News From The Grain Floor 10/22/15

USDA announced 463,000 tons of US beans sold to unknown for ‘15/16 shipment

Overnight closes

  • SX up 6 at 911 ¼
  • SF up 5 ½ at 915
  • CZ up a ½ at 381 ¼
  • WZ up 2 ¾ at 497 ½
  • KC WZ up 3 ¼ at 483 ¾
  • MWZ up 3 at 514 ¾
  • SMZ up 2.20 at 312.70
  • BOZ up 18 at 2936

Overnight volume

  • SX 27,754
  • SF 21,386
  • CZ 20,674
  • WZ 8,353
  • KC WZ 1,156
  • MWZ 394
  • SMZ 5,911
  • BOZ 9,867

Overnight option volume

  • Corn 4,852
  • Wheat 428
  • Beans 2,777
  • Meal 94
  • Bean oil 176

Total EOO’s cleared from previous session

Contract Year Month

Product Desc

P/C Ind

Strike Price

Ex Pit Volume – CME Group

201512

CORN OPTIONS

P

420

95

201512

CHICAGO SRW WHEAT OPTIONS

P

520

86

201512

CORN OPTIONS

P

400

39

201512

CHICAGO SRW WHEAT OPTIONS

P

530

19

201512

CORN OPTIONS

P

410

19

201512

CHICAGO SRW WHEAT OPTIONS

P

540

4

201603

SOYBEAN OPTIONS

P

880

2

Funds

 

COT

COT

COT

 

 

 

 

 

 

Current

 

6-Oct

13-Oct

to COT

14-Oct

15-Oct

16-Oct

19-Oct

20-Oct

21-Oct

Estimate

Corn

52065

22771

-29294

-8000

-5000

5000

-6000

8000

9000

25771

Wheat

-54371

-59149

-4778

-5000

-3000

-6000

-5000

4000

2000

-72149

Soybeans

-29940

-5386

24554

-4000

-6000

-7000

-7000

7000

9000

-13386

Soymeal

28771

44151

15380

-2000

-2000

-2000

-2000

-2000

2000

36151

Soyoil

853

6757

5904

0

-2000

0

-3000

3000

5000

9757

News

Dec Euro at 1.1207 down .0137

USD – BRL at 3.9455 up .0051

Nikkei closes down .64%

Hang Seng closes down .63%

Shanghai Index closes up 1.4%

ECB policy meeting this morning

  • ECB leaves interest rates unchanged, as expected.

Weekly US jobless claims report came out this morning at +3K to 259K , expecting 265K

China grain markets closes – soybeans up 15, corn unchanged, meal down 6, palm oil up 38, and bean oil up 62.

Malaysian palm oil market closes up 4

Good soybean and soybean oil demand.

Yesterday China asked about prices for November soybean shipments from the US Gulf and PNW

Japan bought 134,352 tons of food wheat for Nov-Dec shipment . Breakdown:

  • 31,800 tons of US western white wheat
  • 31,180 tons of US HRW wheat
  • 36,460 tons of US dark northern spring wheat
  • 34,912 tons of Canadian western spring wheat

South Korea CJ seeks 50,000 Australian wheat for May shipment

Industry analysts said China could buy about 50% less corn for state reserves in ‘15/16 season than in ‘14/15 as local governments offer subsidies to encourage processors to use more domestic grain.

Head of Russia’s Grain Union said 30% of Russia’s winter grain area is currently at risk due to dry weather .

Much need rains overnight in parts of the US Plains, Southeast Australia , and Black Sea region .

Rains in the forecast for North and Central Brazil next week.

Weekly US export sales report

  • Wheat ‘15/16 357,500 ‘16/17 1,700 tons (expecting 300-500,000 tons)
  • Corn ‘15/16 248,000 tons (expecting 450-650,000 tons)
  • Beans ‘15/16 2.03 million tons (expecting 1.2-1.8 million tons)
  • Meal ‘15/16 264,400 ‘16/17 4,700 tons (expecting 150-300,000 tons)
  • Bean oil ‘15/16 24,800 tons (expecting 10-60,000 tons)

Export highlights

  • Wheat – Net sales of 357,500 metric tons for delivery in marketing year 2015/2016 were down 22 percent from the previous week, but up 29 percent from the prior 4-week average. Increases were reported for the Philippines (133,900 MT, including 53,000 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 1,300 MT), unknown destinations (44,800 MT), South Korea (39,000 MT), Mexico (30,800 MT), Japan (25,500 MT), and Chile (22,100 MT). Reductions were reported for Barbados (9,900 MT). Net sales of 1,700 MT for 2016/2017 resulted as increases for Costa Rica (5,200 MT), unknown destinations (1,600 MT), and Italy (100 MT), were partially offset by reductions for Barbados (5,200 MT). Exports of 211,900 MT were down 43 percent from the previous week and 60 percent from the prior 4-week average. The primary destinations were the Philippines (80,800 MT), Taiwan (56,800 MT), Nigeria (26,000 MT), and Japan (25,400 MT).
  • Corn – Net sales of 248,000 MT for 2015/2016 were down 59 percent from the previous week and 57 percent from the prior 4-week average. Increases reported for Japan (103,500 MT, including 43,500 MT switched from unknown destinations), Colombia (73,400 MT, including 30,000 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 5,000 MT), Mexico (40,700 MT), Peru (28,000 MT), and Honduras (17,700 MT), were partially offset by reductions for unknown destinations (25,700 MT) and the French West Indies (6,500 MT). Exports of 409,800 MT were down 33 percent from the previous week and 39 percent from the prior 4-week average. The primary destinations were Mexico (236,700 MT), Colombia (77,500 MT), Japan (43,500 MT), Peru (29,700 MT), Taiwan (8,100 MT), and Canada (7,000 MT)
  • Beans – Net sales of 2,030,800 MT for 2015/2016 were up 43 percent from the previous week and 26 percent from the prior 4-week average. Increases were reported for China (2,214,000 MT, including 943,100 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 238,100 MT), Mexico (177,600 MT), the Netherlands (92,900 MT, including 91,500 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 600 MT), Spain (72,800 MT, including 66,400 MT switched from unknown destinations), and Saudi Arabia (66,000 MT). Reductions were reported for unknown destinations (612,000 MT) and Japan (122,600 MT). Net sales of 1,600 MT for 2016/2017 were reported for Japan. Exports of 2,330,400 MT–a marketing-year high–were up 49 percent from the previous week and up noticeably from the prior 4-week average. The primary destinations were China (1,848,900 MT), Mexico (200,500 MT), the Netherlands (92,900 MT), Spain (72,800 MT), and Tunisia (33,000 MT).
  • Meal – Net sales of 264,400 MT for 2015/2016 were up 17 percent from the previous week. Increases were reported for Mexico (101,400 MT), unknown destinations (34,900 MT), Saudi Arabia (25,000 MT), Libya (23,500 MT), Canada (18,800 MT), and Nicaragua (16,000 MT). Reductions were reported for Venezuela (7,300 MT) and the French West Indies (3,800 MT). Net sales of 4,700 MT for 2016/2017 reported for Mexico (4,800 MT), were partially offset by reductions for Canada (100 MT). Exports of 129,700 MT were primarily to Thailand (49,500 MT), Mexico (47,400 MT), Canada (16,300 MT), Colombia (10,500 MT), and Jamaica (2,000 MT)
  • Bean oil – Net sales of 24,800 MT for 2015/2016 were down 53 percent from the previous week. Increases were reported for the Dominican Republic (12,100 MT), Guatemala (4,400 MT), the United Arab Emirates (4,000 MT), Mexico (3,700 MT), and Canada (500 MT). Exports of 23,300 MT were primarily to Venezuela (10,000 MT), the United Arab Emirates (4,000 MT), Mexico (3,700 MT), and Jamaica (3,500 MT).

Moving averages:

  • Nov bean 20 day 892  
  • Nov bean 50 day 886 ½         
  • Nov bean 100 day 926
  • Jan bean 20 day 896
  • Jan bean 50 day 890 ½
  • Jan bean 100 day 931
  • Dec corn 20 day 385 
  • Dec corn 50 day 380 ¼      
  • Dec corn 100 day 389 ¼  
  • Dec corn 200 day 395 ½
  • Dec wheat 20 day 507  
  • Dec wheat 50 day 498
  • Dec wheat 100 day 519 ½    
  • Dec KC wheat 50 day 492
  • Dec Minneapolis wheat 20 day 524 ¼
  • Dec Minneapolis wheat 50 day 519 ½  
  • Dec meal 20 day 308.50
  • Dec meal 50 day 310.20
  • Dec meal 100 day 317.40
  • Dec meal 200 day 315.30
  • Dec bean oil 20 day 2834
  • Dec bean oil 100 day 3009

Receipt Registrations as of yesterday afternoon: – no changes

  • Wheat = 747
  • Oats = 13
  • Corn = 642
  • Ethanol = 6
  • DDGs = 0
  • Beans = 69
  • Bean oil = 3,024
  • Soymeal = 0
  • Rice = 2,616
  • KC wheat = 223
  • Minneapolis wheat =  674

Open interest as of yesterday’s close:

  • Total corn – 1,311,561 open, down 8,956
  • Total soybeans – 738,260 open, up 4,561
  • Total soymeal – 420,490 open , up 1,284
  • Total bean oil – 427,806 open, up 4,254
  • Total wheat – 380,848 open, down 4,074
  • Total KC wheat – 193,562 open, up 1,294

Upcoming reports/events:  

  • Weekly Nat Gas storage report comes out today at 930 am CST, expecting +89 BCF
  • Euro Zone flash October PMI comes out on tomorrow morning.
  • Last trading day for November options is tomorrow. Grain options expire at 115 pm CST.
  • Weekly COT report comes out tomorrow at 230 pm CST
  • Argentina president elections on Sunday
  • SGS and Intertek will estimate Malaysia’s Oct 1-25th palm oil exports on Sunday.  
  • FOMC two day policy meeting is Tuesday and Wednesday October 27-28.
  • Fed announcement Wednesday October 28th at 1 pm CST.
  • Position day for November futures is Thursday October 29th. Traders should be out of long positions by the close or risk delivery
  • BOJ meets on Friday October 30th

o   Expectations BOJ will take measures to boost economy

  • First notice day for November futures is Wednesday October 30th
  • Effective Sunday November 1st , for trade date Monday, November 2nd CBOT will reset price limits for grain and oilseed futures. New price limits will be

o   Corn – .25 cents per bushel vs. .30 cents currently

o   Soybeans – .60 cents per bushel vs. .70 cents currently

o   Chicago wheat – .35 cents per bushel vs. .40 cents currently

o   KC wheat – .35 cents per bushel vs. .40 cents currently

o   Bean oil – 200 tics unchanged from current limit

o   Soy meal – $20 per ton vs. $25 currently

o   Oats – .20 cents per bushel unchanged from current limit

o   Rice – .90 cents vs. .75 cents currently

  • ADM to release third quarter financial results on Tuesday November 3rd
  • US EPA reaffirms plan to finalize biofuels plan by the end of November
  • ABARES come out on Tuesday December 1st with their Australian crop estimate updates
  • OPEC to meet in early December

Data sources: Dow Jones , Bloomberg, Reuters , DTN news, barchart.com, CME Group and NYSE