News From The Grain Floor 10/14/15

USDA announced 235,000 tons of US beans sold to China for ’15/16 shipment

Last trading day for October soy meal and bean oil is today. Futures expire at noon CST.

FSA updated US acreage data came out this morning about 515 am CST

  • 2015 planted acres including failed

o   Corn estimated at 84.811 MA vs. Sept estimate of 84.289 MA

o   Bean estimated at 81.079 MA vs. Sept estimate of 80.688 MA

o   Wheat estimated at 52.507 MA vs. September estimate of 52.22 MA

  • 2015 prevented planting

o   Corn estimated at 2.362 MA vs. September estimate of 2.352 MA

o   Bean estimated at 2.227 MA vs. September estimate of 2.219 MA

o   Wheat estimated at .697 MA vs. September estimate of .696 MA  

Overnight closes

  • SX up 3 ¾ at 917 ¾
  • CZ up 1 ½ at 386
  • WZ down a ¼ at 518 ¾
  • KC WZ unchanged at 511
  • MWZ down ¾ at 535 ½
  • SMZ down .10 at 317.60
  • BOZ up 39 at 2918

Overnight volume

  • SX 22,316
  • CZ 19,287
  • WZ 8,909
  • KC WZ 616
  • MWZ 157
  • SMZ 5,760
  • BOZ 9,047

Overnight option volume

  • Corn 1,953
  • Wheat 317
  • Beans 8,668

o   1,012 March bean 940 calls traded overnight at 30-31 7/8

  • Meal 188
  • Bean oil 592

Funds

 

COT

COT

COT

 

 

 

 

 

Current

 

29-Sep

6-Oct

to COT

7-Oct

8-Oct

9-Oct

12-Oct

13-Oct

Estimate

Corn

-2411

52065

54476

-5000

-6000

-11000

-6000

7000

31065

Wheat

-68560

-54371

14189

-5000

-4000

-3000

0

6000

-60371

Soybeans

-36889

-29940

6949

4000

-8000

5000

0

17000

-11940

Soymeal

29711

28771

-940

2000

-3000

3000

2000

8000

40771

Soyoil

-16467

853

17320

-2000

-2000

-2000

-3000

6000

-2147

Weather highlights

In the U.S., very little rain in the forecast which will help corn/beans harvesting and wheat planting through at least Monday-Tuesday. Corn harvest is 42% complete while bean harvest is 62% complete. Winter wheat planting is 64% complete. U.S. temperatures will turn much cooler than normal Thursday-Friday with frosts and freezes across the northeast two thirds of the corn belt. Sharp warming will immediately follow. In Brazil, a couple of fronts will bring rains across/adjacent Rio Grande Do Sul over the next 10 to 14 days. Much drier weather still takes place in the north which means a late to very late start to the rainy season (and planting season)…this may last until the end of the month. In Argentina, some showers will take place today but this should be limited to far southern and northern areas. Another rain event is not seen in the near future which will allow plantings to continue.. See below for maps

News

Dec Euro at 1.1451 up .0057

USD – BRL at 3.8535 down .0392

Nikkei closes down 1.89%

Hang Seng closes down .71%

Shanghai Index closes down .9%

US September PPI  -.5%  , expecting -.2%

US September retail sales +.1% , expecting +.2%

China’s September CPI came out this morning at +1.6% , expecting +1.8% , vs. +2.0% in August

China’s September PPI came out this morning at -5.9% , as expected , and unchanged from August

Concerns continue about China’s economy.

Malaysian and Indonesian markets closed today for holiday

China grain markets closes – soybeans up 31, corn up 15, meal up 29, palm oil up 50, and bean oil up 32

Malaysian palm oil market closed for holiday, trade resumes tomorrow.

Reports of good soybean demand from China.

Japan receives no offers for regular feed wheat and barley tender

Japan seeks 120,000 tons of feed wheat and 200,000 tons of barley via SBS tender

India’s trade body said India’s September  total veg oil imports were 1.2 MMT up 16% from a year ago

India’s trade body said India’s September palm oil imports were 783,734 tons up 12% from a year ago

India’s trade body said India’s September bean oil imports doubled to 321,062 tons from a year ago

India’s trade body said India imported 12.94 MMT of veg oils between November-September up 22% from a year ago

GSFMO estimated Saudi Arabia’s 2015 wheat imports at 3.4 MMT

GSFMO estimated Saudi Arabia’s 2016 wheat imports at 3.5 MMT

Czech Stats Bureau estimated Czech’s 2015 grain crop at 7.85 MMT vs. previous estimate of 7.70 MMT and vs. 2014 crop of 7.93 MMT

China Cotton Association said China imported 1.16 MMT of cotton between Jan-Sept 2015 down 42% from a year ago

Concerns of dryness in Black Sea region continue.

Weekly US crop progress report from yesterday

Corn

  • Condition 68% good to excellent , unchanged from a week ago and vs. 74% a year ago  
  • Harvested 42% (expecting 40-45% complete) vs. 27% a week ago and vs. 43% five year average
  • Mature 94% vs. 86% a week ago and vs. 91% five year average

Soybeans

  • Condition 64% good to excellent, unchanged from a week ago and vs. 73% a year ago
  • Harvested 62% (expecting 60-65% complete ) vs. 42% a week ago and vs. 54% five year average
  • Dropping leaves 92% vs. 85% a week ago and vs. 91% five year average

Winter wheat

  • Planted 64% (expecting 60-67% complete) vs. 49% a week ago and vs. 66% five year average
  • Emerged 33% vs. 20% a week ago and vs. 36% five year average

Rice

  • Harvested 88% vs. 78% a week ago and vs. 80% five year average

Cotton

  • Condition 47% good to excellent down 1% from a week ago and vs. 47% a year ago
  • Harvested 22% vs. 16% a week ago and vs. 25% five year average
  • Bolls open 88% vs. 77% a week ago and vs. 84% five year average

Deliveries

  • Bean oil 173 with the date current

o   Customer ADM issued 173

o   House Rosenthal stopped 40

  • Soy meal 0
  • Ethanol  0

Moving averages:

  • Nov bean 50 day 893 ¼      
  • Nov bean 100 day 926 ½  
  • Dec corn 20 day 386 ¼  
  • Dec corn 50 day 381    
  • Dec corn 100 day 389   
  • Dec corn 200 day 397
  • Dec wheat 20 day 507 ½
  • Dec wheat 50 day 500 ¼    
  • Dec wheat 100 day 520 ½   
  • Dec KC wheat 20 day 498 
  • Dec KC wheat 50 day 495 ¼  
  • Dec KC wheat 100 day 526 ½
  • Dec Minneapolis wheat 20 day 525 ½    
  • Dec Minneapolis wheat 50 day 522 ½   
  • Dec meal 20 day 306.90
  • Dec meal 50 day 312.40
  • Dec meal 100 day 316.30
  • Dec meal 200 day 315.90

Receipt Registrations as of yesterday afternoon: – no changes.

  • Wheat = 827
  • Oats = 13
  • Corn = 642
  • Ethanol = 6
  • DDGs = 0
  • Beans = 69
  • Bean oil = 3,024
  • Soymeal = 78
  • Rice = 2,616
  • KC wheat = 223
  • Minneapolis wheat =  674

Open interest as of yesterday’s close:

  • Total corn – 1,209,881 open, up 6,078
  • Total soybeans –733,991 open, up 17,428
  • Total soymeal – 408,684 open, up 14,370
  • Total bean oil –419,813 open, up 7,268
  • Total wheat –372,106 open , up 1,570
  • Total KC wheat – 185,124 open, down 470

Upcoming reports/events:  

  • Weekly API energy inventory report comes out today at 330 pm
  • SGS and Intertek Agri Services will estimate Malaysia’s Oct 1-15th palm oil exports tomorrow morning.
  • Weekly US jobless claims report comes out tomorrow at 730 am CST
  • Weekly EIA Nat Gas storage report comes out tomorrow at 930 am CST
  • Weekly DOE energy inventory report comes out tomorrow at 10 am CST
  • Weekly US ethanol plant production report comes out tomorrow at 10 am CST
  • NOPA September crush report comes out tomorrow at 11 am CST.

o   Based on Reuters poll Expecting

  • NOPA September crush average estimate is 129.4 MB , range of estimates are 125.0-132.741 MB
  • NOPA September bean oil stocks average estimate 1.396 billion lbs. range of estimates are 1.250-1.580 billion lbs.
  • No September soy meal export estimate is given.

o   NOPA August crush was 135.304 MB 

o   NOPA August bean oil stocks were 1.480 billion lbs.

o   NOPA August soymeal  exports were 491,501 tons

o   NOPA Sept 2014 crush was 99.970 MB

o   NOPA Sept 2014 bean oil stocks were 936.880 million lbs. 

o   NOPA Sept 2014 soymeal exports were 308,515 tons

  • Weekly US export sales report comes out on Friday at 730 am CST
  • Weekly COT report comes out on Friday at 230 pm CST.
  • Chinese government to issue 3rd quarter GDP on Monday

o   Economists at ANZ said China’s third quarter GDP growth is likely to have slowed to 6.4%.

  • Argentina president elections on October 25th

o   Peronist presidential candidate Scioli , who is leading in the polls, may favor a Argentina export tax cut of 5%, Argentina presidential elections are on October 25th.

o   Argentina’s leading opposition candidate Macri told farm groups yesterday he would lower soybean export taxes and lift quotas on wheat and corn shipments

  • ADM to release third quarter financial results on Tuesday November 3rd
  • US EPA reaffirms plan to finalize biofuels plan by the end of November
  • ABARES come out on Tuesday December 1st with their Australian crop estimate updates
  • OPEC to meet in early December

Data sources: Dow Jones , Bloomberg, Reuters , DTN news, barchart.com, CME Group and NYSE