

USD – BRL at 3.7960 up .0249

Nikkei closes down .51% , up 1.7% on week

Hang Seng closes down 2.2% , down 2.1% on week

Shanghai Index closes down 1.4% , down .3% on week

China grain markets closes – soybeans up 20, corn up 12, meal down 17, palm oil down 6, and bean oil up 24

Malaysian palm oil market closes down 46

Hearing China bought a few cargoes of US beans off the PNW for December shipment Wednesday-Thursday

Hearing China bought 3 cargoes of Canadian canola this week for Jan-Feb shipment  

South Korea KFA bought 60,000 tons of South American origin corn for April shipment

South Korea seeks 59,800 tons of US or Canadian wheat for Feb-April shipment

Ukraine Ag Min said as of today Ukrainian farmers have harvested 58.2 MMT of grain with an average yield of 4.09 TPH , a year ago average grain yield was 4.28 TPH.

FranceAgriMer said as of November 9th French soft wheat planting was 95% complete vs. 90% a week ago

Morocco Ag Min said ‘15/16 final cereal production was 11.5 MMT up 69% from ‘14/15

USDA attaché in Morocco estimated ‘15/16 wheat exports at 2.8 MMT

From Brazilian contact yesterday, talk Brazilian traders are working to buy back some shorts because it is too hot and dry in Mato Grosso , some replanting will be necessary.

  • Beneficial rains are expected in Brazil’s main soybean growing areas next week

Weekly US export sales report

  • Wheat ‘15/16 226,670 tons ‘16/17 10,000 tons (expecting 150-350,000 tons)
  • Corn ‘15/16 618,600 tons ‘16/17 22,000 tons (expecting 450-650,000 tons)
  • Beans ‘15/16 1.297 million tons ‘16/17 22,800 tons (expecting 600,000-1.0 million tons)
  • Meal ‘15/16 208,200 tons ‘16/17 6,900 tons (expecting 150-350,000 tons)
  • Bean oil ‘15/16 28,900 tons (expecting 10-40,000 tons)

Export highlights

  • Wheat – Net sales of 226,670 metric tons for delivery in marketing year 2015/2016 were up noticeably from the previous week, but down 38 percent from the prior 4-week average.  Increases were reported for the Philippines (66,500 MT), Mexico (42,900 MT), Israel (29,100 MT), Guatemala (26,400 MT, including 25,500 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 900 MT), and Algeria (19,700 MT, including 21,000 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 1,300 MT).  Reductions were reported for Italy (3,500 MT) and the Leeward Windward Islands (300 MT).  Net sales of 10,000 MT for 2016/2017 were reported for South Korea.  Exports of 239,300 MT were up 35 percent from the previous week, but down12 percent from the prior 4-week average.  The primary destinations were Nigeria (56,400 MT), Mexico (50,800 MT), Guatemala (35,400 MT), Jamaica (21,300 MT), and Algeria (19,700 MT).
  • Corn – Net sales of 618,600 MT for 2015/2016 were up 11 percent from the previous week and 17 percent from the prior 4-week average.  Increases were reported for unknown destinations (246,500 MT), Mexico (101,600 MT), Japan (77,400 MT, including 23,700 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 35,000 MT), Colombia (45,400 MT), and Peru (26,600 MT).  Net sales of 22,000 MT for 2016/2017 were reported for El Salvador (12,000 MT) and Nicaragua (10,000 MT).  Exports of 270,900 MT were down 45 percent from the previous week and 44 percent from the prior 4-week average
  • Beans – Net sales of 1,297,000 MT for 2015/2016 were up 98 percent from the previous week, but down 14 percent from the prior 4-week average.  Increases were reported for China (1,166,200 MT, including 726,500 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 186,800 MT), Indonesia (110,200 MT, including 96,700 MT switched from unknown destinations), Germany (88,600 MT, previously reported as the Netherlands), the United Kingdom (67,400 MT, including 66,000 MT switched from China), Russia (63,800 MT, including 30,000 MT switched from unknown destinations), and Mexico (55,200 MT).  Reductions were reported for unknown destinations (392,500 MT).  Net sales of 22,800 MT for 2016/2017 were reported for Japan.  Exports of 2,485,700 MT were up 14 percent from the previous week and from the prior 4-week average.  The primary destinations were China (1,935,300 MT), Mexico (120,800 MT), Indonesia (117,000 MT), Germany (88,600 MT, previously reported as the Netherlands), and the United Kingdom (67,400 MT).
  • Meal – Net sales of 208,200 MT for 2015/2016 were down 15 percent from the previous week.  Increases were reported for Mexico (68,200 MT), Egypt (27,500 MT), unknown destinations (24,800 MT), the United Kingdom (15,000 MT), Taiwan (12,000 MT), and the Philippines (9,300 MT).  Reductions were reported for Panama (400 MT), Trinidad (300 MT), and Jamaica (100 MT).  Net sales of 6,900 MT for 2016/2017 were for Nicaragua (5,000 MT) and Canada (1,900 MT).  Exports of 216,900 MT were primarily to Mexico (72,100 MT), the Philippines (48,400 MT), Ecuador (31,200 MT), the Dominican Republic (22,100 MT), and Canada (16,400 MT).
  • Bean oil –  Net sales of 28,900 MT for 2015/2016 were down 20 percent from the previous week.  Increases were reported for unknown destinations (19,000 MT), Colombia (9,000 MT), South Korea (1,000 MT, switched from unknown destinations), and Mexico (100 MT).  Reductions were reported for Morocco (300 MT) and Canada (100 MT).  Exports of 28,700 MT were primarily to Morocco (17,700 MT), Guatemala (7,000 MT), Mexico (2,700 MT), and South Korea (1,000 MT).

Deliveries

  • Rice 11 with the date current

Receipt Registrations as of yesterday afternoon:  

  • Wheat = 363

o   121 wheat receipts were canceled yesterday afternoon

  • Out of Bunge Finley, TN
  • Oats = 13
  • Corn = 36
  • Ethanol = 0
  • DDGs = 0
  • Beans = 222
  • Bean oil = 3,024
  • Soymeal = 0
  • Rice = 2,132

o   411 rice receipts were canceled yesterday afternoon

  • Out of Erwin-Keith Inc. Wynne, AR
  • KC wheat = 223
  • Minneapolis wheat =  602

Moving averages:

  • Dec wheat 20 day 504 ½    
  • Dec wheat 50 day 501 ½    
  • Dec Minneapolis wheat 20 day 512 ¼   
  • Dec bean oil 20 day 2802 
  • Dec bean oil 50 day 2775

Open interest as of yesterday’s close:

  • Total corn –  1,420,161 open, up 7,245
  • Total soybeans – 670,920 open, down 2,987
  • Total soymeal – 425,484 open, up 2,959
  • Total bean oil – 452,218 open, up 191
  • Total wheat –384,606 open , up 3,515
  • Total KC wheat – 208,432 open, up 437

Upcoming reports/events:

  • Weekly Nat Gas storage report will come out today at 930 am CST, expecting +52 BCF
  • G20 summit in Antalya Turkey will take place on Sunday and Monday
  • Surveyors SGS and Intertek to estimate Malaysia’s Nov 1-15th palm oil exports on Monday
  • Weekly US export inspections report comes out on Monday at 10 am CST
  • NOPA October crush report comes out on Monday at 11 am CST . Estimates for NOPA are

o   Crush average estimate is 161.002 MB , range of estimates are 158.5-164.8 MB. NOPA’s September soybean crush was 126.704 MB and October 2014 soybean crush was 157.960 MB.

o   Bean oil stocks average estimate is 1.444 billion pounds , range of estimates are 1.409-1.467 billion pounds. NOPA’s September bean oil stocks were 1.355 billion pounds and October 2014 bean oil stocks were 966.062 million pounds

o   No estimates are given for meal exports. NOPA’s September meal exports were 502,320 tons and October 2014 soymeal exports were 707,934 tons

  • Weekly COT report comes out on Monday at 230 pm CST , due to US holiday
  • Weekly US crop progress report comes out on Monday at 3 pm CST
  • December options expire on Friday November 20th . Grain options expire at 1:20 pm CST
  • Argentina run-off presidential elections on Sunday November 22nd. No candidate was able to get 45% of the vote in the October 25th elections

o   Argentina farmers have been holding on to their grains and oilseeds , both candidates are promising to end wheat and corn export taxes and reduce the soybean export tax

  • US EPA reaffirms plan to finalize biofuels plan by the end of November
  • ABARES come out on Tuesday December 1st with their Australian crop estimate updates
  • OPEC to meet in early December
  • Estimated commodity index rebalances for January 2016 . Roll will be January 8-14th.

o   Estimates by Morgan Stanley

  • Feeder Cattle to buy 1,996 contracts
  • Lean Hogs to buy 10,441 contracts
  • Coffee to buy 7,192 contracts
  • Sugar to sell 26,993 contracts
  • Nickel to buy 7,022 contracts
  • Copper to buy 4,845 contracts
  • Cotton to sell 4,652 contracts
  • Zinc to buy 4,934 contracts
  • Gasoil to sell 11,751 contracts
  • KC wheat to buy 3,150 contracts
  • RBOB to sell 4,618 contracts
  • Gold to sell 5,854 contracts
  • Bean oil to buy 5,075 contracts
  • Silver to sell 1,982 contracts
  • Soybean meal to buy 4,176 contracts
  • Corn to sell 11,943 contracts
  • Live Cattle to buy 2,218 contracts
  • Heating Oil to sell 3,097 contracts
  • Soybeans to buy 5,017 contracts
  • Crude oil to buy 12,857 contracts
  • Aluminum to buy 5,783 contracts
  • Brent Oil to sell 12,749 contracts
  • Natural Gas to buy 4,355 contracts
  • Cocoa to buy 356 contracts
  • Lead to buy 161 contracts
  • Wheat to sell 14 contracts

Data sources: Dow Jones , Bloomberg, Reuters , DTN news, barchart.com, CME Group and NYSE