News From The Grain Floor 10/23/15

USDA announced 130,000 tons of US corn sold to unknown for ‘15/16 shipment

USDA announced 208,000 tons of US beans sold to unknown for ‘15/16 shipment

USDA said exporters change destination of sales of 236,000 tons of US beans from unknown destinations to China for ‘15/16 shipment

  • Yesterday USDA announced 463,000 tons of US beans sold to unknown

November options expire today at 120 pm CST.

China’s central bank cuts interest rates by .25%, for the sixth time since November.

Argentina president elections on Sunday

Overnight closes

  • SX down a ¼ at 898 ½
  • SF down 1 at 900
  • CZ unchanged at 378 ¼
  • WZ up 2 ¼ at 493
  • KC WZ up 1 ½ at 477
  • MWZ up 1 ½ at 509 ½
  • SMZ down .90 at 306.90
  • BOZ up 14 at 2899

Overnight volume

  • SX 17,653
  • SF 14,856
  • CZ 23,331
  • WZ 7,756
  • KC WZ 1,862
  • MWZ 168
  • SMZ 8,584
  • BOZ 7,765

Overnight option volume

  • Corn 4,485
  • Wheat 1,594
  • Beans 6,054
  • Meal 47
  • Bean oil 492

Total EOO’s cleared from previous session

Contract Year Month

Product

P/C

Strike Price

Ex Pit Volume – CME Group

201512

CORN OPTIONS

P

420

95

201512

CHICAGO SRW WHEAT OPTIONS

P

530

21

201512

CHICAGO SRW WHEAT OPTIONS

P

510

19

201512

CORN OPTIONS

P

400

16

201603

CORN OPTIONS

P

380

12

201512

CHICAGO SRW WHEAT OPTIONS

P

520

7

201512

CORN OPTIONS

P

410

5

Funds

 

COT

COT

COT

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Current

 

6-Oct

13-Oct

to COT

14-Oct

15-Oct

16-Oct

19-Oct

20-Oct

21-Oct

22-Oct

Estimate

Corn

52065

22771

-29294

-8000

-5000

5000

-6000

8000

9000

-5000

20771

Wheat

-54371

-59149

-4778

-5000

-3000

-6000

-5000

4000

2000

-3000

-75149

Soybeans

-29940

-5386

24554

-4000

-6000

-7000

-7000

7000

9000

-8000

-21386

Soymeal

28771

44151

15380

-2000

-2000

-2000

-2000

-2000

2000

-2000

34151

Soyoil

853

6757

5904

0

-2000

0

-3000

3000

5000

-3000

6757

News

Dec Euro at 1.1407 down .0069

USD – BRL at 3.9180 up .0116

Nikkei closes up 2.11% , up 2.8% on week

Hang Seng closes up 1.34%

Shanghai Index closes up 1.3%

October flash manufacturing PMIs

  • Euro zone at 52.0 , expecting 51.7 vs. Sept final of 52.0
  • German at 51.6, expecting 51.8 vs. Sept final of 52.3
  • France at 50.7 , expecting 50.2 vs. Sept final of 50.6

China grain markets closes – soybeans up 11, corn unchanged, soy meal down 24, palm oil down 18, and bean oil down 14

Malaysian palm oil market closes down 45

Good soybean demand from China continues.

  • China mostly buying November soy bean cargoes due to strong crush margins
  • Some analysts saying US shipments in October could be 8.3 million tons
  • Hearing US vessel line up to China yesterday showed there has been 4.915 MMT of beans loaded in October

Thailand bought 125,000 tons of US wheat for December shipment , this week

Philippines bought 60,000 tons of US wheat for Jan-Feb shipment , this week

Malaysia bought 40,000 tons of US wheat  for December shipment, this week

South Korea CJ bought 50,000 tons of Australian wheat for May shipment

South Korea CJ seeks 51,100 tons of US wheat for March shipment

Argentina’s September soybean crush was 3.815 million tons up 500,000 tons from Sept 2014

Forecasts calling for rain relief in dry Brazilian crop belts

The Philippines need to immediately import an additional 1.0 MMT of rice for stocks , due to El Nino dry weather and storms cut production.

European Daylight Saving Time will end on Sunday October 25th, Daylight Saving Time in US does not end until Sunday November 1st

Receipt Registrations as of yesterday afternoon:

  • Wheat = 648

o   99 wheat receipts canceled yesterday afternoon

  • 45 out of Bunge Finley, TN
  • 44 out of Bunge Blytheville, AR
  • Oats = 13
  • Corn = 642
  • Ethanol = 6
  • DDGs = 0
  • Beans = 47

o   22 bean receipts were canceled yesterday afternoon

  • Out of ADM Lacon , IL
  • Bean oil = 3,024
  • Soymeal = 0
  • Rice = 2,616
  • KC wheat = 223
  • Minneapolis wheat =  674

Open interest as of yesterday’s close:

  • Total corn – 1,313,925 open, up 2,625
  • Total soybeans – 732,697 open, down 5,578
  • Total soymeal – 421,779 open, up 1,325
  • Total bean oil – 426,725 open, down 1,044
  • Total wheat – 382,991 open , up 2,217
  • Total KC wheat – 194,113 open, up 554

Upcoming reports/events:  

  • Weekly COT report comes out today at 230 pm CST
  • Argentina president elections on Sunday
  • SGS and Intertek will estimate Malaysia’s Oct 1-25th palm oil exports on Sunday.  
  • Weekly US export inspections report comes out on Monday at 10 am CST
  • Weekly US crop progress report comes out Monday at 3 pm CST. Expecting

o   Corn harvest 74-77% complete

o   Bean harvest 86-90% complete

  • CEC to estimate South Africa’s corn area on Tuesday.

o   Based on a Reuters survey South Africa’s 2016 corn area estimated at 2.63 MH vs. 2015 area of 2.65 MH

  • FOMC two day policy meeting is Tuesday and Wednesday
  • Fed announcement Wednesday at 1 pm CST.
  • Position day for November futures is Thursday October 29th. Traders should be out of long positions by the close or risk delivery
  • Rogers roll starts Thursday October 29th . Rogers roll runs for three days. They will be rolling long December bean oil and soy meal positions into January and will be rolling long wheat and corn positions to March.
  • BOJ meets on Friday October 30th

o   Expectations BOJ will take measures to boost economy

  • First notice day for November futures is Wednesday October 30th
  • Effective Sunday November 1st , for trade date Monday, November 2nd CBOT will reset price limits for grain and oilseed futures. New price limits will be

o   Corn – .25 cents per bushel vs. .30 cents currently

o   Soybeans – .60 cents per bushel vs. .70 cents currently

o   Chicago wheat – .35 cents per bushel vs. .40 cents currently

o   KC wheat – .35 cents per bushel vs. .40 cents currently

o   Bean oil – 200 tics unchanged from current limit

o   Soy meal – $20 per ton vs. $25 currently

o   Oats – .20 cents per bushel unchanged from current limit

o   Rice – .90 cents vs. .75 cents currently

  • ADM to release third quarter financial results on Tuesday November 3rd
  • Goldman Sachs / UBS roll begins Friday November 6th . GS /UBS roll runs for five days. They will be rolling long December corn and wheat positions to March.

o   GS / UBS has already rolled their long December bean oil and soy meal positions to January during the November soybean roll.

  • US EPA reaffirms plan to finalize biofuels plan by the end of November
  • ABARES come out on Tuesday December 1st with their Australian crop estimate updates
  • OPEC to meet in early December

Data sources: Dow Jones , Bloomberg, Reuters , DTN news, barchart.com, CME Group and NYSE