News From The Grain Floor 10/05/15

Egypt GASC bought 235,000 tons of Ukrainian and Russian wheat for November shipment over the weekend.

  • Bought 60,000 tons of wheat from Ukraine
  • Bought 175,000 tons of wheat from Russia

Overnight closes

  • SX up 4 at 878 ¼
  • CZ up 1 at 390 ¼
  • WZ up 4 ¼ at 517 ½
  • KC WZ up 3 ¾ at 504 ¼
  • MWZ up 3 at 530 ¼
  • SMZ up .90 at 302.10
  • BOZ up 36 at 2842

Overnight volume

  • SX 11,844
  • CZ 10,089
  • WZ 6,134
  • KC WZ 518
  • MWZ 185
  • SMZ 5,467
  • BOZ 14,692

Overnight option volume

  • Corn 5,463
  • Wheat 288
  • Beans 3,346
  • Meal 20
  • Bean oil 1,062

Total EOO’s cleared from previous session

Contract Year Month

Product Desc

P/C Ind

Strike Price

Ex Pit Volume – CME Group

201512

CORN OPTIONS

P

410

112

201512

CHICAGO SRW WHEAT OPTIONS

P

520

23

201512

CHICAGO SRW WHEAT OPTIONS

P

530

23

Weather:

In Brazil, most of South Brazil and areas of center west and southeast were wetter than normal in the past 30 days suggesting dryness may be ideal for planting of corn and beans as well as wheat harvesting. However, to the north of Goias and Mato Grosso, rains are needed. In Argentina, a few showers will take place but amounts over 0.50” will be limited to far southern wheat areas and far northern corn/sunflower areas. Temperatures in these areas stay much cooler than normal. See below for maps.

Funds/COT comment

The latest COT saw some short covering in the soy complex and wheat while the corn position stayed unchanged near flat. The wheat short is still rather large (68k in the COT and 61k estimated as of this morning)…in beans, funds covered 20k shorts week to week and were still -37k in the COT (-44k estimate as of this morning)…the soy oil overall short was cut in half to 16k with oilshare rebounding while the meal position stayed near 30k longs still.

 

COT

COT

COT

 

 

 

Current

COT Record

 

COT Record

 

 

22-Sep

29-Sep

to COT

30-Sep

1-Oct

2-Oct

Estimate

Long

 

Short

 

Corn

-1375

-2411

-1036

-8000

2000

4000

-4411

9/28/2010

372756

-240854

10/29/2013

Wheat

-78152

-68560

9592

7000

4000

-4000

-61560

10/24/2006

30146

-110792

5/5/2015

Soybeans

-57866

-36889

20977

7000

-10000

-5000

-44889

5/1/2012

224822

-92991

5/26/2015

Soymeal

27963

29711

1748

3000

-4000

-3000

25711

11/11/2014

70115

-22711

4/14/2015

Soyoil

-32460

-16467

15993

-3000

-1000

6000

-14467

4/10/2007

81193

-80562

1/21/2014

News

Dec Euro at 1.1227 down .0013

China’s Golden Week, China markets will be closed through Wednesday

Nikkei closes up 1.58% – Bank of Japan two day policy meeting begins tomorrow, some analysts expecting BOJ to take measures to stimulate economy.

Hang Seng markets closes up 1.6%

Shanghai Index closed for holiday

Analysts expect China to take measures to boost their economy.

Some analysts no longer expect US Fed to raise interest rates this year, expecting they will not raise interest rates until March 2016, due to poor unemployment report Friday.

China grain markets closed for holiday

Malaysian palm oil market closed up 29.

American Fats and Oils Association Conference in New York this week.

Malaysian Palm Oil Board to temporarily halt palm product imports from Indonesia due to high stocks levels.  

Philippines passed on soymeal tender for Nov / Dec shipment on Friday.

Tunisia bought 37,000 tons of Argentine meal for Nov / Dec shipment

South Korea seeking soymeal for Feb / March shipment.

Philippines seeking wheat for March / April shipment.

Iraq seeks 50,000 tons of optional origin wheat

Jordan canceled tender to sell 50,000 tons of hard milling wheat

Bangladesh seeking Brazilian corn

India seeking Brazilian corn

Hearing China’s soybean needs are mostly covered for October and November and 35% covered for December.

Some analysts expecting 2015 US soybean yield to be 49-50 BPA , vs. USDA September estimate of 47.1 BPA, vs. FC Stone estimate of 46.9 BPA, and vs. Informa estimate of 47.2 BPA.

AgRural said Brazil has sold 37% of their ‘15/16 bean crop vs. 13% sold a year ago

Cepea estimated Brazil’s 2015 corn exports at 26.7 MMT

Brazil federal agricultural agents ended two week strike on Friday night.

Hearing Argentina exported 1.67 MMT of beans in September vs. 1.5 MMT in August and vs. 350,000 tons in September 2014

  • Exported 1.2 MMT of soybeans to China vs. 1.05 MMT in August and vs. 300,000 tons in Sept 2014.

Hearing Argentina exported 3.87 MMT of soymeal in September vs. 3.1 MMT in August and vs. 2.4 MMT in September 2014

Hearing Argentina exported 775,000 tons of bean oil in September vs. 436,000 tons in August and vs. 320,000 tons in Sept 2014.

Strategie Grains estimated EU 2016 rapeseed area 6.5 MH vs. 2015 area of 6.4 MH

Strategie Grains estimated EU 2016 sunflower area at 4.2 MH unchanged from 2015 area

Strategie Grains estimated EU 2016 soybean area at 800,000 hectares vs. 2015 area of 900,000 hectares.

Russia exported 4.3 MMT of grain in September vs. 4.48 MMT in August and vs. 4.04 MMT of grain in September 2014

Russia exported 11.56 MMT of grain between July-September vs. 12.61 MMT a year ago

FranceAgriMer said on Friday that 3% of France’s soft wheat crop has been planted vs. 7% a year ago

FranceAgriMer said on Friday that 9% of France’s corn crop has been planted vs. 4% the week before and vs. 2% a year ago

India’s weekly summer crop planting progress from Friday

  • Rice planted on 37.59 MH vs. 37.52 MH a year ago
  • Pulses planted on 11.46 MH vs. 10.26 MH a year ago
  • Coarse cereals planted on 18.31 MH vs. 17.84 MH a year ago
  • Oilseeds planted on 18.46 MH vs. 17.82 MH a year ago

COPA said for the week ending Sept 30th Canadian crushers crushed 165,368 tons of canola up 23.8% from a week ago

COPA said for the week ending Sept 30th Canadian crushers crushed 30,850 tons of soybeans down 20.6% from a week ago

19 out of the 28 EU member states have requested to opt out from growing GM crops.

Egypt’s Trade Ministry lifted ban on rice exports

Favorable harvest weather in US Midwest.

Concerns about dryness continue for Ukrainian, Russian, and Australian wheat growing areas.

Today is the second day of the Deutsche Bank roll. They are rolling long Nov 2015 soybean positions into Nov 2016. Roll ends on Thursday.

Deliveries

  • Soy meal 100 with the date at 9/24/15

o   Customer JP Morgan stopped 150

  • Bean oil 150 with the date at 10/01/15

Moving averages:

  • Nov bean 20 day 877 ½
  • Nov bean 50 day 899 ½      
  • Dec corn 20 day 383 ¾  
  • Dec corn 50 day 380       
  • Dec corn 100 day 388 ½  
  • Dec corn 200 day 398 ¾    
  • Dec wheat 100 day 522
  • Dec KC wheat 50 day 496 ¾       
  • Dec Minneapolis wheat 50 day 524
  • Dec meal 20 day 307.40
  • Dec bean oil 50 day 2823

Receipt Registrations as of Friday’s afternoon:

  • Wheat = 827
  • Oats = 13
  • Corn = 642
  • Ethanol = 0
  • DDGs = 0
  • Beans = 69
  • Bean oil = 3,024
  • Soymeal = 110
  • Rice = 2,616
  • KC wheat = 223
  • Minneapolis wheat =  723

o   50 Minneapolis wheat receipts were canceled Friday afternoon

Open interest as of Friday’s close:

  • Total corn – 1,306,175 open, down 2,142
  • Total soybeans – 694,267 open, up 805
  • Total soymeal – 369,588 open, up 1,966
  • Total bean oil – 405,000 open, up 5,836
  • Total wheat – 371,871 open, up 3,986
  • Total KC wheat – 186,478 open, down 225

Upcoming reports/events:  

  • Weekly US export inspections report comes out today at 10 am CST
  • Weekly US crop progress report comes out on today at 3 pm CST. Expecting

o   Corn harvest 29-32% complete

o   Bean harvest 37-42% complete

  • Weekly API energy inventory report comes out tomorrow at 330 pm CST.
  • Goldman Sachs / UBS index fund roll for Nov beans and Dec meal and bean oil begins Wednesday. They will be rolling long Nov / Dec positions into Jan. Roll runs for 5 days.
  • CONAB comes out Friday with their first estimates for Brazil’s ‘15/16 soybean and corn crops.
  • USDA comes out Friday at 11 am CST with October supply and demand and crop production report. USDA September US crop estimates were

o   US corn crop estimated at 13.585 BB

o   US corn yield estimated at 167.5 BPA

o   US bean crop estimated at 3.935 BB

o   US bean yield estimated at 47.1 BPA

  • Surveyors SGS and Intertek Agri Services come out over the weekend with their Malaysian Oct 1-10 palm oil export estimates
  • Chinese government to issue 3rd quarter GDP on October 19th

o   Economists at ANZ said China’s third quarter GDP growth is likely to have slowed to 6.4%.

  • Argentina president elections on October 25th

o   Peronist presidential candidate Scioli , who is leading in the polls, may favor a Argentina export tax cut of 5%, Argentina presidential elections are on October 25th.

o   Argentina’s leading opposition candidate Macri told farm groups yesterday he would lower soybean export taxes and lift quotas on wheat and corn shipments

  • US EPA reaffirms plan to finalize biofuels plan by the end of November
  • OPEC to meet in early December

Data sources: Dow Jones , Bloomberg, Reuters , DTN news, barchart.com, CME Group and NYSE