News From The Grain Floor 10/06/15

Overnight closes

  • SX down a ½ at 883 ¾
  • CZ up 1 ¾ at 398 ¼
  • WZ up 4 ½ at 520
  • KC WZ up 6 at 508
  • MWZ up 5 at 535 ¾
  • SMZ up .50 at 304.30
  • BOZ down 16 at 2850

3,000 Dec wheat traded at 5.18 to 5.22 between 730-745 am CST .

Overnight volume

  • SX 11,920
  • CZ 16,455
  • WZ 6,639
  • KC WZ 1,364
  • MWZ 425
  • SMZ 5,485
  • BOZ 11,598

Overnight option volume

  • Corn 8,346
  • Wheat 730
  • Beans 1,671
  • Meal 37
  • Bean oil 253

Funds:

 

COT

COT

COT

 

 

 

 

Current

 

22-Sep

29-Sep

to COT

30-Sep

1-Oct

2-Oct

5-Oct

Estimate

Corn

-1375

-2411

-1036

-8000

2000

4000

6000

1589

Wheat

-78152

-68560

9592

7000

4000

-4000

2000

-59560

Soybeans

-57866

-36889

20977

7000

-10000

-5000

7000

-37889

Soymeal

27963

29711

1748

3000

-4000

-3000

3000

28711

Soyoil

-32460

-16467

15993

-3000

-1000

6000

6000

-8467

Weather:

In the US, 27% of corn and 42% of beans are harvested as of Sunday…and 49% of winter wheat is planted. Weather in the next 10 days should help harvest and planting further.

In South America, rains should affect the wettest areas of southern Brazil starting tomorrow with some possible pockets of field flooding which could slow plantings. The dry conditions in the  

North (Goias and Mato Grosso) is expected to break soon which will aid early planting. See below for maps.

News

Dec Euro at 1.1228 up .0037

China’s Golden Week, China markets will be closed through Wednesday, Trading resumes Thursday  

Nikkei closes up 1.00%

Hang Seng closes down .1%

Shanghai Index closed for holiday

BOJ 2 day policy meeting started last night/this morning.

China grain markets closed for holiday

Malaysian palm oil market closed down 45

Taiwan bought 89,150 tons of US wheat for Nov-Dec shipment

South Korea Daehan bought 25,300 tons of US milling wheat for Jan shipment

South Korea Daehan bought 50,000 tons of Australian milling wheat for March shipment

South Korea NOFI seeks 55,000 tons of optional origin soy meal for April shipment

South Korea NOFI seeks 12,000 tons of rapeseed meal for Dec shipment

Japan seeks 119,141 tons of US, Canadian, and Australian wheat for Dec shipment

Today is the third day of the Deutsche Bank roll. They are rolling long Nov 2015 soybean positions into Nov 2016. Roll ends on Thursday.

Weekly US crop progress report from yesterday afternoon

Corn

  • Condition 68% good to excellent, unchanged from a week ago and vs. 74% good to excellent a year ago
  • Harvested 27% (expecting 28-32% complete) vs. 18% a week ago and vs. 32% five year average  

Soybeans

  • Condition 64% good to excellent, up 2% from a week ago and vs. 73% good to excellent a year ago
  • Harvested 42% (expecting 37-43% complete) vs. 21% a week ago and vs. 32% five year average
  • Dropping leaves 85% vs. 74% a week ago and vs. 83% five year average  

Winter wheat

  • Planted 42% (expecting about 53% complete) vs. 31% a week ago and vs. 51% five year average
  • Emerged 20% vs. 7% a week ago and vs. 22% five year average 

Rice

  • Harvested 78% vs. 69% a week ago and vs. 71% five year average  

Cotton

  • Condition 48% good to excellent, down 2% from a week ago and vs. 47% a year ago
  • Harvested 16% vs. 11% a week ago and vs. 18% five year average
  • Bolls opening 77% vs. 69% a week ago and vs. 78% five year average

 Deliveries

  • Soy meal 85 with the date at 9/24/15

o   Customer JP Morgan stopped 85

  • Bean oil 93 with the date at 10/01/15
  • Ethanol 30 with the date at 10/01/15

o   House ADM issued 1

Receipt Registrations as of yesterday afternoon:

  • Wheat = 827
  • Oats = 13
  • Corn = 642
  • Ethanol = 30

o   30 new ethanol receipts were registered yesterday afternoon

  • DDGs = 0
  • Beans = 69
  • Bean oil = 3,024
  • Soymeal = 100

o   10 soy meal receipts were canceled yesterday afternoon out of Dreyfus Claypool , Claypool IN

  • Rice = 2,616
  • KC wheat = 223
  • Minneapolis wheat =  714

o   9 Minneapolis wheat receipts canceled yesterday afternoon

Open interest as of yesterday’s close:

  • Total corn – 1,300,801 tons down 4,226
  • Total soybeans – 698,893 open, up 4,657
  • Total soymeal – 376,183 open, up 6,599
  • Total bean oil – 408,832 open, up 3,832
  • Total wheat – 369,342 open, down 2,460
  • Total KC wheat – 187,986 open, up 1,508

Upcoming reports/events:  

  • Weekly API energy inventory report comes out tomorrow at 330 pm CST.
  • American Fats and Oils Association Conference in New York tomorrow and Thursday.
  • Weekly DOE energy inventory report comes out tomorrow at 930 am CST
  • Weekly US ethanol plant production report comes out tomorrow at 930 am CST
  • Goldman Sachs / UBS index fund roll for Nov beans and Dec meal and bean oil begins tomorrow. They will be rolling long Nov / Dec positions into Jan. Roll runs for 5 days.
  • CONAB comes out Friday with their first estimates for Brazil’s ‘15/16 soybean and corn crops.
  • USDA comes out Friday at 11 am CST with October supply and demand and crop production report. USDA September US crop estimates were

o   US corn crop estimated at 13.585 BB

o   US corn yield estimated at 167.5 BPA

o   US bean crop estimated at 3.935 BB

o   US bean yield estimated at 47.1 BPA

  • Surveyors SGS and Intertek Agri Services come out over the weekend with their Malaysian Oct 1-10 palm oil export estimates
  • Chinese government to issue 3rd quarter GDP on October 19th

o   Economists at ANZ said China’s third quarter GDP growth is likely to have slowed to 6.4%.

  • Argentina president elections on October 25th

o   Peronist presidential candidate Scioli , who is leading in the polls, may favor a Argentina export tax cut of 5%, Argentina presidential elections are on October 25th.

o   Argentina’s leading opposition candidate Macri told farm groups yesterday he would lower soybean export taxes and lift quotas on wheat and corn shipments

  • US EPA reaffirms plan to finalize biofuels plan by the end of November
  • OPEC to meet in early December

Data sources: Dow Jones , Bloomberg, Reuters , DTN news, barchart.com, CME Group and NYSE