News From The Grain Floor 10/21/15

USDA announced 20,000 tons of US bean oil sold to unknown for ‘15/16 shipment

USDA announced 20,000 tons of US bean oil sold to China for ‘15/16 shipment

Overnight closes

  • SX up 3 at 899
  • SF up 2 ¾ at 903 ¾
  • CZ unchanged at 376 ¾
  • CH down ½ at 386 ¾
  • WZ up ¾ at 492
  • KC WZ up 2 at 478 ½
  • MWZ up 1 ¾ at 510 ¾
  • SMZ up .80 at 310.30
  • BOZ up 23 at 2889

Overnight volume

  • SX 27,739
  • SF 16,666
  • CZ 57,967
  • CH 44,204

o   Dec / March corn spreads volume overnight was 32,764.  Dec corn outright volume was 14,395.

  • WZ 7,080
  • KC WZ 1,060
  • MWZ 296
  • SMZ 7,019
  • BOZ 16,894

Overnight option volume

  • Corn 5,267

o   1,792 Dec corn 380 calls traded overnight at 7-8.125

  • Wheat 510
  • Beans 3,552
  • Meal 325
  • Bean oil 53

Total EOO’s cleared from previous session

Contract Year Month

Product

P/C

Strike Price

Ex Pit Volume – CME Group

201603

CORN OPTIONS

P

450

1,100

201512

CORN OPTIONS

P

420

161

201512

CHICAGO SRW WHEAT OPTIONS

P

550

149

201512

CHICAGO SRW WHEAT OPTIONS

P

560

135

201512

CHICAGO SRW WHEAT OPTIONS

P

530

86

201512

CHICAGO SRW WHEAT OPTIONS

P

520

71

201512

CORN OPTIONS

P

410

37

201512

CHICAGO SRW WHEAT OPTIONS

P

510

16

201603

CORN OPTIONS

P

380

4

Funds

 

COT

COT

COT

 

 

 

 

 

Current

 

6-Oct

13-Oct

to COT

14-Oct

15-Oct

16-Oct

19-Oct

20-Oct

Estimate

Corn

52065

22771

-29294

-8000

-5000

5000

-6000

8000

16771

Wheat

-54371

-59149

-4778

-5000

-3000

-6000

-5000

4000

-74149

Soybeans

-29940

-5386

24554

-4000

-6000

-7000

-7000

7000

-22386

Soymeal

28771

44151

15380

-2000

-2000

-2000

-2000

-2000

34151

Soyoil

853

6757

5904

0

-2000

0

-3000

3000

4757

News

Dec Euro at 1.1355 up .0010

USD – BRL at 3.9327 up .0274

Nikkei closes up 1.91%

Hang Seng closes down .37%

Shanghai Index closes down 3.1% , worst daily performance in five weeks.

OPEC and non-OPEC countries met in Vienna today

Weekly API energy inventory report came out yesterday at 330 pm CST

  • Crude a build of 7.1 MB, expecting a build of 3.9 MB
  • Distillates a draw of 2.6 MB, expecting a draw of 1.3 MB

ECB meets tomorrow

  • Uncertainty over whether the ECB will ease policy further at Thursday’s meeting  

China grain markets closes – soybeans down 3, corn up 7, soymeal down 18, palm oil up 42, and bean oil up 18

Malaysian palm oil market closes up 47

Hearing China bought 5-8 US bean cargoes so far this week , from the Gulf and PNW for November shipment

Hearing India seeking / buying Argentine bean oil this week

Deral said Parana’s bean crop is 51% planted vs. 36% a week ago vs. average of 49%

Deral said Parana’s first corn crop is 82% planted vs. 76% a week ago

November options expire on Friday. The $9 strike has the largest open interest and the market seems to be drawn to that strike as we head for Friday.

Concerns about dryness in Black Sea and Australia

Good rains in forecast for US Plains starting today

Rains in forecast for northern Brazil by weekend – early next week

Much needed rains in forecast for Black Sea region over the next week

Rains in forecast for southeast Australia

China customs data – China’s September imports

  • Soybeans – 7,255,491 tons up 44.27% from a year ago

o   5,130,244 tons from Brazil up 52.26% from a year ago

o   1,619,825 tons from Argentina up 65.26% from a year ago

  • Rapeseed – 295,496 tons down 40.27% from a year ago
  • Rapeseed oil – 26,440 tons up 29.54% from a year ago
  • Rapeseed meal – 18,818 tons down 18.2% from a year ago
  • Bean oil – 144,014 tons down 18.2% from a year ago
  • Soy meal – 3,016 tons up 503% from a year ago
  • Palm Oil – 568,565 tons up 95.7% from a year ago
  • Wheat – 206,599 tons up 54.59% from a year ago
  • Barley – 1,295,254 tons up 71.08% from a year ago
  • Corn – 169,711 tons , up 729% from a year ago
  • Rice – 357,744 tons up 98.74% from a year ago
  • DDGS – 933,537 tons up 73.3% from a year ago

China customs data – China’s Jan-Sept 2015 imports

  • Soybeans – 59,649,132 tons up 13.09% from a year ago

o   33,039,973 tons from Brazil up 13.09% from a year ago

o   17,000,755 tons from the US down 1.88% from a year ago

o   6,917,592 tons from Argentina up 50.22% from a year ago

  • Rapeseed – 3,417,099 tons down 12.53% from a year ago
  • Rapeseed oil – 558,597 tons down 12.2% from a year ago
  • Rapeseed meal – 117,478 tons down 50.81% from a year ago
  • Bean oil – 626,433 tons down 36.63% from a year ago
  • Soy meal – 50,632 tons up 213% from a year ago
  • Palm oil – 4,302,850 tons up 9.45% from a year ago
  • Wheat – 2,245,889 tons down 20.92% from a year ago
  • Barley – 8,721,274 tons up 104.02% from a year ago
  • Corn – 4,533,964 tons up 180% from a year ago
  • Rice – 2,314,198 tons up 26.7% from a year ago
  • DDGSS

Moving averages:

  • Nov bean 20 day 889 ½  
  • Nov bean 50 day 886 ½         
  • Nov bean 100 day 926
  • Jan bean 20 day 893 ½  
  • Jan bean 50 day 890 ½
  • Jan bean 100 day 931 ¼   
  • Dec corn 20 day 384 ½  
  • Dec corn 50 day 379 ¾     
  • Dec corn 100 day 389 ¼  
  • Dec wheat 20 day 506 ½  
  • Dec wheat 50 day 497 ¾   
  • Dec Minneapolis wheat 50 day 519 ½  
  • Dec meal 20 day 308.00
  • Dec meal 50 day 310.20
  • Dec meal 100 day 317.20
  • Dec meal 200 day 315.40
  • Dec bean oil 20 day 2822

Receipt Registrations as of yesterday afternoon:

  • Wheat = 747

o   14 wheat receipts were canceled yesterday afternoon

  • Out of Cargill Hickman, KY
  • Oats = 13
  • Corn = 642
  • Ethanol = 6
  • DDGs = 0
  • Beans = 69
  • Bean oil = 3,024
  • Soymeal = 0
  • Rice = 2,616
  • KC wheat = 223
  • Minneapolis wheat =  674

Upcoming reports/events:  

  • Weekly DOE energy inventory report comes out today at 930 am CST. Expecting

o   Crude a build of 3.5 MB

o   Gas a draw of 1.0 MB

o   Distillates a draw of 1.2 MB

  • Weekly US ethanol plant production report comes out today at 930 am CST
  • ECB meets tomorrow
  • Weekly US jobless claims report comes out tomorrow at 730 am CST
  • Weekly US export sales report comes out tomorrow at 730 am CST
  • Weekly Nat Gas storage report comes out tomorrow at 930 am CST
  • Euro Zone flash October PMI comes out on Friday morning.
  • Last trading day for November options is Friday. Grain options expire at 115 pm CST.
  • Argentina president elections on Sunday

o   Peronist presidential candidate Scioli , who is leading in the polls, may favor a Argentina export tax cut of 5%, Argentina presidential elections are on October 25th.

o   Argentina’s leading opposition candidate Macri told farm groups yesterday he would lower soybean export taxes and lift quotas on wheat and corn shipments

  • FOMC two day policy meeting is Tuesday and Wednesday October 27-28.
  • Fed announcement Wednesday October 28th at 1 pm CST.
  • Position day for November futures is Thursday October 29th. Traders should be out of long positions by the close or risk delivery
  • BOJ meets on Friday October 30th

o   Expectations BOJ will take measures to boost economy

  • First notice day for November futures is Wednesday October 30th
  • ADM to release third quarter financial results on Tuesday November 3rd
  • US EPA reaffirms plan to finalize biofuels plan by the end of November
  • ABARES come out on Tuesday December 1st with their Australian crop estimate updates
  • OPEC to meet in early December

Data sources: Dow Jones , Bloomberg, Reuters , DTN news, barchart.com, CME Group and NYSE