News From The Grain Floor 11/12/15

USDA announced 300,000 tons of US beans sold to China for ‘15/16 shipment

Overnight closes

  • SF down 4 ¼ at 856 ½
  • CZ down 1 ¾ at 360 ½
  • WZ unchanged at 494 ¾
  • KC WZ up a ¼ at 464 ½
  • MWZ up 1 at 502 ¾
  • SMZ down 1.70 at 292.30
  • BOZ down 16 at 2702

Overnight volume

  • SF 8,843
  • CZ 23,345
  • WZ 6,681
  • KC WZ 3,247
  • MWZ 745
  • SMZ 4,523
  • BOZ 7,923

Overnight option volume

  • Corn 3,605
  • Wheat 778
  • Beans 5,508
  • Meal 82
  • Bean oil 119

Total EOO’s cleared from previous session

Contract Year Month

Product Desc

P/C Ind

Strike Price

Ex Pit Volume – CME Group

201603

CORN OPTIONS

P

390

112

201603

CORN OPTIONS

P

380

22

201605

CORN OPTIONS

P

390

14

201603

SOYBEAN OPTIONS

P

880

6

Funds

 

COT

COT

COT

 

 

 

 

 

 

Current

 

27-Oct

3-Nov

to COT

4-Nov

5-Nov

6-Nov

9-Nov

10-Nov

11-Nov

Estimate

Corn

-24800

-29731

-4931

-1000

-10000

-5000

-11000

-20000

10000

-66731

Wheat

-75385

-65726

9659

9000

0

-2000

-12000

-12000

4000

-78726

Soybeans

-26295

-50,299

-24004

3000

-12000

4000

0

-10000

3000

-62299

Soymeal

16314

5983

-10331

1000

-6000

-1000

0

-5000

2000

-3017

Soyoil

7141

1107

-6034

4000

-8000

3000

-2000

-6000

-2000

-9893

News

Dec Euro at 1.0731 down .0003

USD – BRL at 3.8196 up .0581

India on holiday , returns tomorrow

Nikkei closes up .03% , closes higher for the seventh straight day.  

Hang Seng closes up 2.4% , best performance in five weeks

Shanghai Index closes down .5%

ECB president Draghi made it seem that further policy easing is coming next month

  • Draghi said “At our December monetary policy meeting, we will re-examine the degree of monetary policy accommodation”

OPEC highlights

  • OPEC’s oil output falls on Iraqi export woes
  • OPEC says its crude production fell by 256,500 B/D in October to 31.382 B/D
  • OPEC’s October production lowest since June
  • OPEC’s oil output driven down by Iraqi drop of 195,400 B/D
  • Saudi Arabia’s output falls 72,000 B/D to 10.125 B/D
  • Kuwait output falls 44,500 B/D to 2.688M B/D
  • Demand for OPEC crude stands at 29.6 M B/D this year , lower than current output
  • OPEC maintains world oil demand growth forecast of 1.25 B/D in 2016
  • OPEC still sees non-OPEC oil output contracting by .13M B/D in 2016

Weekly US jobless claims report came out this morning unchanged at 276,000 , expecting 270,000

China grain markets closes – soybeans up 40, corn up 18, meal up 10, palm oil up 2, and bean oil down 26

Malaysian palm oil market closes up 3

Dorab Mistry said global palm oil output in 2016 will rise by 1.5 MMT vs. previous expectations that 2016 output would rise by 2.5 MMT

Dorab Mistry expects global biodiesel demand will grow by 1.5 MMT in ‘15/16

Dorab Mistry expects soybean prices to remain below $9 per bushel

Southern Peninsula Palm Oil Millers Association said Malaysia’s November 1-10 palm oil production was down 30% from a month ago

Golden Agri-Resources expects Indonesia’s palm oil production to fall 10% in 2016, due to El Nino.

  • Estimated 2016 Indonesia palm oil output at 30.0 MMT vs. 2015 estimate of 33.0 MMT

Talk yesterday South Korea booked several US corn cargoes off the PNW . Reports today

  • South Korea KOCOPIA bought 55,000 tons of US corn for March shipment
  • South Korea NOFI bought 63,000 tons of US corn for April shipment

Japan bought 119,415 tons of food wheat for February shipment. Breakdown

  • 23,084 tons of US western white wheat
  • 11,950 tons of US HRW wheat
  • 32,021 tons of US dark northern spring wheat
  • 32,470 tons of Canadian western red spring wheat
  • 19,890 tons of Australian white wheat

Rosario’s Grains Exchange estimated Argentina’s ‘15/16 corn crop at 20.2 MMT down 22% from ‘14/15

Rosario’s Grains Exchange estimated Argentina’s ‘15/16 wheat crop at 9.4 MMT vs. previous estimate of 9.3 MMT

Analysts expecting China’s November bean imports could reach 6.5-7.0 MMT

USDA attaché in China estimated China’s ‘15/16 corn ending stocks at 117 MMT

USDA attaché in China estimated China’s ‘15/16 corn crop at a record high of 225 MMT

USDA attaché in China estimated China’s ‘15/16 wheat crop at a record high of 130 MMT

FranceAgriMer estimated France’s ‘15/16 soft wheat stocks at 5.2 MMT vs. previous estimate of 4.8 MMT

Today is the last day of the Goldman Sachs / UBS roll. They are rolling long December corn and wheat positions to March.

  • GS / UBS has already rolled their long December bean oil and soy meal positions to January during the November soybean roll.

Deliveries

  • Rice – 14 with the date at 11-10-15

Receipt Registrations as of yesterday afternoon:  

  • Wheat = 484
  • Oats = 13
  • Corn = 36
  • Ethanol = 0
  • DDGs = 0
  • Beans = 222
  • Bean oil = 3,024
  • Soymeal = 0
  • Rice = 2,543
  • KC wheat = 223
  • Minneapolis wheat =  602

o   72 Minneapolis wheat receipts were canceled yesterday afternoon

Moving averages:

  • Dec wheat 20 day 504 ½    
  • Dec wheat 50 day 501 ¼   
  • Dec Minneapolis wheat 20 day 512 ½   
  • Dec bean oil 50 day 2774

Open interest as of yesterday’s close:

  • Total corn –   1,413,627 open , up 15,362
  • Total soybeans – 673,955 open , up 5,335
  • Total soymeal – 422,637 open , up 43
  • Total bean oil – 452,140 open , down 5,396
  • Total wheat – 381,179 open, up 1,438
  • Total KC wheat – 207,716 open , up 1,889

Upcoming reports/events:

  • Weekly DOE energy inventory report will come out today at 10 am CST . Expecting

o   Crude a build of 1.3 million barrels

o   Gas a draw of 1.0 million barrels

o   Distillates a draw of 1.0 million barrels

  • Weekly US ethanol plant production report will come out today at 10 am CST
  • Weekly US export sales report comes out tomorrow at 730 am CST
  • Weekly Nat Gas storage report will come out tomorrow at 930 am CST, expecting +52 BCF
  • Informa comes out on Friday at 1030 am CST with their updated US 2016 acreage estimates. Previous estimates from Informa were

o   2016 US corn planted area previously estimated at 90.8 million acres

o   2016 US bean planted area previously estimated at 83.9 million acres

o   2016 US all wheat planted area previously estimated at 54.0 million acres

  • November beans and rice futures expire tomorrow at noon CST
  • Weekly COT report comes out tomorrow at 230 pm CST
  • G20 summit in Antalya Turkey will take place on Sunday and Monday
  • Surveyors SGS and Intertek to estimate Malaysia’s Nov 1-15th palm oil exports on Monday
  • NOPA October crush report comes out on Monday at 11 am CST
  • Argentina run-off presidential elections on Sunday November 22nd. No candidate was able to get 45% of the vote in the October 25th elections

o   Argentina farmers have been holding on to their grains and oilseeds , both candidates are promising to end wheat and corn export taxes and reduce the soybean export tax

  • US EPA reaffirms plan to finalize biofuels plan by the end of November
  • ABARES come out on Tuesday December 1st with their Australian crop estimate updates
  • OPEC to meet in early December
  • Estimated commodity index rebalances for January 2016 . Roll will be January 8-14th.

o   Estimates by Morgan Stanley

  • Feeder Cattle to buy 1,996 contracts
  • Lean Hogs to buy 10,441 contracts
  • Coffee to buy 7,192 contracts
  • Sugar to sell 26,993 contracts
  • Nickel to buy 7,022 contracts
  • Copper to buy 4,845 contracts
  • Cotton to sell 4,652 contracts
  • Zinc to buy 4,934 contracts
  • Gasoil to sell 11,751 contracts
  • KC wheat to buy 3,150 contracts
  • RBOB to sell 4,618 contracts
  • Gold to sell 5,854 contracts
  • Bean oil to buy 5,075 contracts
  • Silver to sell 1,982 contracts
  • Soybean meal to buy 4,176 contracts
  • Corn to sell 11,943 contracts
  • Live Cattle to buy 2,218 contracts
  • Heating Oil to sell 3,097 contracts
  • Soybeans to buy 5,017 contracts
  • Crude oil to buy 12,857 contracts
  • Aluminum to buy 5,783 contracts
  • Brent Oil to sell 12,749 contracts
  • Natural Gas to buy 4,355 contracts
  • Cocoa to buy 356 contracts
  • Lead to buy 161 contracts
  • Wheat to sell 14 contracts

Data sources: Dow Jones , Bloomberg, Reuters , DTN news, barchart.com, CME Group and NYSE