News From The Grain Floor 10/26/15

USDA announced 120,000 tons of US beans sold to China for ’15/16 shipment

Argentina presidential Argentina opposition challenger Marci forces run-off in tight election.

  • Since no candidates was able to get 45% of the votes

o   The main candidates will run again in December

  • From an Argentine contact – producers are likely to keep sales restricted for now until they have some clarity for the polls

Overnight closes

  • SF down 5 at 891
  • CZ down a ½ at 379 ¼
  • WZ up 5 ¾ at 496 ¼
  • KC WZ up 5 ¼ at 480 ¾
  • MWZ up 5 ¼ at 513 ¼
  • SMZ down .60 at 304.50
  • BOZ down 15 at 2842

Overnight volume

  • SF 20,346
  • CZ 30,867
  • WZ 10,927
  • KC WZ 1,017
  • MWZ 457
  • SMZ 4,629
  • BOZ 5,642

Overnight option volume

  • Corn 3,241
  • Wheat 743
  • Beans 4,845
  • Meal 35
  • Bean oil 243

Total EOO’s cleared from previous session

Contract Year Month

Product

P/C

Strike Price

Ex Pit Volume – CME Group

201512

CORN OPTIONS

P

410

472

201512

CORN OPTIONS

P

420

141

201512

CHICAGO SRW WHEAT OPTIONS

P

520

14

201512

CHICAGO SRW WHEAT OPTIONS

P

540

2

201512

CORN OPTIONS

P

400

2

Funds/COT

 

COT

COT

COT

 

 

 

Current

COT Record

 

COT Record

 

 

13-Oct

20-Oct

to COT

21-Oct

22-Oct

23-Oct

Estimate

Long

 

Short

 

Corn

22771

-26693

-49464

9000

-5000

3000

-19693

9/28/2010

372756

-240854

10/29/2013

Wheat

-59149

-96635

-37486

2000

-3000

0

-97635

10/24/2006

30146

-110792

5/5/2015

Soybeans

-5386

-10,043

-4657

9000

-8000

-7000

-16043

5/1/2012

224822

-92991

5/26/2015

Soymeal

44151

40609

-3542

2000

-2000

-3000

37609

11/11/2014

70115

-22711

4/14/2015

Soyoil

6757

10508

3751

5000

-3000

-4000

8508

4/10/2007

81193

-80562

1/21/2014

News

Dec Euro at 1.1022 up .0011

USD – BRL at 3.8439 down .0324

Nikkei closes up .65%

Hang Seng closes down .15%

Shanghai Index closes up .5%

FOMC two day policy meeting tomorrow and Wednesday. Fed announcement Wednesday at 1 pm CST.

Reminder: European Daylight Saving Time ended on Sunday October 25th, Daylight Saving Time in US does not end until Sunday November 1st

China grain markets closes – soybeans down 41, corn up 22, meal down 18, palm oil down 84, and bean oil down 40

Malaysian palm oil market closes down 50

China importers are actively booking US soybean shipments for November and December.

Some analysts estimating China’s October bean imports could top 9.0 MMT

South Korea CJ bought 51,100 tons of US wheat for March shipment

South Korea MFG seeks 120,000 tons of optional origin meal for May shipment

Reports/market talk that the US farmer is undersold by 10-30% against average on both soybeans and corn

COOIT estimated India’s 2015 bean crop at 7.2 MMT down 15.3 % from 2014 due to dry weather

IMEA said Mato Grosso planted 19.6% of their bean crop vs. 14.3% a week ago and vs. 20.1% a year ago and vs. 40.4% average.

Buenos Aires Grains Exchange –Argentina’s weekly crop progress report from last week

  • Corn planting is 31.7% complete vs. 32.8% a year ago
  • Sun seed planting is 36.1% complete vs. 40.5% a year ago
  • Wheat harvest has barley started
  • Bean planting has barley started

Russia’s federal customs service said Russia’s grain exported 12.319 MMT  between July 1-Oct 21 down 12.2% from a year ago

  • Including 9.514 MMT of wheat
  • Including 2.0 MMT of barley
  • Including 695,000 tons of corn

COPA said for the week ending October 21st Canadian crushers crushed 159,925 tons of canola down 5.2% from the week before

COPA said for the week ending October 21st Canadian crushers crushed 52,669 tons of beans up 55.4% from the week before

Concerns about dryness in US Plains , dry forecast for the rest of the week

Concerns about dryness in Russia

Receipt Registrations as of Friday’s afternoon:

  • Wheat = 612

o   36 wheat receipts canceled Friday afternoon

  • Out of Bunge , Caruthersville, MO
  • Oats = 13
  • Corn = 367

o   275 corn receipts were canceled Friday afternoon

  • 110 out of ADM,  Ottawa IL
  • 88 out of ADM , Spring Valley IL
  • 33 out of CHS , Perkin IL
  • 44 out of CGB Utica , IL
  • Ethanol = 6
  • DDGs = 0
  • Beans = 0

o   47 bean receipts were canceled Friday afternoon

  • Out of ADM Lacon IL
  • Bean oil = 3,024
  • Soymeal = 0
  • Rice = 2,616
  • KC wheat = 223
  • Minneapolis wheat =  674

Upcoming reports/events:  

  • Weekly US export inspections report comes out today at 10 am CST
  • Weekly US crop progress report comes out today at 3 pm CST. Expecting

o   Corn harvest 72-77% complete

o   Bean harvest 80-90% complete

o   Winter wheat condition expecting about 50% good to excellent, first time USDA will report winter wheat condition

  • CEC to estimate South Africa’s corn area tomorrow.

o   Based on a Reuters survey South Africa’s 2016 corn area estimated at 2.63 MH vs. 2015 area of 2.65 MH

  • FOMC two day policy meeting is tomorrow  and Wednesday
  • Weekly API energy inventory report comes out tomorrow at 330 pm CST
  • Fed announcement Wednesday at 1 pm CST.
  • Position day for November futures is Thursday. Traders should be out of long positions by the close or risk delivery
  • Rogers roll starts Thursday. Rogers roll runs for three days. They will be rolling long December bean oil and soy meal positions into January and will be rolling long wheat and corn positions to March.
  • First notice day for November futures is Friday
  • Friday is month end.
  • BOJ meets on Friday

o   Expectations BOJ will take measures to boost economy

  • Effective Sunday November 1st , for trade date Monday, November 2nd CBOT will reset price limits for grain and oilseed futures. New price limits will be

o   Corn – .25 cents per bushel vs. .30 cents currently

o   Soybeans – .60 cents per bushel vs. .70 cents currently

o   Chicago wheat – .35 cents per bushel vs. .40 cents currently

o   KC wheat – .35 cents per bushel vs. .40 cents currently

o   Bean oil – 200 tics unchanged from current limit

o   Soy meal – $20 per ton vs. $25 currently

o   Oats – .20 cents per bushel unchanged from current limit

o   Rice – .90 cents vs. .75 cents currently

  • ADM to release third quarter financial results on Tuesday November 3rd
  • Goldman Sachs / UBS roll begins Friday November 6th . GS /UBS roll runs for five days. They will be rolling long December corn and wheat positions to March.

o   GS / UBS has already rolled their long December bean oil and soy meal positions to January during the November soybean roll.

  • US EPA reaffirms plan to finalize biofuels plan by the end of November
  • ABARES come out on Tuesday December 1st with their Australian crop estimate updates
  • OPEC to meet in early December

Data sources: Dow Jones , Bloomberg, Reuters , DTN news, barchart.com, CME Group and NYSE