News From The Grain Floor 10/08/15

USDA announced 20,000 tons of US bean oil sold to unknown for ‘15/16 shipment

Chinese markets reopen last night after week long holiday.

Overnight closes

  • SX down 4 ¼ at 886 ¾
  • CZ down 1 ¼ at 394 ½
  • WZ up a ¼ at 517
  • KC WZ up 1 ½ at 509 ½
  • MWZ up 1 ½ at 534 ¼
  • SMZ down .40 at 306.10
  • BOZ down 28 at 2834

Overnight volume

  • SX 15,675
  • CZ 14,308
  • WZ 7,037
  • KC WZ 630
  • MWZ 167
  • SMZ 4,502
  • BOZ 12,543

Overnight option volume

  • Corn 3,850
  • Wheat 498
  • Beans 858
  • Meal 48
  • Bean oil 7

Funds

 

COT

COT

COT

 

 

 

 

 

 

Current

 

22-Sep

29-Sep

to COT

30-Sep

1-Oct

2-Oct

5-Oct

6-Oct

7-Oct

Estimate

Corn

-1375

-2411

-1036

-8000

2000

4000

6000

9000

-5000

5589

Wheat

-78152

-68560

9592

7000

4000

-4000

2000

8000

-5000

-56560

Soybeans

-57866

-36889

20977

7000

-10000

-5000

7000

4000

4000

-29889

Soymeal

27963

29711

1748

3000

-4000

-3000

3000

0

2000

30711

Soyoil

-32460

-16467

15993

-3000

-1000

6000

6000

1000

-2000

-9467

News

Dec Euro at 1.1271 up .0008

Nikkei closes down .99%

Hang Seng closes down .71%

Shanghai Index closes up 3.0%

FOMC to release minutes from the September 16-17 policy meeting today at 1 pm CST.

Weekly US jobless claims came out this morning at -13K to 263K, expecting 274K

China grain markets closes – soybeans down 120, corn down 18, soy meal up 1, palm oil up 34, bean oil up 62

Malaysian palm oil market closed down 43

American Fats and Oils Association Conference in New York concludes today.

Japan bought 119,141 tons of US, Canadian, and Australian wheat for Nov-Dec shipment

Saudi Arabia seeks 715,000 tons of optional origin hard wheat for Dec –Feb shipment  

South Korea KOCOPIA seeks 55,000 tons of optional origin corn for January shipment

FAO estimated ‘15/16 global cereals output at 2.534 billion tons vs. previous estimate of 2.540 billion

FAO estimated ‘15/16 global cereals stocks at 637.8 MMT

FAO estimated ‘15/16 global wheat crop at 734.8 MMT

USDA attaché in Brazil estimated Brazil’s ‘15/16 bean crop at 97.0 MMT (record)

USDA attaché in Brazil estimated Brazil’s ‘15/16 bean exports at 53.5 MMT (record)

USDA attaché in Brazil estimated Brazil’s ‘15/16 bean crush at 40.0 MMT

USDA attaché in Argentina estimated Argentina’s ‘15/16 soybean area at 20.0 MH

USDA attaché in Argentina estimated Argentina’s ‘15/16 soybean crop at 57.0 MMT

USDA attaché in Argentina estimated Argentina’s ‘15/16 sunflower output at 3.2 MMT

Concerns about dryness continues in Russia, Australia, and US wheat areas

Forecasts calling for some rain next week in Ukraine and southern Russia

Today is the second day of the Goldman Sachs / UBS roll. They are rolling long Nov bean and Dec bean oil and soymeal positions into Jan. Roll ends on Tuesday.

Today is the last day of the Deutsche Bank roll. They are rolling long Nov 2015 bean positions into Nov 2016 beans.

Weekly US export sales report

  • Wheat –  ‘15/16 288,200 ‘16/17 5,000 (expecting 175-375,000 tons)
  • Corn – ‘15/16 519,700 ‘16/17 -53,000 (expecting 550-750,000 tons)
  • Beans – ‘15/16 1,284,600 ‘16/17 995,600 (expecting 700,000 – 1.2 million tons)
  • Meal –  ‘15/16 275,500 (expecting 50-350,000 tons)
  • Bean oil- ‘15/16 8,500 (expecting 0-40,000 tons)

Export highlights

  • Wheat – Net sales of 288,200 metric tons for delivery in marketing year 2015/2016 were up noticeably from the previous week and 12 percent from the prior 4-week average. Increases were reported for Thailand (57,600 MT), South Korea (53,300 MT), the Philippines (36,700 MT, including 20,000 MT switched from unknown destinations), Japan (29,000 MT), Mexico (21,900 MT), and Guatemala (21,500 MT, including 19,000 MT switched from unknown destinations). Decreases were reported for unknown destinations (34,100 MT). Net sales of 4,900 MT for 2016/2017 were reported for Mexico. Exports of 567,500 MT were unchanged from the previous week, but up 2 percent from the prior-4 week average. The primary destinations were Thailand (104,200 MT), Japan (98,300 MT), the Philippines (76,700 MT), Nigeria (55,000 MT), Italy (39,200 MT), Guatemala (32,500 MT), and Panama (25,800 MT).
  • Corn – Net sales of 519,700 MT for 2015/2016 were down 31 percent from the previous week. Increases reported for Mexico (338,300 MT), Panama (52,200 MT), Bangladesh (44,000 MT, including 40,000 MT switched from unknown destinations), Jamaica (43,000 MT), and Japan (37,200 MT, including 10,400 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 24,000 MT), were partially offset by decreases for unknown destinations (50,300 MT) and Taiwan (1,800 MT). Net sales reductions of 53,100 MT for 2016/2017 were reported for Panama (51,900 MT) and Honduras (1,200 MT). Exports of 489,900 MT were down 40 percent from the previous week. The primary destinations were Mexico (184,100 MT), Japan (120,900 MT), Bangladesh (44,000 MT), Colombia (31,300 MT), Guatemala (31,200 MT), Panama (21,100 MT), and El Salvador (17,000 MT)
  • Beans – Net sales of 1,284,600 MT for 2015/2016, down 49 percent from the previous week, were primarily for China (683,500 MT, including 123,000 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 64,000 MT), unknown destinations (300,900 MT), the Netherlands (141,000 MT, including 140,000 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 4,000 MT), Japan (59,700 MT, including 39,800 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 200 MT), and Indonesia (28,600 MT). Decreases were reported for Mexico (15,600 MT). Net sales of 995,600 MT for 2016/2017 resulted as increases for China (1,000,000 MT), were partially offset by decreases for Panama (4,400 MT). Exports of 933,900 MT were primarily to China (573,900 MT), the Netherlands (141,000 MT), Mexico (48,200 MT), Japan (46,400 MT), Taiwan (34,200 MT), and Peru (22,400 MT)
  • Meal – Net sales of 275,500 MT for the 2015/2016 marketing year (which began Oct. 1) were primarily for Mexico (70,100 MT), Canada (44,000 MT), unknown destinations (34,500 MT), and the Philippines (25,900 MT). Decreases were reported for Costa Rica (3,000 MT). Net sales of 200 MT for 2016/2017 were reported for Mexico. Exports for October 1 of 9,900 MT were reported for Mexico (6,300 MT), Nicaragua (3,000 MT), and Canada (600 MT). Net sales reductions of 10,000 MT for (Sept. 25-30) resulted as increases for El Salvador (600 MT, including 500 MT switched from Guatemala), Guatemala (300 MT), and Japan (200 MT), were more than offset by decreases for Mexico (5,000 MT), Costa Rica (4,500 MT), and Canada (1,500 MT). A total of 329,900 MT in sales were outstanding on September 30 (the end of the 2014/2015 marketing year) and carried over to the 2015/2016 marketing year. Exports of 97,300 MT were reported for September 25-30. The primary destinations were Mexico (66,400 MT), Canada (11,800 MT), Panama (9,500 MT), and Guatemala (3,700 MT)
  • Bean oil – Net sales of 8,500 MT for the 2015/2016 marketing year (which began Oct. 1) resulted as increases for Canada (7,000 MT), unknown destinations (1,000 MT), Trinidad (800 MT), and Mexico (800 MT), were partially offset by decreases for Guatemala (2,000 MT). Exports for October 1 of 300 MT were reported for Mexico (200 MT) and Canada (100 MT). Net sales of 6,500 MT for (Sept. 25-30) were reported for Canada (5,100 MT), Mexico (1,300 MT), and Lebanon (100 MT). A total of 71,400 MT in sales were outstanding on September 30 (the end of the 2014/2015 marketing year) and carried over to the 2015/2016 marketing year.

 Deliveries

  • Bean oil 14 with the date at 10/01/15
  • Soy meal 0
  • Ethanol  0

Moving averages:

  • Nov bean 20 day 879 ¾  
  • Nov bean 50 day 896 ½      
  • Dec corn 20 day 387 ¾  
  • Dec corn 100 day 389   
  • Dec corn 200 day 398     
  • Dec wheat 100 day 521 ½   
  • Dec KC wheat 20 day 494 ½
  • Dec KC wheat 50 day 496
  • Dec Minneapolis wheat 20 day 523
  • Dec Minneapolis wheat 50 day
  • Dec meal 20 day 307.10
  • Dec meal 50 day 313.40
  • Dec meal 100 day 315.70
  • Dec meal 200 day 316.40
  • Dec bean oil 50 day 2810

Receipt Registrations as of yesterday afternoon:

  • Wheat = 827
  • Oats = 13
  • Corn = 642
  • Ethanol = 6

o   24 ethanol receipts were canceled yesterday afternoon

  • Out of Vitol Inc. Argo IL
  • DDGs = 0
  • Beans = 69
  • Bean oil = 3,024
  • Soymeal = 78

o   10 soymeal receipts were canceled yesterday afternoon

  • Out of Owensboro Grain Company , Owensboro KY
  • Rice = 2,616
  • KC wheat = 223
  • Minneapolis wheat =  714

Upcoming reports/events:  

  • Weekly EIA Nat Gas storage report comes out today at 930 am CST , expecting +99 BCF
  • CONAB comes out tomorrow with their first estimates for Brazil’s ‘15/16 crops.
  • USDA comes out tomorrow at 11 am CST with October supply and demand and crop production report. See below for estimates for report
  • Weekly COT report comes out tomorrow at 230 pm CST  
  • Surveyors SGS and Intertek Agri Services come out over the weekend with their Malaysian Oct 1-10 palm oil export estimates
  • Malaysian Palm Oil Board comes out on Monday morning with their September palm oil data report.
  • Columbus Day holiday in US on Monday. US Grain markets are opened. Financials and currency markets are closed.
  • Last trading day of October soy meal and bean oil is Wednesday October 14th. Futures expire at noon CST
  • Chinese government to issue 3rd quarter GDP on October 19th

o   Economists at ANZ said China’s third quarter GDP growth is likely to have slowed to 6.4%.

  • Argentina president elections on October 25th

o   Peronist presidential candidate Scioli , who is leading in the polls, may favor a Argentina export tax cut of 5%, Argentina presidential elections are on October 25th.

o   Argentina’s leading opposition candidate Macri told farm groups yesterday he would lower soybean export taxes and lift quotas on wheat and corn shipments

  • US EPA reaffirms plan to finalize biofuels plan by the end of November
  • OPEC to meet in early December

USDA’s October supply and demand and production report comes out Friday at 11 am CST.  

  • Estimates are based on what analysts think the USDA will report on Friday .

Estimates for ‘15/16 US corn and soybean production

  • Corn production (21 analysts surveyed) – Average estimate 13.504 BB, range of estimates are 13.283 -13.798 BB. USDA Sept estimate was 13.585 BB
  • Corn yield (21 analysts surveyed) – Average estimate 167.1 BPA, range of estimates are 165.0 -169.5 BPA. USDA Sept estimate was 167.5 BPA
  • Corn harvested acres (20 analysts surveyed) – Average estimate 80.826 MA, range of estimates are 80.430-81.403 MA. USDA Sept estimate was 81.101 MA
  • Soybean production (21 analysts surveyed) – Average estimate 3.908 BB, range of estimates are 3.830-3.975 BB. USDA Sept estimate was 3.935 BB
  • Soybean yield (21 analysts surveyed) – Average estimate 47.2 BPA, range of estimates are 46.5 – 47.7 BPA. USDA Sept estimate was 47.1 BPA
  • Soybean harvested acres (20 analysts surveyed) – Average estimate 82.914 MA, range of estimates are 82.213 – 83.900 MA. USDA Sept estimate was 83.549 MA

Estimates for ‘15/16 US ending stocks

  • Wheat (19 analysts surveyed) – Average estimate is .819 BB, range of estimates are .765 -.891 BB. USDA Sept estimate was .875 BB
  • Corn (20 analysts surveyed) – Average estimate is 1.534 BB, range of estimates are 1.339 -1.750 BB. USDA Sept estimate was 1.592 BB
  • Beans (20 analysts surveyed) – Average estimate is .414 BB, range of estimates are .300 -.475 BB. USDA Sept estimate was .450 BB

Estimates for ‘14/15 world ending stocks:

  • Wheat (8 analysts surveyed) – Average estimate is 211.37 MMT, range of estimates are 210.00 -212.79 MMT. USDA Sept estimate was 211.31 MMT.
  • Corn (7 analysts surveyed) – Average estimate is 196.97 MMT, range of estimates are 195.00 -198.00 MMT. USDA Sept estimate was 197.21 MMT.
  • Beans (8 analysts surveyed) – Average estimate is 78.11 MMT, range of estimates are 77.50- 78.56 MMT. USDA Sept estimate was 78.73 MMT.

Estimates for ‘15/16 world ending stocks

  • Wheat (13 analysts surveyed) – Average estimate 224.76 MMT, range of estimates are 222.19-226.00 MMT . USDA Sept estimate was 226.56 MMT
  • Corn (13 analysts surveyed) – Average estimate 188.73 MMT, range of estimates are 184.85-193.00 MMT . USDA Sept estimate was 189.69 MMT
  • Beans (14 analysts surveyed) – Average estimate 84.41 MMT, range of estimates are 82.00 -86.50 MMT . USDA Sept estimate was 84.98 MMT

Data sources: Dow Jones , Bloomberg, Reuters , DTN news, barchart.com, CME Group and NYSE