News From The Grain Floor 10/13/15

USDA announced 240,000 tons of US beans sold to China for ’15/16 shipment

Overnight closes

  • SX up 6 at 893 ½
  • CZ down 1 ¼ at 379 ½
  • WZ up 1 ½ at 508 ¼
  • KC WZ up 1 ¾ at 499 ½
  • MWZ up a ¼ at 528 ½
  • SMZ up 2.30 at 311.80
  • BOZ up 34 at 2852 

Overnight volume

  • SX 26,360
  • CZ 16,090
  • WZ 5,919
  • KC WZ 496
  • MWZ 135
  • SMZ 11,124
  • BOZ 12,028

Overnight option volume

  • Corn 2,359
  • Wheat 1,774
  • Beans 1,538
  • Meal 1,222
  • Bean oil 469

Meal vol got hit overnight, Dec vol down 1.50-1.75% , 850 of the Dec meal 300 puts traded at 2.80-3.50

Funds

 

COT

COT

COT

 

 

 

 

Current

 

29-Sep

6-Oct

to COT

7-Oct

8-Oct

9-Oct

12-Oct

Estimate

Corn

-2411

52065

54476

-5000

-6000

-11000

-6000

24065

Wheat

-68560

-54371

14189

-5000

-4000

-3000

0

-66371

Soybeans

-36889

-29940

6949

4000

-8000

5000

0

-28940

Soymeal

29711

28771

-940

2000

-3000

3000

2000

32771

Soyoil

-16467

853

17320

-2000

-2000

-2000

-3000

-8147

Weather highlights

In Brazil, most of the South received around 6.00” of rain over the last two weeks which suggest dry weather would now be ideal for corn/soy plantings and wheat harvesting. On the opposite, northern areas need more rain for corn and beans planting to begin (especially in Goias and points east). In the coming days, there are rains in the forecast for Rio Grande do Sul and Santa Catarina (Wednesday-Thursday)…this will be followed by some drying then more showers Sunday-Monday…in the northern areas, not much rainfall is in the forecast with temps often in the 90’s-100’s. In Argentina, some rains will take place tomorrow with coverage across southwest half of Buenos Aires and points west. A period of cool and dry weather follows. Note 20% of corn and 26% of sunflower were planted as of Thursday. See below for maps.

News

Dec Euro at 1.1401 up .0014

USD – BRL at 3.8252 up .0632

Nikkei closes down 1.11%

Hang Seng closes down .6%

Shanghai Index closes up .2%

China’s September trade balance report came out last night/this morning

  • China’s September exports -3.7% , expecting -6.5% vs. -5.5% in August
  • China’s September imports -20.4%, expecting -16.5% vs. -13.8% in August
  • China September trade surplus $60.3 billion , expecting surplus of $47.6 billion vs. August trade surplus of $60.24 billion

Concerns continue about global economy

Concerns continue about Chinese economy.

China grain markets closes – soybeans up 15, corn down 19, meal up 7, palm oil up 32, and bean oil up 30

Malaysian palm oil market closed up 63.

Rumors overnight that China is going to replenish their edible oil stocks

Talk/reports of good soybean demand from China.

China’s customs data showed China imported a record 78.3 MMT of soybeans in the ‘14/15 marketing year (Oct 2014-Sept 2015) up 11.3% from ‘13/14. China imported 70.36 MMT of beans in ‘13/14.

China’s customs data showed China imported 7.26 MMT of soybeans in September down 6.7% from a month ago and up 44.3% from a year ago.

China’s customs data showed China imported 59.65 MMT of soybeans between Jan-September up 13% from a year ago

China’s customs data showed China imported 700,000 tons of edible oils in September up 63% from a year ago

China’s customs data showed China imported 4.93 MMT of edible oils between Jan-Sept down 4.1% from a year ago

Analysts said China’s monthly bean imports will average 6.0 MMT per month for the next 3 months.

China’s soybean stocks at the end of last week were 6.32 MMT up 13% from a year ago.

China was eyeing US soybean cargoes off the PNW for November shipment yesterday.

South Korea NOFI seeks up to 207,000 tons of optional origin corn for March – April shipment

Japan seeks 116,782 tons of food wheat for Dec shipment. Breakdown

  • 12,965 tons of US western white wheat
  • 11,770 tons of US hard red winter wheat
  • 39,337 tons of US dark northern spring wheat
  • 30,960 tons of Canadian western red spring wheat
  • 21,750 tons of Australian white wheat

Analysts continue to talk about excellent soybean yields in the US. Some analysts expecting 2015 US bean yield at 48.8-49.4 BPA vs. USDA’s Friday estimate of 47.2 BPA

UkrAgroConsult estimated 2015 Black Sea corn crop at 47.0 MMT down 9% from 2014 due to hot/dry weather

UkrAgroConsult 2015 corn production estimates

  • Ukraine corn crop estimated at 23.0 MMT vs. 25.9 MMT in 2014 and vs. USDA estimate of 25.0 MMT
  • Russia corn crop estimated at 12 MMT (record) vs. 11.3 MMT in 2014
  • Romania corn crop estimated at 9.0 MMT vs. 11.4 MMT in 2014
  • Bulgaria corn crop estimated at 2.5 MMT vs. 3.14 MMT in 2014

Favorable US Midwest harvest weather continues.

Today is the last day of the Goldman Sachs / UBS roll. They are rolling long Nov bean and Dec bean oil and soymeal positions into Jan.

 Deliveries

  • Bean oil 34 with the date at 10-02-15
  • Soy meal 0
  • Ethanol  0

Moving averages:

  • Nov bean 20 day 880 ½    
  • Nov bean 50 day 893 ¼       
  • Dec corn 20 day 386 ¼  
  • Dec corn 50 day 381    
  • Dec corn 100 day 389   
  • Dec corn 200 day 397 ¼    
  • Dec wheat 20 day 505 ½
  • Dec wheat 50 day 499 ½   
  • Dec wheat 100 day 520 ½   
  • Dec KC wheat 20 day 497  
  • Dec KC wheat 50 day 495 ¼  
  • Dec Minneapolis wheat 20 day 524 ¼   
  • Dec Minneapolis wheat 50 day 522 ¼  
  • Dec meal 20 day 306.50
  • Dec meal 50 day 312.50
  • Dec meal 100 day 316.00
  • Dec meal 200 day 315.90
  • Dec bean oil 50 day 2798

Receipt Registrations as of yesterday afternoon: – no changes.

  • Wheat = 827
  • Oats = 13
  • Corn = 642
  • Ethanol = 6
  • DDGs = 0
  • Beans = 69
  • Bean oil = 3,024
  • Soymeal = 78
  • Rice = 2,616
  • KC wheat = 223
  • Minneapolis wheat =  674

Open interest as of yesterday’s close:

  • Total corn – 1,285,350 open, up 6,434
  • Total soybeans –717,339 open, up 5,242
  • Total soymeal – 394,453 open, up 2,660
  • Total bean oil –412,634 open, down 1,998
  • Total wheat –370,790 open , up 1,175
  • Total KC wheat – 185,819 open, down 615

Upcoming reports/events:  

  • Weekly US export inspections comes out today at 10 am CST.
  • US crop progress report comes out today at 3 pm CST. Expecting

o   Corn harvest 40-45% complete vs. 43% average

o   Bean harvest 60-65% complete vs. 53% average

  • China’s PPI and CPI comes out tonight/tomorrow morning
  • FSA US acreage data comes out tomorrow morning
  • Last trading day of October soy meal and bean oil is tomorrow. Futures expire at noon CST
  • Weekly API energy inventory report comes out tomorrow at 330 pm
  • SGS and Intertek Agri Services will estimate Malaysia’s Oct 1-15th palm oil exports on Thursday morning.
  • Weekly US jobless claims report comes out Thursday at 730 am CST
  • Weekly EIA Nat Gas storage report comes out Thursday at 930 am CST
  • Weekly DOE energy inventory report comes out Thursday at 10 am CST
  • Weekly US ethanol plant production report comes out Thursday at 10 am CST
  • NOPA September crush report comes out on Thursday at 11 am CST . Estimates for NOPA’s report are not out yet

o   NOPA August crush was 135.304 MB 

o   NOPA August bean oil stocks were 1.480 billion lbs.

o   NOPA August soymeal  exports were 491,501 tons

o   NOPA Sept 2014 crush was 99.970 MB

o   NOPA Sept 2014 bean oil stocks were 936.880 million lbs. 

o   NOPA Sept 2014 soymeal exports were 308,515 tons

  • Weekly US export sales report comes out on Friday at 730 am CST
  • Weekly COT report comes out on Friday at 230 pm CST.
  • Chinese government to issue 3rd quarter GDP on Monday

o   Economists at ANZ said China’s third quarter GDP growth is likely to have slowed to 6.4%.

  • Argentina president elections on October 25th

o   Peronist presidential candidate Scioli , who is leading in the polls, may favor a Argentina export tax cut of 5%, Argentina presidential elections are on October 25th.

o   Argentina’s leading opposition candidate Macri told farm groups yesterday he would lower soybean export taxes and lift quotas on wheat and corn shipments

  • US EPA reaffirms plan to finalize biofuels plan by the end of November
  • ABARES come out on Tuesday December 1st with their Australian crop estimate updates
  • OPEC to meet in early December

Data sources: Dow Jones , Bloomberg, Reuters , DTN news, barchart.com, CME Group and NYSE