News From The Grain Floor 10/07/15

Goldman Sachs / UBS index fund roll for Nov beans and Dec meal and bean oil begins today.

  • They will be rolling long Nov / Dec positions into Jan. Roll runs for 5 days.

Overnight closes

  • SX up 6 at 894
  • CZ up ¾ at 399
  • WZ up 3 ½ at 529 ¾
  • KC WZ up 4 ½ at 520 ¼
  • MWZ up 2 ½ at 543 ¼
  • SMZ up 2.80 at 306.40
  • BOZ up 10 at 2881

Overnight volume

  • SX 10,000
  • CZ 15,552
  • WZ 9,839
  • KC WZ 1,683
  • MWZ 890
  • SMZ 6,220
  • BOZ 10,259

Overnight option volume

  • Corn 6,094
  • Wheat 1,379
  • Beans 2,151
  • Meal 313
  • Bean oil 42

Total EOO’s cleared from previous session

Contract Year Month

Product Desc

P/C Ind

Strike Price

Ex Pit Volume – CME Group

201512

CORN OPTIONS

P

410

642

201512

CORN OPTIONS

P

420

17

Funds

 

COT

COT

COT

 

 

 

 

 

Current

 

22-Sep

29-Sep

to COT

30-Sep

1-Oct

2-Oct

5-Oct

6-Oct

Estimate

Corn

-1375

-2411

-1036

-8000

2000

4000

6000

9000

10589

Wheat

-78152

-68560

9592

7000

4000

-4000

2000

8000

-51560

Soybeans

-57866

-36889

20977

7000

-10000

-5000

7000

4000

-33889

Soymeal

27963

29711

1748

3000

-4000

-3000

3000

0

28711

Soyoil

-32460

-16467

15993

-3000

-1000

6000

6000

1000

-7467

Weather Highlights

South America, frequent rains in South Brazil could create some areas of field flooding over the next 10 days should slow corn/soybean planting and wheat harvesting. However those rains should expand to the North with time (Mato Grosso and Goias). In Argentina, rainfall should be limited in the next 7 to 10 days (except in far northeastern areas)…this will help sunflower and corn planting but the cool temperatures may limit development.

Europe, there has been some talk this week regarding cold temperatures in central Russia (see map). For Russia and Ukraine the talk of dry weather continues.

U.S., mild and dry weather continues which will allow harvest to progress quickly.

News

Dec Euro at 1.1266 down .0017

China markets are closed again today for holiday. Trade resumes tomorrow

Nikkei closes up .75%

Hang Seng closes up 3.1%

Shanghai Index closed for holiday, trade resumes tomorrow

Bank of Japan keeps policy unchanged despite growing signs of trouble with economy

Weekly API energy inventory report came out yesterday afternoon .

  • Crude oil a draw of 1.2 million barrels expecting a build of 2.2 MB

Malaysian palm oil market closed down 53.

American Fats and Oils Association Conference in New York today and tomorrow

India has been a large buyer of Argentine bean oil over the last few days

South Korea NOFI bought 55,000 tons of soy meal from Argentina or Brazil for April shipment

South Korea NOFI canceled tender to buy 12,000 tons of rapeseed meal due to high prices.

Egypt FIHC delayed tender to buy 25,000 tons of bean oil and 9,000 tons of sunflower oil for Dec-Feb shipment

Algeria is in for optional origin wheat for Nov-Dec shipment , Algeria usually buys up to 500,000 tons of wheat in tenders

Thailand canceled tender to buy soymeal for May-June shipment

The Philippines seek 50,000 tons of wheat for March-April shipment

Japan seeks 120,000 tons of feed wheat and 200,000 tons of feed barley via SBS tender for Jan-Feb shipment

Russia’s Ag Min said as of yesterday Russia harvested 98.0 MMT of grain with an average yield of 2.40 TPH. A year ago Russia harvested 100.0 MMT of grain with an average yield of 2.49 TPH

French customs data showed France exported 1.43 MMT of soft wheat outside the EU between July-August up 24% from a year ago

Continued reports of a cut in India’s soybean / oilseed production

Concerns about dryness in Russia and Ukraine continue

Concerns about dryness and hot weather continue in Australia

Dryness in Argentine caused a decrease in wheat planting area.

Brazilian wheat quality declining because of wet conditions.

Today is the fourth day of the Deutsche Bank roll, roll ends tomorrow . They are rolling long Nov 2015 bean positions into Nov 2016 beans.

Deliveries

  • Soy meal 0
  • Bean oil  0
  • Ethanol  0

Moving averages:

  • Nov bean 20 day 879 ¼  
  • Nov bean 50 day 897 ½      
  • Dec corn 20 day 386 ¾  
  • Dec corn 100 day 388 ¾   
  • Dec corn 200 day 398 ¼     
  • Dec wheat 100 day 522
  • Dec wheat 200 day 533 ½
  • Dec KC wheat 100 day 530 ¼        
  • Dec Minneapolis wheat 100 day 558 ½  
  • Dec meal 20 day 307.10
  • Dec meal 50 day 313.70
  • Dec meal 100 day 315.60
  • Dec meal 200 day 316.50
  • Dec bean oil 50 day 2815

Receipt Registrations as of yesterday afternoon:

  • Wheat = 827
  • Oats = 13
  • Corn = 642
  • Ethanol = 30
  • DDGs = 0
  • Beans = 69
  • Bean oil = 3,024
  • Soymeal = 88

o   12 soy meal receipts were canceled yesterday afternoon  out of Owensboro Grain Company , Owensboro KY

  • Rice = 2,616
  • KC wheat = 223
  • Minneapolis wheat =  714

Open interest as of yesterday’s close:

  • Total corn – 1,307,546 open, up 6,918
  • Total soybeans –703,814 open, up 4,869
  • Total soymeal – 378,761 open, up 2,676
  • Total bean oil – 407,947 open, down 608
  • Total wheat – 373,819 open, up 4,484
  • Total KC wheat – 188,967 open, up 981

Upcoming reports/events:  

  • Weekly DOE energy inventory report comes out today at 930 am CST. Expecting

o   Crude a build of 2.0 million barrels

o   Gas unchanged

o   Distillates a draw of 800,000 barrels

  • Weekly US ethanol plant production report comes out today at 930 am CST
  • Weekly US jobless claims report comes out tomorrow at 730 am CST
  • Weekly US export sales report comes out tomorrow at 730 am CST
  • Weekly EIA Nat Gas storage report comes out tomorrow at 930 am CST , expecting +99 BCF
  • CONAB comes out Friday with their first estimates for Brazil’s ‘15/16 soybean and corn crops.
  • USDA comes out Friday at 11 am CST with October supply and demand and crop production report. USDA September US crop estimates were

o   US corn crop estimated at 13.585 BB

o   US corn yield estimated at 167.5 BPA

o   US bean crop estimated at 3.935 BB

o   US bean yield estimated at 47.1 BPA

  • Surveyors SGS and Intertek Agri Services come out over the weekend with their Malaysian Oct 1-10 palm oil export estimates
  • Columbus Day holiday in US on Monday. US Grain markets are opened. Financials and currency markets are closed.
  • Last trading day of October soy meal and bean oil is Wednesday October 14th. Futures expire at noon CST
  • Chinese government to issue 3rd quarter GDP on October 19th

o   Economists at ANZ said China’s third quarter GDP growth is likely to have slowed to 6.4%.

  • Argentina president elections on October 25th

o   Peronist presidential candidate Scioli , who is leading in the polls, may favor a Argentina export tax cut of 5%, Argentina presidential elections are on October 25th.

o   Argentina’s leading opposition candidate Macri told farm groups yesterday he would lower soybean export taxes and lift quotas on wheat and corn shipments

  • US EPA reaffirms plan to finalize biofuels plan by the end of November
  • OPEC to meet in early December

Data sources: Dow Jones , Bloomberg, Reuters , DTN news, barchart.com, CME Group and NYSE