News From The Grain Floor 10/09/15

USDA comes out today at 11 am CST with October supply and demand and crop production report. See below for estimates and attachment for recap table.

USDA announced 360,000 tons of US soybeans sold to China for ‘15/16 shipment

Egypt GASC in for wheat for November shipment , getting offers from France, Russia, and Romania  

Overnight closes

  • SX up 3 at 884 ¼
  • CZ up 2 at 393 ¼
  • WZ up 3 ¾ at 515 ¼
  • KC WZ up 4 ½ at 508
  • MWZ up 2 ¾ at 533 ¾
  • SMZ up 1.10 at 305.40
  • BOZ up 17 at 2853

Overnight volume

  • SX 16,297
  • CZ 13,718
  • WZ 7,477
  • KC WZ 701
  • MWZ 304
  • SMZ 6,036
  • BOZ 13,731

Overnight option volume

  • Corn 8,255
  • Wheat 3,375
  • Beans 5,760
  • Meal 288
  • Bean oil 19

2,000 Dec corn 360 puts traded overnight at 2 ½ -2 7/8

Total EOO’s cleared from previous session

Contract Year Month

Product Desc

P/C Ind

Strike Price

Ex Pit Volume – CME Group

201603

CORN OPTIONS

P

440

2,100

201512

CORN OPTIONS

P

410

115

201512

CORN OPTIONS

P

400

5

201512

CORN OPTIONS

P

420

1

Funds

 

COT

COT

COT

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Current

 

22-Sep

29-Sep

to COT

30-Sep

1-Oct

2-Oct

5-Oct

6-Oct

7-Oct

8-Oct

Estimate

Corn

-1375

-2411

-1036

-8000

2000

4000

6000

9000

-5000

-6000

-411

Wheat

-78152

-68560

9592

7000

4000

-4000

2000

8000

-5000

-4000

-60560

Soybeans

-57866

-36889

20977

7000

-10000

-5000

7000

4000

4000

-8000

-37889

Soymeal

27963

29711

1748

3000

-4000

-3000

3000

0

2000

-3000

27711

Soyoil

-32460

-16467

15993

-3000

-1000

6000

6000

1000

-2000

-2000

-11467

News

Dec Euro at 1.1372 up .0089

USD – BRL at 3.7434 down .0422

Nikkei closes up 1.64%, up 4.0% on week, first weekly gain since September 11th

Hang Seng closes up .5%, up 4.4% on week, biggest weekly gain since early April

Shanghai Index closes up 1.3%

China grain markets closes – soybeans down 65, corn up 9, meal down 15, palm oil down 16, bean oil up 32

Malaysian palm oil market closed down 44

Algeria bought 675,000-800,000 tons of optional origin wheat for Nov-Dec shipment, part of tender expected to be French origin.

South Korea KOCOPIA bought 60,000 tons of South American origin corn for Jan shipment

CONAB came out this morning with their first estimates for Brazil’s ‘15/16 crops.

  • ‘15/16 bean crop estimated at 100.1-101.9 MMT (record) vs. ‘14/15 bean crop of 96.2 MMT
  • ‘15/16 bean exports estimated at 53.0 MMT vs. 50.8 MMT in ‘14/15
  • ‘15/16 bean planting area expected to increase by 1.7-3.6% this year.
  • ‘15/16 corn crop estimated at 82.6-83.6 MMT vs. ‘14/15 corn crop of 85.5 MMT
  • ‘15/16 corn exports estimated at 28.0 MMT vs. 27.2 MMT in ‘14/15
  • ‘15/16 corn planting area expected to fall 1.7-2.7% this year
  • ‘15/16 wheat crop estimated at 6.6 MMT vs. previous estimate of 7.1 MMT
  • ‘15/16 total grain and oilseed production estimated at 210.3-213.5 MMT vs. ‘14/15 total production of 209.8 MMT

Based on a Reuters poll Australia’s ’15.16 wheat crop estimated at 24.3 MMT vs. ABARES September estimate of 25.28 MMT and vs. USDA September estimate of 26.0 MMT

Felda said El Nino seen cutting Malaysia and Indonesia’s palm oil output by 5-6% in 2016

Felda said palm oil prices could trade around 2,500 ringgit  per ton in Jan-March 2016 due to lower output. Spot palm oil futures closed today at 2232

Felda said higher biodiesel mandate in Indonesia and Malaysia to absorb excess palm oil supply in 2016

Felda expects Malaysia’s palm oil stocks to fall to 2.0 MMT by the end of 2015 vs. 2.5 MMT in August 2015.

Ukraine Weather Center Forecaster said Ukraine could lose up to 30% of 2016 winter sowing area due to dry weather

Analysts said hot , dry weather may cut Black Sea 2015 corn crop by 9%

Favorable US Midwest harvest weather.

Concerns over dryness in Black Sea region continues

  • Forecasts calling for some rains in Ukraine and southern Russia next week.

Today is the third day of the Goldman Sachs / UBS roll. They are rolling long Nov bean and Dec bean oil and soymeal positions into Jan. Roll ends on Tuesday.

 Deliveries

  • Bean oil 0
  • Soy meal 0
  • Ethanol  0

Moving averages:

  • Nov bean 20 day 880 ¼   
  • Nov bean 50 day 895 ¼       
  • Dec corn 20 day 388
  • Dec corn 50 day 381   
  • Dec corn 100 day 389   
  • Dec corn 200 day 397 ¾  
  • Dec wheat 20 day 504 ½
  • Dec wheat 50 day 499 ½     
  • Dec wheat 100 day 521 ½   
  • Dec KC wheat 20 day 496  
  • Dec KC wheat 50 day 495 ½
  • Dec Minneapolis wheat 20 day 523 ¾  
  • Dec Minneapolis wheat 50 day 522 ½
  • Dec meal 20 day 306.80
  • Dec meal 50 day 312.90
  • Dec meal 100 day 315.70
  • Dec meal 200 day 316.20
  • Dec bean oil 50 day 2806

Receipt Registrations as of yesterday afternoon: – no changes

  • Wheat = 827
  • Oats = 13
  • Corn = 642
  • Ethanol = 6
  • DDGs = 0
  • Beans = 69
  • Bean oil = 3,024
  • Soymeal = 78
  • Rice = 2,616
  • KC wheat = 223
  • Minneapolis wheat =  714

Open interest as of yesterday’s close:

  • Total corn – 1,294,733 open, down 9,740
  • Total soybeans –696,653 open, down 2,706
  • Total soymeal – 379,363 open, up 391
  • Total bean oil – 409,894 open, up 4,144
  • Total wheat –366,982 open, down 2,168
  • Total KC wheat – 187,056 open, up 186

Upcoming reports/events:  

  • Weekly COT report comes out today at 230 pm CST  
  • Surveyors SGS and Intertek Agri Services come out over the weekend with their Malaysian Oct 1-10 palm oil export estimates
  • Malaysian Palm Oil Board comes out on Monday morning with their September palm oil data report.
  • Columbus Day holiday in US on Monday. US Grain markets are opened. Financials and currency markets are closed.
  • Weekly US export inspections come out on Tuesday at 10 am CST. Delayed one day due to US government holiday on Monday
  • US crop progress report comes out on Tuesday at 3 pm CST. Delayed one day due to US government holiday on Monday
  • Last trading day of October soy meal and bean oil is Wednesday October 14th. Futures expire at noon CST
  • NOPA September crush report comes out on Thursday at 11 am CST
  • Chinese government to issue 3rd quarter GDP on Monday October 19th

o   Economists at ANZ said China’s third quarter GDP growth is likely to have slowed to 6.4%.

  • Argentina president elections on October 25th

o   Peronist presidential candidate Scioli , who is leading in the polls, may favor a Argentina export tax cut of 5%, Argentina presidential elections are on October 25th.

o   Argentina’s leading opposition candidate Macri told farm groups yesterday he would lower soybean export taxes and lift quotas on wheat and corn shipments

  • US EPA reaffirms plan to finalize biofuels plan by the end of November
  • OPEC to meet in early December

USDA’s October supply and demand and production report comes out today at 11 am CST. 

  • Estimates are based on what analysts think the USDA will report today.

Estimates for ‘15/16 US corn and soybean production

  • Corn production (21 analysts surveyed) – Average estimate 13.504 BB, range of estimates are 13.283 -13.798 BB. USDA Sept estimate was 13.585 BB
  • Corn yield (21 analysts surveyed) – Average estimate 167.1 BPA, range of estimates are 165.0 -169.5 BPA. USDA Sept estimate was 167.5 BPA
  • Corn harvested acres (20 analysts surveyed) – Average estimate 80.826 MA, range of estimates are 80.430-81.403 MA. USDA Sept estimate was 81.101 MA
  • Soybean production (21 analysts surveyed) – Average estimate 3.908 BB, range of estimates are 3.830-3.975 BB. USDA Sept estimate was 3.935 BB
  • Soybean yield (21 analysts surveyed) – Average estimate 47.2 BPA, range of estimates are 46.5 – 47.7 BPA. USDA Sept estimate was 47.1 BPA
  • Soybean harvested acres (20 analysts surveyed) – Average estimate 82.914 MA, range of estimates are 82.213 – 83.900 MA. USDA Sept estimate was 83.549 MA

Estimates for ‘15/16 US ending stocks

  • Wheat (19 analysts surveyed) – Average estimate is .819 BB, range of estimates are .765 -.891 BB. USDA Sept estimate was .875 BB
  • Corn (20 analysts surveyed) – Average estimate is 1.534 BB, range of estimates are 1.339 -1.750 BB. USDA Sept estimate was 1.592 BB
  • Beans (20 analysts surveyed) – Average estimate is .414 BB, range of estimates are .300 -.475 BB. USDA Sept estimate was .450 BB

Estimates for ‘14/15 world ending stocks:

  • Wheat (8 analysts surveyed) – Average estimate is 211.37 MMT, range of estimates are 210.00 -212.79 MMT. USDA Sept estimate was 211.31 MMT.
  • Corn (7 analysts surveyed) – Average estimate is 196.97 MMT, range of estimates are 195.00 -198.00 MMT. USDA Sept estimate was 197.21 MMT.
  • Beans (8 analysts surveyed) – Average estimate is 78.11 MMT, range of estimates are 77.50- 78.56 MMT. USDA Sept estimate was 78.73 MMT.

Estimates for ‘15/16 world ending stocks

  • Wheat (13 analysts surveyed) – Average estimate 224.76 MMT, range of estimates are 222.19-226.00 MMT . USDA Sept estimate was 226.56 MMT
  • Corn (13 analysts surveyed) – Average estimate 188.73 MMT, range of estimates are 184.85-193.00 MMT . USDA Sept estimate was 189.69 MMT
  • Beans (14 analysts surveyed) – Average estimate 84.41 MMT, range of estimates are 82.00 -86.50 MMT . USDA Sept estimate was 84.98 MMT

Data sources: Dow Jones , Bloomberg, Reuters , DTN news, barchart.com, CME Group and NYSE