News From The Grain Floor 10/20/15

USDA announced 132,000 tons of US beans sold to China for ‘15/16 shipment

Overnight closes

  • SX up 5 at 896
  • SF up 5 ¼ at 900 ¾
  • CZ up 2 at 375
  • WZ up 2 ¾ at 488 ½
  • KC WZ up 3 ¼ at 475 ½
  • MWZ up 1 ¼ at 505 ¾
  • SMZ up 2.60 at 313.40
  • BOZ up 15 at 2829

Overnight volume

  • SX 22,644
  • SF 14,076
  • CZ 12,971
  • WZ 7,812
  • KC WZ 1,290
  • MWZ333
  • SMZ 5,653
  • BOZ 9,127

Overnight option volume

  • Corn 3,311
  • Wheat 1,195
  • Beans 4,931
  • 1,100 Jan bean 800 puts traded overnight at about 2 cents
  • Meal 518
  • Bean oil 95

Total EOO’s cleared from previous session

Contract Year Month

Product

P/C

Strike Price

Ex Pit Volume – CME Group

201603

CORN OPTIONS

P

450

500

201512

CHICAGO SRW WHEAT OPTIONS

P

520

119

201512

CORN OPTIONS

P

410

103

201512

CHICAGO SRW WHEAT OPTIONS

P

510

4

201512

CHICAGO SRW WHEAT OPTIONS

P

530

1

Funds

 

COT

COT

COT

 

 

 

 

Current

 

6-Oct

13-Oct

to COT

14-Oct

15-Oct

16-Oct

19-Oct

Estimate

Corn

52065

22771

-29294

-8000

-5000

5000

-6000

8771

Wheat

-54371

-59149

-4778

-5000

-3000

-6000

-5000

-78149

Soybeans

-29940

-5386

24554

-4000

-6000

-7000

-7000

-29386

Soymeal

28771

44151

15380

-2000

-2000

-2000

-2000

36151

Soyoil

853

6757

5904

0

-2000

0

-3000

1757

News

Dec Euro at 1.1369 up .0034

USD – BRL at 3.8687 down .0182

Nikkei closes up .42%

Hang Seng closes down .4%

Shanghai Index closes up 1.1%

OPEC and non-OPEC countries meet in Vienna tomorrow

ECB meets on Thursday

  • Uncertainty over whether the ECB will ease policy further at Thursday’s meeting  

BOJ meets on Friday October 30th

  • Expectations BOJ will take measures to boost economy.

China grain markets closes – soybeans down 8, corn down 12, meal down 27, palm oil down 84 and bean oil down 74

Malaysian palm oil market closes up 46

SGS estimated Malaysia’s Oct 1-20th palm oil exports at 941,134 tons down 11.8% from a month ago

Intertek estimated Malaysia’s Oct 1-20th palm oil exports at 929,837 tons down 12.9% from a month ago

Indonesia Palm Oil Board estimated Indonesia’s 2016 palm oil production at 33.0 MMT vs. previous estimate of 33.5 MMT and vs. 2015 production estimate of 31.5 MMT

Hearing China bought at least ten cargoes of beans since Thursday

Japan seeks 134,352 tons of food wheat for Nov-Dec shipment . Breakdown:

  • 31,800 tons of US western white wheat
  • 31,180 tons of US HRW wheat
  • 36,460 tons of US dark northern spring wheat
  • 34,912 tons of Canadian western spring wheat

Safras e Mercado said Brazil’s first corn crop is 53.8% planted vs. 41.9% a year ago

Over the weekend there was a fire at a soybean crushing plant in Sioux City, IA. Expecting the plant will be inactive for at least seven days.

Good harvest weather in US Midwest.

Rains in forecast for US Plains by the end of the week

Much need rains in forecast for Ukraine and Russia this week

Dryness and above normal temperatures in Australia may hurt wheat production

Forecasts call for rains in center west Brazil by the weekend

Analysts expecting El Nino will lower palm oil production in Indonesia and Malaysia

CME Group plans to raise transaction fees on a host of products starting January 1st , pending regulatory approval.

Oil World updates

  • 2015-16 world exports of the 4 major veg oils to increase by 2.3 million tons vs. an average increase of 3.1 million tons the last ten years
  • Expected growth of world palm oil exports in 2015-16 of 1 million tons only half of the average increase
  • 2015-16 Ukraine sun seed crop may surpass a record 11 million tons, due to very high yields
  • Canadian canola disposals from Aug 1 to the first week of Oct were a record 2.98 million tons vs. 2.86 million tons last year
  • July-Sep 2015 Indian soy oil imports were up 32%, palm oil imports were up 18%

Weekly US crop progress report from yesterday

Corn

  • Condition – 68% good to excellent , unchanged from a week ago and vs. 74% a year ago
  • Harvested – 59% (expecting 55-60% complete) vs. 42% a week ago and vs. 54% five year average

Beans

  • Harvested 77% (expecting 70-75% complete) vs. 62% a week ago and vs. 68% five year average
  • Dropping leaves 96% vs. 92% a week ago and vs. 96% five year average

Winter wheat

  • Planted 76% vs. 64% a week ago and vs. 77% five year average
  • Emerged 49% vs. 33% a week ago and vs. 49% five year average

Rice

  • Harvested 95% vs. 88% a week ago and vs. 87% five year average

Cotton

  • Harvested 31% vs. 22% a week ago and vs. 32% five year average

Moving averages:

  • Nov bean 20 day 887 ¾
  • Nov bean 50 day 887 ¾        
  • Nov bean 100 day 926
  • Jan bean 20 day 891 ¾  
  • Jan bean 50 day 892
  • Jan bean 100 day 931 ¼   
  • Dec corn 20 day 385
  • Dec corn 50 day 380    
  • Dec corn 100 day 389 ¼  
  • Dec wheat 20 day 507 ¼
  • Dec wheat 50 day 498 ¼  
  • Dec Minneapolis wheat 50 day 520
  • Dec meal 20 day 307.70
  • Dec meal 50 day 310.70
  • Dec meal 100 day 317.00
  • Dec meal 200 day 315.50
  • Dec bean oil 20 day 2807
  • Dec bean oil 50 day 2779

Receipt Registrations as of yesterday afternoon: – no changes

  • Wheat = 761
  • Oats = 13
  • Corn = 642
  • Ethanol = 6
  • DDGs = 0
  • Beans = 69
  • Bean oil = 3,024
  • Soymeal = 0
  • Rice = 2,616
  • KC wheat = 223
  • Minneapolis wheat =  674

Open interest as of yesterday’s close:

  • Total corn – 1,315,157 open, up 10,765
  • Total soybeans – 734,363 open, down 6,497
  • Total soymeal – 415,942 open, up 2,329
  • Total bean oil – 423,679 open, up 3,879
  • Total wheat – 382,536 open, up 1,403
  • Total KC wheat – 191,113 open, up 4,755

Upcoming reports/events:  

  • Weekly API energy inventory report comes out today at 330 pm CST.
  • Weekly DOE energy inventory report comes out tomorrow at 930 am CST. Expecting

o   Crude a build of 3.5 MB

o   Gas a draw of 1.0 MB

o   Distillates a draw of 1.2 MB

  • Weekly US ethanol plant production report comes out tomorrow at 930 am CST
  • Euro Zone flash October PMI comes out on Friday morning.
  • Last trading day for November options is Friday. Grain options expire at 115 pm CST.
  • Argentina president elections on Sunday

o   Peronist presidential candidate Scioli , who is leading in the polls, may favor a Argentina export tax cut of 5%, Argentina presidential elections are on October 25th.

o   Argentina’s leading opposition candidate Macri told farm groups yesterday he would lower soybean export taxes and lift quotas on wheat and corn shipments

  • FOMC two day policy meeting is Tuesday and Wednesday October 27-28.
  • Fed announcement Wednesday October 28th at 1 pm CST.
  • Position day for November futures is Thursday October 29th. Traders should be out of long positions by the close or risk delivery
  • First notice day for November futures is Wednesday October 30th
  • ADM to release third quarter financial results on Tuesday November 3rd
  • US EPA reaffirms plan to finalize biofuels plan by the end of November
  • ABARES come out on Tuesday December 1st with their Australian crop estimate updates
  • OPEC to meet in early December

Data sources: Dow Jones , Bloomberg, Reuters , DTN news, barchart.com, CME Group and NYSE