News From The Grain Floor 11/10/15

USDA November Crop Production and Supply and Demand report comes out today at 11 am CST. See attachment for recap table or see below for estimates for report.

Egypt GASC is in for wheat for December shipment

  • Egypt receives offers from France, Ukraine, and Russia

Overnight closes

  • SF down 2 ½ at 863 ¾
  • CZ down 1 ½ at 365 ¼
  • WZ down 1 ¼ at 500 ½
  • KC WZ up a ¼ at 474 ½
  • MWZ up 1 ¼ at 505 ½
  • SMZ down .70 at 294.30
  • BOZ down 9 at 2768

Overnight volume

  • SF 8,348
  • CZ 23,660
  • WZ 7,206
  • KC WZ 1,468
  • MWZ 335
  • SMZ 3,002
  • BOZ 4,766

Overnight option volume

  • Corn 9,371

o   1,200 Dec corn 320 puts traded overnight at an 1/8

  • Wheat 1,241
  • Beans 7,505
  • Meal 245
  • Bean oil 54

Total EOO’s cleared from previous session

Contract Year Month

Product

P/C

Strike Price

Ex Pit Volume – CME Group

201603

CORN OPTIONS

P

390

95

201512

CORN OPTIONS

P

380

20

Funds

 

COT

COT

COT

 

 

 

 

Current

 

27-Oct

3-Nov

to COT

4-Nov

5-Nov

6-Nov

9-Nov

Estimate

Corn

-24800

-29731

-4931

-1000

-10000

-5000

-11000

-56731

Wheat

-75385

-65726

9659

9000

0

-2000

-12000

-70726

Soybeans

-26295

-50,299

-24004

3000

-12000

4000

0

-55299

Soymeal

16314

5983

-10331

1000

-6000

-1000

0

-17

Soyoil

7141

1107

-6034

4000

-8000

3000

-2000

-1893

South American weather

Over the last 2 weeks, most corn and soybean areas in South America (Argentina, Brazil and Paraguay) were wetter than normal…this includes much of center-west and southeast Brazil where some rains exceeded 6.00” which improved conditions for plantings and growth. Only Bahia received little rain over this period. As of October 30th, 31% of Brazil beans were planted (Mato Grosso 38%, Parana 66%). In Argentina, 36% of the corn is now planted (and 8% of the beans). In the next week, mainly dry and hot weather will affect center-west Brazil while a seasonal stormy pattern affects other South American main growing areas. Thunderstorms should return to the Brazilian drying areas next week which limits concerns over this week’s lack of rain. See below for maps

News

Dec Euro at

USD – BRL at

Nikkei closes up .15% at 2 ½ month high

Hang Seng closes down 1.43%

Shanghai Index closes down .2%

More signs of an economic slowdown in China

  • Inflation in China dropped to 1.3% year on year in October, expecting 1.5%,  vs. 1.6% in September

According to a some economists, there is now a 75% chance of a December US Fed rate hike.

Malaysian markets closed today for holiday.

China grain markets closes – soybeans down 17, corn down 33, meal down 6, palm oil down 24, and bean oil down 8

Malaysian palm oil market closed for holiday

CONAB came out this morning with their Brazilian ‘15/16 crop estimates

  • Estimated bean crop at 101.2-102.8 MMT vs. previous estimate of 100.1-101.9 MMT
  • Estimated total corn crop at 81.1-82.7 MMT vs. previous estimate of 82.6-83.6 MMT
  • Estimated bean exports at 55.0 MMT vs. previous estimate of 53.0 MMT and vs. 52.6  MMT a year ago
  • Estimated corn exports at 28.0 MMT vs. 29.7 MMT a year ago

Algeria seeks 50,000 tons of optional origin milling wheat for January shipment

Egypt GASC seeks bean oil and sunflower oil for December shipment

Japan seeks 119,415 tons of food wheat for February shipment. Breakdown

  • 23,084 tons of US western white wheat
  • 11,950 tons of US HRW wheat
  • 32,021 tons of US dark northern spring wheat
  • 32,470 tons of Canadian western red spring wheat
  • 19,890 tons of Australian white wheat

Safras e Mercado said Brazil soybean planting is 42.3% complete vs. 46% a year ago and vs. 57.2% average

Safras e Mercado said Mato Grosso bean planting is 60% complete vs. 65% a year ago

Safras e Mercado said Brazil has sold 41% of their ‘15/16 bean crop vs. 38% sold as of October 1st and vs. 17% a year ago

China is considering offering subsidies to feed mills to lift domestic corn sales, and also trying to sell down its huge state reserves of corn at discounted prices.

  • China’s corn stocks are estimated at 200.0 MMT

China customs data showed China imported 5.53 MMT of beans in October down 24% from September and up 35% from October 2014

Indonesia’s Palm Oil Association said Indonesia exported 2.61 MMT of palm oil in October vs. 2.34 MMT in September and vs. 2.47 MMT in October 2014.

Indonesia’s Palm Oil Association estimated Indonesia’s 2015 biodiesel consumption at 1.25 million kiloliters

Indonesia Estate Crop Fund Agency estimated 2015 biodiesel consumption at 1.6 MMT and estimated 2016 biodiesel consumption at 4.0 MMT

Today is the second day of truckers strike in Brazil. Truckers in Brazil started an indefinite strike yesterday. There were protests in 11 states , but federal roads were only totally blocked in four places nationwide and partially blocked in 22.

Analysts in Australia said heavy rains last week in Australia’s east coast are not expected to cause large-scale quality downgrades to wheat

Rains in forecast for southern Russia for the next 6-10 days

Today is the third day Goldman Sachs / UBS roll. Roll ends on Thursday. They are rolling long December corn and wheat positions to March.

  • GS / UBS has already rolled their long December bean oil and soy meal positions to January during the November soybean roll.

Weekly US crop progress report from yesterday afternoon

Corn

  • Harvested – 93% , as expected , vs. 85% a week ago and vs. 88% five year average

Soybeans

  • Harvested – 95% , expecting 96% complete, vs. 92% a week ago and vs. 93% five year average

Winter wheat

  • Condition – 51% good to excellent, up 2% from a week ago , expecting up 1% from a week ago , and vs. 60% good to excellent a year ago
  • Planted – 92% vs. 88% a week ago and vs. 94% five year ago
  • Emerged – 80% vs. 72% a week ago and vs. 80% five year average

Cotton

  • Harvested – 58% vs. 50% a week ago and vs. 65% five year average

Deliveries

  • Soybeans – 73 with the date at 10/29/15

o   House ADM stopped 73

  • Rice – 47 with the date current

Receipt Registrations as of yesterday afternoon:- no changes

  • Wheat = 484
  • Oats = 13
  • Corn = 36
  • Ethanol = 0
  • DDGs = 0
  • Beans = 222
  • Bean oil = 3,024
  • Soymeal = 0
  • Rice = 2,543
  • KC wheat = 223
  • Minneapolis wheat =  674

Moving averages:

  • Dec wheat 20 day 506   
  • Dec wheat 50 day 500 ¾  
  • Dec wheat 100 day 517 ½  
  • Dec KC wheat 20 day 486 ½    
  • Dec Minneapolis wheat 20 day 515  
  • Dec Minneapolis wheat 50 day 517 ¾    
  • Dec meal 20 day 304.30
  • Dec bean oil 20 day 2826
  • Dec bean oil 50 day 2775

Open interest as of yesterday’s close:

  • Total corn –   1,369,630 open, down 16,544
  • Total soybeans – 658,021 open, up 3,162
  • Total soymeal – 418,461 open, down 1,951
  • Total bean oil – 445,566 open, down 657
  • Total wheat – 375,650 open, down 6,535
  • Total KC wheat – 200,567 open, down 1,206

Upcoming reports/events:

  • Weekly API energy inventory report comes out today at 330 pm CST
  • Veteran’s Day in US tomorrow. US government and banks will be closed. US grain markets will be opened.
  • Malaysian Palm Oil Board comes out tomorrow with their October Malaysian palm oil data report. Based on a Reuters survey expecting

o   Palm oil stocks estimated at 2.72 MMT up 3.3% from September stocks

o   Palm oil output estimated at 1.93 MMT down 1.5% from September output

o   Palm oil exports estimated at 1.62 MMT down 3.5% from September exports

  • Surveyors SGS and Intertek come out tomorrow with their Malaysian Nov 1-10 palm oil export estimates
  • Weekly US jobless claims report comes out on Thursday at 730 am CST
  • Weekly US export sales report comes out on Friday at 730 am CST
  • Weekly Nat Gas storage report will come out on Friday November 13 at 930 am CST, due to US holiday
  • Weekly DOE energy inventory report will come out Friday November 13 at 10 am CST , due to US holiday
  • Weekly US ethanol plant production report comes out on Friday November 13 at 10 am CST , due to US holiday
  • November beans and rice expire on Friday at noon CST
  • Weekly COT report comes out Friday at 230 pm CST
  • NOPA October crush report comes out on Monday at 11 am CST
  • Argentina run-off presidential elections on Sunday November 22nd. No candidate was able to get 45% of the vote in the October 25th elections

o   Argentina farmers have been holding on to their grains and oilseeds , both candidates are promising to end wheat and corn export taxes and reduce the soybean export tax

  • US EPA reaffirms plan to finalize biofuels plan by the end of November
  • ABARES come out on Tuesday December 1st with their Australian crop estimate updates
  • OPEC to meet in early December
  • Estimated commodity index rebalances for January 2016 . Roll will be January 8-14th.

o   Estimates by Morgan Stanley

  • Feeder Cattle to buy 1,996 contracts
  • Lean Hogs to buy 10,441 contracts
  • Coffee to buy 7,192 contracts
  • Sugar to sell 26,993 contracts
  • Nickel to buy 7,022 contracts
  • Copper to buy 4,845 contracts
  • Cotton to sell 4,652 contracts
  • Zinc to buy 4,934 contracts
  • Gasoil to sell 11,751 contracts
  • KC wheat to buy 3,150 contracts
  • RBOB to sell 4,618 contracts
  • Gold to sell 5,854 contracts
  • Bean oil to buy 5,075 contracts
  • Silver to sell 1,982 contracts
  • Soybean meal to buy 4,176 contracts
  • Corn to sell 11,943 contracts
  • Live Cattle to buy 2,218 contracts
  • Heating Oil to sell 3,097 contracts
  • Soybeans to buy 5,017 contracts
  • Crude oil to buy 12,857 contracts
  • Aluminum to buy 5,783 contracts
  • Brent Oil to sell 12,749 contracts
  • Natural Gas to buy 4,355 contracts
  • Cocoa to buy 356 contracts
  • Lead to buy 161 contracts
  • Wheat to sell 14 contracts

Estimates for today’s USDA supply and demand and crop production report. Report comes out at 11 am CST.

  • Estimates are based on what analysts think the USDA will report on Tuesday .

Estimates for ‘15/16 US corn and soybean production

  • Corn production (20 analysts surveyed) – Average estimate 13.579 BB, range of estimates are 13.435 -13.718 BB. USDA October estimate was 13.555 BB
  • Corn yield (20 analysts surveyed) – Average estimate 168.4 BPA, range of estimates are 166.6 -170.1 BPA. USDA October estimate was 168.0 BPA
  • Corn harvested acres (18 analysts surveyed) – Average estimate 80.663 MA, range of estimates are 80.500-80.700 MA. USDA October estimate was 80.644 MA
  • Soybean production (19 analysts surveyed) – Average estimate 3.915 BB, range of estimates are 3.895-3.955 BB. USDA October estimate was 3.888 BB
  • Soybean yield (19 analysts surveyed) – Average estimate 47.5 BPA, range of estimates are 47.3 – 48.0 BPA. USDA October estimate was 47.2 BPA
  • Soybean harvested acres (17 analysts surveyed) – Average estimate 82.379 MA, range of estimates are 82.200 – 82.430 MA. USDA October estimate was 82.429 MA

Estimates for ‘15/16 US ending stocks

  • Wheat (18 analysts surveyed) – Average estimate is .877 BB, range of estimates are .836 -.914 BB. USDA October estimate was .861 BB
  • Corn (19 analysts surveyed) – Average estimate is 1.597 BB, range of estimates are 1.461 -1.702 BB. USDA October estimate was 1.561 BB
  • Beans (19 analysts surveyed) – Average estimate is .436 BB, range of estimates are .375 -.474 BB. USDA October  estimate was .425 BB

Estimates for ‘15/16 world ending stocks

  • Wheat (13 analysts surveyed) – Average estimate 227.82 MMT, range of estimates are 225.50-230.00 MMT . USDA October estimate was 228.49 MMT
  • Corn (13 analysts surveyed) – Average estimate 188.43 MMT, range of estimates are 184.85-190.76 MMT . USDA October estimate was 187.83 MMT

Beans (13 analysts surveyed) – Average estimate 85.32 MMT, range of estimates are 83.64 -86.70 MMT . USDA October estimate was 85.15 MMT

 

Data sources: Dow Jones , Bloomberg, Reuters , DTN news, barchart.com, CME Group and NYSE