News From The Grain Floor 10/15/15

Egypt GASC is in for wheat for November shipment.

NOPA September crush report comes out today at 11 am CST. Based on Reuters poll Expecting

  • Crush average estimate is 129.4 MB , range of estimates are 125.0-132.741 MB. NOPA’s August crush was 135.304 MB and NOPA Sept 2014 crush was 99.970MB
  • Bean oil stocks average estimate 1.396 billion lbs. range of estimates are 1.250-1.580 billion lbs. NOPA’s August bean oil stocks were 1.480 billion lbs. and NOPA’s Sept 2014 bean oil stocks were 936.880 million lbs.
  • Soy meal exports no estimate is given for exports. NOPA’s August soy meal exports were 491,051 tons and Sept 2014 soy meal exports were 308,515 tons

Overnight closes

  • SX unchanged at 910 ½
  • CZ down 2 at 377
  • WZ down a ¼ at 508
  • KC WZ unchanged at 500 ¾
  • MWZ up a ½ at 526 ½
  • SMZ up .10 at 315.90
  • BOZ down .24 at 2859 

Overnight volume

  • SX 17,021
  • CZ 15,297
  • WZ 3,425
  • KC WZ 487
  • MWZ 251
  • SMZ 3,782
  • BOZ 7,900

Overnight option volume

  • Corn 4,195
  • Wheat 725
  • Beans 4,487
  • Meal 266
  • Bean oil 420

Total EOO’s cleared from previous session

Contract Year Month

Product

P/C

Strike Price

Ex Pit Volume – CME Group

201512

CORN OPTIONS

P

400

242

201512

CORN OPTIONS

P

410

97

201512

CORN OPTIONS

P

420

2

Funds

 

COT

COT

COT

 

 

 

 

 

 

Current

 

29-Sep

6-Oct

to COT

7-Oct

8-Oct

9-Oct

12-Oct

13-Oct

14-Oct

Estimate

Corn

-2411

52065

54476

-5000

-6000

-11000

-6000

7000

-8000

23065

Wheat

-68560

-54371

14189

-5000

-4000

-3000

0

6000

-5000

-65371

Soybeans

-36889

-29940

6949

4000

-8000

5000

0

17000

-4000

-15940

Soymeal

29711

28771

-940

2000

-3000

3000

2000

8000

-2000

38771

Soyoil

-16467

853

17320

-2000

-2000

-2000

-3000

6000

0

-2147

News

Dec Euro at 1.1385 down .0103

USD – BRL at 3.8326 up .0205

Nikkei closes up 1.15%

Hang Seng closes up 2.0%

Shanghai Index closes up 2.3%

Fed hike has reached a new low probability after weak US and global data and ECB’s Ewald Nowotny signals more QE is needed.  

Communist Party meeting in China later this month has raised expectations of fresh stimulus  

Weekly US jobless claims report came out this morning at

-7K to 255,000 expecting 270,000

Weekly API energy inventory report came out yesterday afternoon

  • Crude a build of 9.3 MB , expecting a build of 2.8 MB
  • Gas a draw of 5.0 MB , expecting a draw of 1.7 MB
  • Distillates a draw of 2.7 MB , expecting a draw of 60,000 barrels

China grain markets closes – soybeans up 5, corn up 15, meal up 7, palm oil down 2, bean oil up 8.

Malaysian palm oil market closes down 33

SGS estimated Malaysia’s Oct 1-15th palm oil exports at 691,094 tons down 8.6% from a month ago

Intertek estimated Malaysia’s Oct 1-15th palm oil exports at 698,104 tons down 8.8% from a month ago

Good Chinese soybean demand continues.

  • China buying / seeking bean cargoes for November shipment
  • Hearing China bought one cargo of US soybeans off the Gulf for December shipment

Japan bought 116,782 tons of food wheat for Dec shipment. Breakdown

  • 12,965 tons of US western white wheat
  • 11,770 tons of US hard red winter wheat
  • 39,337 tons of US dark northern spring wheat
  • 30,960 tons of Canadian western red spring wheat
  • 21,750 tons of Australian white wheat

South Korea KOCOPIA seeks 165,000 tons of optional origin corn for Feb shipment

Morocco bought 108,500 tons of local soft wheat

Jordan canceled tender to buy 100,000 tons of barley

Much needed rains in forecast for US Plains and Black Sea region next week
Talk of some dryness concerns in Brazil, some analysts saying it is too early to worry but if dryness continues it could hurt yields.

Reports Brazil’s October corn exports could top Brazil’s record August corn exports of 4.6 MMT

  • Brazil has loaded 2.043 MMT of corn for October shipment
  • 5.883 MMT of corn at all Brazil ports being loaded for export

Ukraine rapeseed plantings could fall as much as 40% this season

  • As of October 8th Ukraine planted rapeseed on only 611,000 hectares , well below the original plan
  • In 2014 Ukraine rapeseed planting was delayed but rapeseed plantings were complete by October 10th

French soft wheat plantings are 23% complete vs. 20% a year ago

German grain and rapeseed planting is almost complete

UK wheat planting is about 60-70% complete

UK rapeseed planting could fall as much as 10% due to farmers switching to barley.

Datagro estimates that Brazilian ethanol exports for ‘15/16 will increase to 1.80 billion liters vs. 1.29 billion liters in ‘14/15 to help fill the increased demand from California.

  • Last month California regulators reinstated rule that will require a 10% cut in carbon content of transportation fuel

China auctioning a total of 5.4 MMT of corn from reserves today and tomorrow

China sold 4,000 tons of wheat at auction. They offered 851,000 tons.

Chinese industry analysts – weekly Chinese crush breakdown

  • For the week Oct 3-9 total crush volume at 1,033,200 tons down 25.11% from a week ago
  • For the week Oct 3-9 total crush capacity utilization at 32.94% down 11.05% from a week ago
  • Total ‘14/15 (Oct 1, 2014-Oct 9, 2015) total crush volume at 77,125,500 tons up 7.60% from a year ago
  • Total ‘15/16 (Oct 1-9 2015) total crush volume at 1,328,000 down 9.93% from a year ago
  • As of October 9 total imported bean stocks at 6.3273 million tons up 1.93% from a week ago and up 13.27% from a year ago
  • Estimated October bean imports at 6.0265 MMT vs. previous estimate of 6.20 MMT
  • Estimated November bean imports at 7.00 MMT vs. previous estimate of 6.70 MMT
  • Estimated Dec bean imports at 7.00 MMT unchanged from previous estimate
  • Estimated Jan bean imports at 6.00 MMT , first estimate made for Jan bean imports.

Argentina Ag Min –Argentine farmer selling as of October 7th

  • ‘15/16 wheat crop 2.48% sold vs. 6.57% a year ago
  • ‘15/16 corn crop 1.43% sold vs. 2.29% a year ago
  • ‘15/16 bean crop 1.08% sold vs. 1.09% a year ago
  • ‘14/15 wheat crop 102.39% sold vs. 73.11% a year ago
  • ‘14/15 corn crop 77.31% sold vs. 78.86% a year ago
  • ‘14/15 bean crop 71.04% sold vs. 62.35% a year ago

Deliveries

  • Bean oil 135 with the date current

o   Customer JP Morgan stopped 14

  • Soy meal 0

Moving averages:

  • Nov bean 50 day 892 ¼      
  • Nov bean 100 day 926 ½  
  • Dec corn 20 day 386
  • Dec corn 50 day 381    
  • Dec corn 100 day 389   
  • Dec corn 200 day 396 ½  
  • Dec wheat 20 day 508 ¼
  • Dec wheat 50 day 500
  • Dec wheat 100 day 520 ½   
  • Dec KC wheat 20 day 498 ½  
  • Dec KC wheat 50 day 495
  • Dec KC wheat 100 day 526
  • Dec Minneapolis wheat 20 day 526    
  • Dec Minneapolis wheat 50 day 522 ¼    
  • Dec meal 20 day 307.00
  • Dec meal 50 day 312.00
  • Dec meal 100 day 316.50
  • Dec meal 200 day 315.80
  • Dec bean oil 20 day 2779
  • Dec bean oil 50 day 2792

Receipt Registrations as of yesterday afternoon: – No changes.

  • Wheat = 827
  • Oats = 13
  • Corn = 642
  • Ethanol = 6
  • DDGs = 0
  • Beans = 69
  • Bean oil = 3,024
  • Soymeal = 78
  • Rice = 2,616
  • KC wheat = 223
  • Minneapolis wheat =  674

Open interest as of yesterday’s close:

  • Total corn – 1,296,841 open, up 6,157
  • Total soybeans – 740,497 open, up 6,657
  • Total soymeal – 411,721 open, up 3,228
  • Total bean oil – 417,445 open, down 2,352
  • Total wheat – 370,820 open, down 1,142
  • Total KC wheat – 184,768 open, down 353

Upcoming reports/events:  

  • Weekly EIA Nat Gas storage report comes out today at 930 am CST, expecting +91 BCF
  • Weekly DOE energy inventory report comes out today at 10 am CST . Expecting

o   Crude a build of 2.577 MB

o   Gas a draw of 1.25 MB

o   Distillates a draw of 700,000 barrels

  • Weekly US ethanol plant production report comes out today at 10 am CST
  • Weekly US export sales report comes out tomorrow at 730 am CST
  • Weekly COT report comes out tomorrow at 230 pm CST.
  • Chinese government to issue 3rd quarter GDP on Monday

o   Economists at ANZ said China’s third quarter GDP growth is likely to have slowed to 6.4%.

  • Argentina president elections on October 25th

o   Peronist presidential candidate Scioli , who is leading in the polls, may favor a Argentina export tax cut of 5%, Argentina presidential elections are on October 25th.

o   Argentina’s leading opposition candidate Macri told farm groups yesterday he would lower soybean export taxes and lift quotas on wheat and corn shipments

  • FOMC two day policy meeting is Tuesday and Wednesday October 27-28.
  • Fed announcement Wednesday October 28th at 1 pm CST.
  • ADM to release third quarter financial results on Tuesday November 3rd
  • US EPA reaffirms plan to finalize biofuels plan by the end of November
  • ABARES come out on Tuesday December 1st with their Australian crop estimate updates
  • OPEC to meet in early December

Data sources: Dow Jones , Bloomberg, Reuters , DTN news, barchart.com, CME Group and NYSE