News From The Grain Floor 10/19/15

USDA announced 238,000 tons of US beans sold to China for ‘15/16 shipment

Overnight closes

  • SX down 1 ¼ at 897
  • SF down 1 at 901
  • CZ down 2 ¼ at 374 ½
  • WZ down 3 ¾ at 488 ½
  • KC WZ down 4 ½ at 479
  • MWZ down 1 ½ at 510 ¾  
  • SMZ up .30 at 312.30
  • BOZ down .23 at 2837

Overnight volume

  • SX 22,790
  • SF 11,587
  • CZ 17,379
  • WZ 10,870
  • KC WZ 1,122
  • MWZ 404
  • SMZ 4,792
  • BOZ 6,587

Overnight option volume

  • Corn 1,203
  • Wheat 2,656
  • Beans 4,283
  • Meal 186
  • Bean oil 918

Total EOO’s cleared from previous session

Contract Year Month

Product

P/C

Strike Price

Ex Pit Volume – CME Group

201603

CORN OPTIONS

P

450

1,000

201512

CORN OPTIONS

P

410

30

201512

CORN OPTIONS

P

420

4

Funds/COT

The COT confirmed the recent beans buying vs. corn selling as the corn net long was reduced 29k while the bean short decreased 25k lots. The corn change came mainly from longs getting out while beans saw new longs (17k) and short covering (8k). Also of note the meal long increased 16k (new longs ) and short covering in bean oil continued with funds now long that product.

 

COT

COT

COT

 

 

 

Current

COT Record

 

COT Record

 

 

6-Oct

13-Oct

to COT

14-Oct

15-Oct

16-Oct

Estimate

Long

 

Short

 

Corn

52065

22771

-29294

-8000

-5000

5000

14771

9/28/2010

372756

-240854

10/29/2013

Wheat

-54371

-59149

-4778

-5000

-3000

-6000

-73149

10/24/2006

30146

-110792

5/5/2015

Soybeans

-29940

-5386

24554

-4000

-6000

-7000

-22386

5/1/2012

224822

-92991

5/26/2015

Soymeal

28771

44151

15380

-2000

-2000

-2000

38151

11/11/2014

70115

-22711

4/14/2015

Soyoil

853

6757

5904

0

-2000

0

4757

4/10/2007

81193

-80562

1/21/2014

News

Dec Euro at 1.1347 down .0040

USD – BRL at 3.9077 down .0165

Nikkei closes down .88%

Hang Seng closes up .04%

Shanghai Index closes down .1%

China’s 3rd quarter GDP +6.9% , below 7% for the first time since 2009, expecting +6.8%

China’s Sept industrial output +5.7% , expecting +5.9%, and vs. +6.1% in August

China grain markets closes – soybeans down 8, corn up 4, soy meal down 22, palm oil down 30 , bean oil down 6.

Malaysian palm oil market closes down 28

January beans are officially spot month (top step). As of Friday afternoon open interest in November beans were 243,300 contacts open and January beans had 204,300 contracts open.

Reports of good soybean demand from China continues.

  • China buying/seeking US beans for Dec-Jan shipment

Hearing Taiwan bought 3 cargoes of South American corn for Feb-April shipment

South Korea CJ bought 61,000 tons of US wheat for Feb shipment

South Korea Daehan bought 50,000 tons of Australian wheat for April shipment

South Korea KFMC bought 61,300 tons of Australian and US wheat for Feb-March shipment

Indonesia canceled tender for soymeal for December

Mexico, Japan , and Egypt seeking corn.

Mexico seeking soybeans.

China did not sell any corn at last week’s auctions. They offered a total of 5.4 MMT of corn on Thursday and Friday.

Hearing US soymeal sales are down 37% from a year ago vs. down 38.8% a week ago.

EPA’s September RIN Generation report came out on Friday

  • Production was 161.4 million gallons vs. 185.7 million gallons in August
  • Bean oil usage for bio fuel in September was estimated at 440 million pounds

o   ‘14/15 bean oil usage for bio fuel could be up to 5.1 billion pounds  

Hearing Brazil will raise its bio mandate to 8% from 7% effective January 1st and may raise it to 9% by July 2016.

IMEA said on Friday Mato Grosso soybean planting is 14.3% complete vs. 6.1% a week ago, vs. 9.3% a year ago, and vs. historical average of 18.0%

Some analysts are estimating India’s ‘15/16 soybean crop to be as low as 8.0 MMT vs. USDA estimate of 11.0 MMT and vs. ‘14/15 crop of 9.0 MMT

Palm oil production concerns in Indonesia

Chief commodity analyst for ABARES estimated Australia’s ‘15/16 wheat production at 24.0 MMT vs. ABARES last estimate of 25.28 MMT and vs. USDA estimate of 27.0 MMT

Russia’s statistics agency said Russia’s October 1st grain stocks were 43.8 MMT down -.9% from a year ago

Much needed rains in forecast for central Ukraine and southern Russia the next 10 days

Much needed rains in forecast for US Plains this week

COPA said for the week ending October 14th Canadian crushers crushed 168,861 tons of canola , down 8.6% from a week earlier

COPA said for the week ending October 14th Canadian crushers crushed 33,898 tons of soybeans up 11.2% from a week earlier.

Moving averages:

  • Nov bean 20 day 886 ½
  • Nov bean 50 day 890       
  • Nov bean 100 day 926 ¼  
  • Jan bean 20 day 890 ½
  • Jan bean 50 day 894
  • Jan bean 100 day 931 ½  
  • Dec corn 20 day 385 ¼   
  • Dec corn 50 day 380 ½     
  • Dec corn 100 day 389   
  • Dec wheat 50 day 499
  • Dec KC wheat 20 day 499 ½
  • Dec KC wheat 50 day 494 ¼      
  • Dec Minneapolis wheat 50 day 521
  • Dec meal 20 day 307.30
  • Dec meal 50 day 311.30
  • Dec meal 100 day 316.80
  • Dec meal 200 day 315.60
  • Dec bean oil 20 day 2799
  • Dec bean oil 50 day 2785

Receipt Registrations as of Friday afternoon:

  • Wheat = 761

o   22 wheat receipts were canceled Friday afternoon

  • Out of Gavilon Grain, LLC. Maceo, KY  
  • Oats = 13
  • Corn = 642
  • Ethanol = 6
  • DDGs = 0
  • Beans = 69
  • Bean oil = 3,024
  • Soymeal = 0

o   78 meal receipts were canceled Friday afternoon

  • Out of Owensboro Grain Company Owensboro KY.
  • Rice = 2,616
  • KC wheat = 223
  • Minneapolis wheat =  674

Open interest as of Friday’s close:

  • Total corn – 1,304,412 open, up 4,547
  • Total soybeans – 745,660 open, down 579
  • Total soymeal – 413,637 open, up 1,427
  • Total bean oil – 419,833 open, down 488
  • Total wheat – 381,828 open , up 11,418
  • Total KC wheat – 186,614 open, up 2,519

Upcoming reports/events:  

  • Weekly US export inspections report comes out today at 10 am CST
  • Weekly US crop progress report comes out on today at 3 pm CST

o   First US winter wheat conditions are expected to come out in this afternoon’s report.  

o   Corn harvest expecting 55-60% complete vs. average of 53%

o   Bean harvest expecting 70-75% complete vs. average of 66%

  • SGS and Intertek Agri Services will estimate Malaysia’s Oct 1-20th palm oil exports tomorrow
  • Weekly API energy inventory report comes out tomorrow at 330 pm CST.
  • Euro Zone flash October PMI comes out on Friday morning.
  • Last trading day for November options is Friday. Grain options expire at 115 pm CST.
  • Argentina president elections on Sunday October 25th

o   Peronist presidential candidate Scioli , who is leading in the polls, may favor a Argentina export tax cut of 5%, Argentina presidential elections are on October 25th.

o   Argentina’s leading opposition candidate Macri told farm groups yesterday he would lower soybean export taxes and lift quotas on wheat and corn shipments

  • FOMC two day policy meeting is Tuesday and Wednesday October 27-28.
  • Fed announcement Wednesday October 28th at 1 pm CST.
  • Position day for November futures is Thursday October 29th. Traders should be out of long positions by the close or risk delivery
  • First notice day for November futures is Wednesday October 30th
  • ADM to release third quarter financial results on Tuesday November 3rd
  • US EPA reaffirms plan to finalize biofuels plan by the end of November
  • ABARES come out on Tuesday December 1st with their Australian crop estimate updates
  • OPEC to meet in early December

Data sources: Dow Jones , Bloomberg, Reuters , DTN news, barchart.com, CME Group and NYSE