News From The Grain Floor 10/29/15

Today is position day for November soybean futures.

  • Traders should be out of long positions by today’s close or risk delivery.

o   Most analysts are not expecting any soybean deliveries tonight

  • As of yesterday afternoon there were no soybean receipts registered
  • As of yesterday afternoon there were 41,682 November soybean contracts opened, down 26,836 contracts from the day before

Egypt GASC is in for wheat for December shipment.

  • Offers from Poland , France , Russia, and Romania

Overnight closes

  • SF down 1 at 881 ¾
  • CZ up a ½ at 376 ½
  • WZ up 1 at 507
  • KC WZ up a ½ at 486
  • MWZ down ¾ at 515 ¼
  • SMZ up .10 at 300.00
  • BOZ up 4 at 2815

Overnight volume

  • SF 15,266
  • CZ 17,114
  • WZ 7,157
  • KC WZ 549
  • MWZ 171
  • SMZ 4,458
  • BOZ 13,546

Overnight option volume

  • Corn 942
  • Wheat 426
  • Beans 3,166
  • Meal 165
  • Bean oil 0

Total EOO’s cleared from previous session

  • None. 

Funds

 

COT

COT

COT

 

 

 

 

 

 

Current

 

13-Oct

20-Oct

to COT

21-Oct

22-Oct

23-Oct

26-Oct

27-Oct

28-Oct

Estimate

Corn

22771

-26693

-49464

9000

-5000

3000

6000

-10,500

-8000

-32193

Wheat

-59149

-96635

-37486

2000

-3000

0

11000

0

-3000

-89635

Soybeans

-5386

-10,043

-4657

9000

-8000

-7000

-10000

5000

-8000

-29043

Soymeal

44151

40609

-3542

2000

-2000

-3000

-4000

2000

-5000

30609

Soyoil

6757

10508

3751

5000

-3000

-4000

-6000

0

5000

7508

News

Dec Euro at 1.0938 up .0029

USD – BRL at 3.9367 up .0300

Nikkei closes up .17%

  • Japan reported a better-than-expected September 1.0% increase in industrial production compared to August
  • BOJ policy meeting tomorrow  

o   Expectations BOJ will take measures to boost economy

Hang Seng closes down .60%

Shanghai Index closes up .4%

Yesterday US Feds set up the possibility of a  rate hike in December.

Weekly US jobless claims report came out this morning at +1,000 to 260,000 expecting, 265,000

US 3rd quarter GDP +1.5%, expecting +1.6%

Bunge reports worse-than-expected revenue.

China grain markets closes – soybeans down 6, corn down 8, meal down 10, palm oil up 24, and bean oil up 18

Malaysian palm oil market closes up 28

Some analysts saying China’s October soybean imports could reach a record monthly high of 10.3 MMT

Reports/talk from yesterday , India eyeing US bean oil

Reports/talk India bought 50-100,000 tons of old crop South American bean oil this week

Reports/talk India is starting to buy Chinese soymeal in small volumes.

South Korea KFA canceled tender for 65,000 tons of optional origin corn for April shipment , due to high prices .

Israel bought an unknown volume of optional origin corn  (possibly Black Sea origin) for Dec-March shipment. Israel was tendering for up to 125,000 tons of corn

Israel bought an unknown volume of optional origin feed wheat , Israel was tendering for up to 35,000 tons of feed wheat

Jordan tenders again for 100,000 tons of optional origin hard wheat

From yesterday – Concerns that China could slow imports of DDGS, a byproduct of corn-based ethanol . Chinese customers stopped buying US DDGS on fears Chinese government may launch another anti-dumping probe into the imports

  • Slower pace of DDGS shipments to China could result in larger domestic stockpiles of corn and its byproducts as US corn is more expensive than grain shipped out of South America and the Black Sea

Much needed rains fell and are in forecast for Brazil’s soybean and grain belts this week.

Rogers roll starts today and ends Monday. They will be rolling long December bean oil and soy meal positions into January and will be rolling long wheat and corn positions to March.

Weekly US export sales report

  • Wheat ‘15/16 550,300 tons (expecting 350-550,000 tons)
  • Corn ‘15/16 708,800 tons (expecting 300-500,000 tons)
  • Beans ‘15/16 2.087 million tons ‘16/17 68,600 tons (expecting 1.6-2.0 million tons)
  • Meal ‘15/16 218,700 tons (expecting 150-350,000 tons)
  • Bean oil ‘15/16 82,100 (expecting 30-60,000 tons)

Export highlights

  • Wheat – Net sales of 550,300 metric tons for delivery in marketing year 2015/2016 were up 54 percent from the previous week and 86 percent from the prior 4-week average.  Increases were reported for South Korea (96,500 MT), the Philippines (91,600 MT, including 35,000 MT switched from unknown destinations), Thailand (75,800 MT), Mexico (59,200 MT), unknown destinations (43,700 MT), and Nigeria (41,000 MT).  Reductions were reported for the French West Indies (7,500 MT).  Exports of 320,200 MT were up 51 percent from the previous week, but down 26 percent from the prior 4-week average.  The primary destinations were South Korea (53,300 MT), the Philippines (46,600 MT), Mexico (37,800 MT), Guatemala (28,200 MT), and Japan (24,000 MT).
  • Corn – Net sales of 708,800 MT for 2015/2016 were up noticeably from the previous week and 34 percent from the prior 4-week average.  Increases reported for Mexico (300,000 MT), Colombia (160,900 MT, including 52,500 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 1,600 MT), Peru (104,700 MT, including 55,000 MT switched from unknown destinations), unknown destinations (81,700 MT), and Jamaica (22,000 MT), were partially offset by reductions for Japan (18,300 MT).  Exports of 433,300 MT were up 6 percent from the previous week, but down 25 percent from the prior 4-week average.  The primary destinations were Mexico (139,400 MT), Colombia (124,600 MT), Peru (60,600 MT), Japan (52,700 MT), Guatemala (22,100 MT), and Canada (18,000 MT).
  • Beans – Net sales of 2,087,400 MT for 2015/2016 were up 8 percent from the previous week and 19 percent from the prior 4-week average.  Increases were reported for China (1,410,700 MT, including 673,000 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 135,600 MT), Germany (190,500 MT), Mexico (146,100 MT), the Netherlands (109,500 MT, including 112,000 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 3,100 MT), Saudi Arabia (72,600 MT, including 66,000 MT switched from unknown destinations), and Vietnam (65,800 MT, including 60,000 MT switched from unknown destinations).  Reductions were reported for unknown destinations (259,000 MT) and Switzerland (50,000 MT). Net sales of 68,600 MT for 2016/2017 were reported for unknown destinations (43,000 MT) and Japan (25,600 MT).  Exports of 2,806,100 MT–a marketing-year high–were up 25 percent from the previous week and up noticeably from the prior 4-week average.  The primary destinations were China (1,739,600 MT), Germany (190,500 MT), the Netherlands (109,500 MT), Mexico (104,700 MT), and Saudi Arabia (72,600 MT).
  • Meal –  Net sales of 218,700 MT for 2015/2016 were down 17 percent from the previous week.  Increases were reported for Japan (51,600 MT), Mexico (36,300 MT), Portugal (26,200 MT, including 12,500 MT switched from Spain), Venezuela (20,400 MT, including 20,000 MT switched from unknown destinations), Egypt (17,000 MT), and Canada (15,400 MT).  Reductions were reported for unknown destinations (20,600 MT) and Spain (7,500 MT).  Exports of 329,300 MT were primarily to Mexico (67,100 MT), the Philippines (47,600 MT), Thailand (47,500 MT), the Dominican Republic (32,500 MT), and Portugal (26,200 MT).  
  • Bean oil – Net sales of 82,100 MT for 2015/2016 were up noticeably from the previous week.  Increases were reported for unknown destinations (40,000 MT), China (20,000 MT), Peru (9,000 MT), Mexico (4,200 MT), and Jamaica (3,500 MT). Exports of 15,200 MT were primarily to Mexico (7,300 MT), Nicaragua (4,200 MT), and the Dominican Republic (3,500 MT). 

Moving averages:

  • Jan bean 20 day 895 ½
  • Jan bean 50 day 887 ½  
  • Dec corn 20 day 382 ½  
  • Dec corn 50 day 380 ½       
  • Dec corn 100 day 389 ¼  
  • Dec wheat 20 day 505 ¼    
  • Dec wheat 50 day 497 ½
  • Dec wheat 100 day 517 ½
  • Dec KC wheat 20 day 493 ½
  • Dec KC wheat 50 day 490
  • Dec Minneapolis wheat 20 day 521 ¼
  • Dec Minneapolis wheat 50 day 518 
  • Dec meal 20 day 307.40
  • Dec meal 50 day 308.90
  • Dec meal 100 day 317.80
  • Dec meal 200 day 314.70
  • Dec bean oil 20 day 2846
  • Dec bean oil 50 day 2768

Receipt Registrations as of yesterday afternoon:

  • Wheat = 521

o   91 wheat receipts were canceled yesterday afternoon

  • Out of Bunge , Blytheville, AR
  • Oats = 13
  • Corn = 342

o   3 corn receipts were canceled yesterday afternoon

  • Out of CHS Inc. Perkin , IL
  • Ethanol = 6
  • DDGs = 0
  • Beans = 0
  • Bean oil = 3,024
  • Soymeal = 0
  • Rice = 2,616
  • KC wheat = 223
  • Minneapolis wheat =  674

Open interest as of yesterday’s close:

  • Total corn –  1,331,750 open, up 11,241
  • Total soybeans – 648,738 open, down 8,553
  • Total soymeal – 410,741 open, up 1,614
  • Total bean oil – 438,127 open, up 7,842
  • Total wheat – 387,574 open, down 2,212
  • Total KC wheat – 197,544 open, up 1,545

Upcoming reports/events:

  • Weekly EIA Nat Gas storage report comes out today at 930 am CST , expecting +70 BCF
  • First notice day for November futures is tomorrow

o   Most analysts not expecting any soybean deliveries  

  • Tomorrow  is month end.
  • BOJ meets tomorrow

o   Expectations BOJ will take measures to boost economy

  • Surveyors SGS and Intertek will estimate Malaysia’s October palm oil exports tomorrow.
  • Weekly COT report comes out tomorrow at 230 pm CST
  • China’s October official manufacturing PMI comes out Sunday night/Monday morning.

o   Expecting Oct PMI at 50.0 vs. Sept PMI of 49.8

  • China’s October Caixin/Markit manufacturing PMI comes out on Monday
  • US Daylight Saving Time ends Sunday November 1st.
  • Effective Sunday November 1st , for trade date Monday, November 2nd CBOT will reset price limits for grain and oilseed futures. New price limits will be

o   Corn – .25 cents per bushel vs. .30 cents currently

o   Soybeans – .60 cents per bushel vs. .70 cents currently

o   Chicago wheat – .35 cents per bushel vs. .40 cents currently

o   KC wheat – .35 cents per bushel vs. .40 cents currently

o   Bean oil – 200 tics unchanged from current limit

o   Soy meal – $20 per ton vs. $25 currently

o   Oats – .20 cents per bushel unchanged from current limit

o   Rice – .90 cents vs. .75 cents currently

  • ADM to release third quarter financial results on Tuesday November 3rd
  • Goldman Sachs / UBS roll begins Friday November 6th . GS /UBS roll runs for five days. They will be rolling long December corn and wheat positions to March.

o   GS / UBS has already rolled their long December bean oil and soy meal positions to January during the November soybean roll.

  • Argentina main presidential candidates will run again on November 22nd

o   No candidate was able to get 45% of the vote in the October 25th elections

  • US EPA reaffirms plan to finalize biofuels plan by the end of November
  • ABARES come out on Tuesday December 1st with their Australian crop estimate updates
  • OPEC to meet in early December

Data sources: Dow Jones , Bloomberg, Reuters , DTN news, barchart.com, CME Group and NYSE