News From The Grain Floor 11/11/15

Veteran’s Day Holiday in US. US government and backs are closed. US grain markets are opened.

Egypt GASC is in for wheat again today for December shipment

  • Yesterday Egypt GASC bought 115,000 tons of Russian and Ukrainian wheat for December shipment
  • Egypt only receiving offers from France and Russia today.

Overnight closes

  • SF up 4 at 859 ½
  • CZ up 2 at 361
  • WZ up 5 ¾ at 496 ½
  • KC WZ up 3 ¾ at 464 ½
  • MWZ up 4 ½ at 502
  • SMZ up 1.70 at 293.90
  • BOZ down 1 at 2726 

Overnight volume

  • SF 15,240
  • CZ 26,149
  • WZ 9,205
  • KC WZ 2,055
  • MWZ 233
  • SMZ 5,094
  • BOZ 9,575

Overnight option volume

  • Corn 2,342
  • Wheat 438
  • Beans 6,075
  • Meal 118
  • Bean oil 20

Total EOO’s cleared from previous session

Contract Year Month

Product

P/C

Strike Price

Ex Pit Volume – CME Group

201512

CORN OPTIONS

P

410

419

201512

CORN OPTIONS

P

400

283

201512

CORN OPTIONS

P

420

206

201603

CORN OPTIONS

P

390

112

201512

CHICAGO SRW WHEAT OPTIONS

P

520

98

201512

CHICAGO SRW WHEAT OPTIONS

P

510

66

201512

CHICAGO SRW WHEAT OPTIONS

P

540

50

201512

CHICAGO SRW WHEAT OPTIONS

P

530

49

201512

CHICAGO SRW WHEAT OPTIONS

P

560

2

201603

CORN OPTIONS

P

370

1

Funds

 

COT

COT

COT

 

 

 

 

 

Current

 

27-Oct

3-Nov

to COT

4-Nov

5-Nov

6-Nov

9-Nov

10-Nov

Estimate

Corn

-24800

-29731

-4931

-1000

-10000

-5000

-11000

-20000

-76731

Wheat

-75385

-65726

9659

9000

0

-2000

-12000

-12000

-82726

Soybeans

-26295

-50,299

-24004

3000

-12000

4000

0

-10000

-65299

Soymeal

16314

5983

-10331

1000

-6000

-1000

0

-5000

-5017

Soyoil

7141

1107

-6034

4000

-8000

3000

-2000

-6000

-7893

News 

Dec Euro at 1.0742 up .0030

USD – BRL at 3.7161 down .0310

India, France, and Canada on holiday today.

Nikkei closes up .10%

Hang Seng closes down .2%

Shanghai Index closes up .3%

China’s October Industrial Output +5.6% , expecting +5.8%

Expectations China’s government will take more measures to stimulate economy

Weekly API energy inventory report came out yesterday afternoon at 330 pm

  • Crude a build of 6.3 MB , expecting a build of 1.0 MB

China grain markets closes – soybeans down 22, corn down 14, meal down 2, palm oil down 58, bean oil down 36

Malaysian palm oil market closes down 52

Malaysian Palm Oil Board came out today with their October Malaysian palm oil data report.

  • Palm oil stocks at 2.834 MMT , expecting 2.72 MMT and vs. September stocks of 2.64 MMT
  • Palm oil output at 2.037 MMT , expecting 1.93 MMT , and vs. September output of 1.959 MMT
  • Palm oil exports at 1.712 MMT , expecting 1.62 MMT , and vs. September exports of 1.680 MMT

Surveyor SGS estimated Malaysia Nov 1-10 palm oil exports at 450,670 tons down 3.3% from a month ago

Surveyor Intertek estimated Malaysia’s Nov 1-10 palm oil exports at 434,862 tons down 5.3% from a month ago

South Korea NOFI seeks 110-138,000 tons of optional origin corn for April-May shipment

South Korea NOFI seeks 50-65,000 tons of optional origin feed wheat for May shipment

South Korea KFA seeks 65,000 tons of optional origin corn for April shipment

South Korea KOCOPIA seeks 165,000 tons of optional origin corn for March shipment

Concerns about shipping delays in Brazil

Today is the fourth day Goldman Sachs / UBS roll. Roll ends tomorrow. They are rolling long December corn and wheat positions to March.

  • GS / UBS has already rolled their long December bean oil and soy meal positions to January during the November soybean roll.

Deliveries

  • Rice – 10 with the date current

Receipt Registrations as of yesterday afternoon:  -no changes

  • Wheat = 484
  • Oats = 13
  • Corn = 36
  • Ethanol = 0
  • DDGs = 0
  • Beans = 222
  • Bean oil = 3,024
  • Soymeal = 0
  • Rice = 2,543
  • KC wheat = 223
  • Minneapolis wheat =  674

Upcoming reports/events:

  • Weekly US jobless claims report comes out tomorrow at 730 am CST
  • Weekly US export sales report comes out on Friday at 730 am CST
  • Weekly Nat Gas storage report will come out on Friday at 930 am CST, due to US holiday
  • Weekly DOE energy inventory report will come out Friday at 10 am CST , due to US holiday
  • Weekly US ethanol plant production report comes out on Friday at 10 am CST , due to US holiday
  • November beans and rice expire on Friday at noon CST
  • Weekly COT report comes out Friday at 230 pm CST
  • G20 summit in Antalya Turkey will take place on Sunday and Monday
  • NOPA October crush report comes out on Monday at 11 am CST
  • Argentina run-off presidential elections on Sunday November 22nd. No candidate was able to get 45% of the vote in the October 25th elections

o   Argentina farmers have been holding on to their grains and oilseeds , both candidates are promising to end wheat and corn export taxes and reduce the soybean export tax

  • US EPA reaffirms plan to finalize biofuels plan by the end of November
  • ABARES come out on Tuesday December 1st with their Australian crop estimate updates
  • OPEC to meet in early December
  • Estimated commodity index rebalances for January 2016 . Roll will be January 8-14th.

o   Estimates by Morgan Stanley

  • Feeder Cattle to buy 1,996 contracts
  • Lean Hogs to buy 10,441 contracts
  • Coffee to buy 7,192 contracts
  • Sugar to sell 26,993 contracts
  • Nickel to buy 7,022 contracts
  • Copper to buy 4,845 contracts
  • Cotton to sell 4,652 contracts
  • Zinc to buy 4,934 contracts
  • Gasoil to sell 11,751 contracts
  • KC wheat to buy 3,150 contracts
  • RBOB to sell 4,618 contracts
  • Gold to sell 5,854 contracts
  • Bean oil to buy 5,075 contracts
  • Silver to sell 1,982 contracts
  • Soybean meal to buy 4,176 contracts
  • Corn to sell 11,943 contracts
  • Live Cattle to buy 2,218 contracts
  • Heating Oil to sell 3,097 contracts
  • Soybeans to buy 5,017 contracts
  • Crude oil to buy 12,857 contracts
  • Aluminum to buy 5,783 contracts
  • Brent Oil to sell 12,749 contracts
  • Natural Gas to buy 4,355 contracts
  • Cocoa to buy 356 contracts
  • Lead to buy 161 contracts
  • Wheat to sell 14 contracts

Data sources: Dow Jones , Bloomberg, Reuters , DTN news, barchart.com, CME Group and NYSE