News From The Grain Floor 10/02/15

FC Stone came out yesterday about 4 pm CST with their 2015 US crop estimate updates – See attachment for state by state breakdown

  • US corn crop at 13.541 BB vs. previous estimate of 13.457 BB
  • US corn yield estimated at 167.0 BPA vs. previous estimate of 165.9 BPA
  • US bean crop estimated at 3.919 BB vs. previous estimate of 3.797 BB
  • US bean yield estimated at 46.9 BPA vs. previous estimate of 45.4 BPA

Informa comes out today at 1030 am CST with their 2015 US crop estimate updates. Previous estimates from Informa were

  • US corn crop estimated at 13.688 BB vs. USDA September estimate of 13.585 BB
  • US corn yield estimated at 168.8 BPA vs. USDA September estimate of 167.5 BPA
  • US bean crop estimated at 3.924 BB vs. USDA September estimate of
  • US bean yield estimated at 47.0 BPA

Today is the first day of the Deutsche Bank roll. They will be rolling long Nov 2015 bean positions into Nov 2016 beans.  DB roll runs for 5 days.

Overnight closes

  • SX down 1 ¾ at 875 ½
  • CZ down 2 ¼ at 386 ½
  • WZ down 3 ¼ at 515
  • KC WZ down 2 ½ at 505
  • MWZ down 2 at 529 ¼
  • SMZ down .20 at 303.70
  • BOZ down 6 at 2726

Overnight volume

  • SX 10,522
  • CZ 18,432
  • WZ 8,653
  • KC WZ 1,587
  • MWZ 340
  • SMZ 4,281
  • BOZ 6,982

Overnight option volume

  • Corn 3,761
  • Wheat 3,766
  • Beans 2,541
  • Meal 249
  • Bean oil 2

Total EOO’s cleared from previous session

  • none

Funds

 

COT

COT

COT

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Current

 

15-Sep

22-Sep

to COT

23-Sep

24-Sep

25-Sep

28-Sep

29-Sep

30-Sep

1-Oct

Estimate

Corn

659

-1375

-2034

3000

-2000

8000

-6000

5000

-8000

2000

625

Wheat

-83660

-78152

5508

7000

-4000

4000

-3000

0

7000

4000

-63152

Soybeans

-41433

-57866

-16433

-2000

5000

12000

-7000

6000

7000

-10000

-46866

Soymeal

44863

27963

-16900

-4000

0

4000

-3000

2000

3000

-4000

25963

Soyoil

-30717

-32460

-1743

2000

5000

6000

-6000

4000

-3000

-1000

-25460

News

Dec Euro at 1.1293 up .0098

China’s Golden Week, China markets will be closed through Wednesday October 7th

Nikkei closes up .02%

Hang Seng markets closes up 3.2%

Shanghai Index closed for holiday

China’s government taking measures to boost economy.

US September unemployment report came out this morning at 730 am CST

  • September nonfarm payrolls +142K expecting +200K
  • September unemployment rate at 5.1% , as expected and unchanged from August.
  • August nonfarm payrolls revised to +136K from +173,000
  • July nonfarm payrolls revised to +223,000 from +245,000

China grain markets closed for holiday

Malaysian palm oil market closed down 27.

South Korea bought 5,000 non GMO soybeans for Nov-Dec shipment

Indonesia bought 60,000 tons of Australian wheat this week for Dec-Jan shipment

Thailand has been buying Black Sea area wheat for October –March shipment. Bought about 150,000 tons of BS wheat in September

South Korea seeking soy meal for Feb-March shipment

Philippines seeking soy meal for Nov-Dec shipment

Philippines seeking 50,000 tons of milling wheat for March-April shipment

Concerns about dry weather in Black Sea area continues

Concerns about dry weather in parts of Australia continues.

Concerns about dry weather in Malaysia and Indonesia continues.

Stats Canada updated ‘15/16 Canadian crop estimates this morning.

  • All wheat crop at 26.06 MMT vs. average estimate of 25.1 MMT vs. August estimate of 24.625 MMT and vs. 2014 crop of 29.419
  • Durum at 4.74 MMT vs. average estimate of 4.7 MMT vs. August estimate of 4.467 MMT and vs. 2014 crop of 5.1927 MMT
  • Canola at 14.3  MMT vs. average estimate of 14.5 MMT vs. August estimate of 13.343 MMT and vs. 2014 crop of 16.41 MMT
  • Oats at 3.29 MMT vs. average estimate of 3.4 MMT vs. August estimate of 3.31 MMT and vs. 2014 crop of 2.979
  • Barley at 7.61 MMT vs. average estimate of 7.3 MMT vs. August estimate of 7.305 MMT and vs. 2014 crop of 7.119 MMT
  • Corn at 12.2 MMT vs. average estimate of 12.3 MMT vs. August estimate of 12.312 MMT and vs. 2014 crop of 11.4868 MMT
  • Beans at  5.928 MMT vs. average estimate of 5.8 MMT vs. August estimate of 5.8569 MMT and vs. 2014 crop of 6.0486 MMT

Deliveries

  • Soy meal 110 with the date at 9/14/15
  • Bean oil 689 with the date at 9/30/15

Moving averages:

  • Nov bean 20 day 877
  • Nov bean 50 day 901 ¼     
  • Dec corn 20 day 382 ¼  
  • Dec corn 50 day 380 ¼       
  • Dec corn 100 day 388 ¼
  • Dec corn 200 day 398 ¾    
  • Dec wheat 100 day 522
  • Dec KC wheat 50 day 497 ½      
  • Dec Minneapolis wheat 50 day 524 ½    
  • Dec meal 20 day 307.70
  • Dec bean oil 20 day 2701

Receipt Registrations as of yesterday afternoon: –  No changes.

  • Wheat = 827
  • Oats = 13
  • Corn = 642
  • Ethanol = 0
  • DDGs = 0
  • Beans = 69
  • Bean oil = 3,024
  • Soymeal = 110
  • Rice = 2,616
  • KC wheat = 223
  • Minneapolis wheat =  773

Open interest as of yesterday’s close:

  • Total corn – 1,308,367 open, up 1,514
  • Total soybeans – 693,529 open, down 10, 781
  • Total soymeal – 367,695 open, down 337
  • Total bean oil – 399,260 open, down 2,934
  • Total wheat – 367,982 open, up 687
  • Total KC wheat – 186,712 open, up 827

Upcoming reports/events:  

  • Weekly COT report comes out today at 230 pm CST
  • American Fats and Oils Association Conference in New York next week.
  • Weekly US export inspections report comes out Monday at 10 am CST
  • Weekly US crop progress report comes out on Monday at 3 pm CST
  • Goldman Sachs / UBS index fund roll for Nov beans and Dec meal and bean oil begins Wednesday October 7th. They will be rolling long Nov / Dec positions into Jan. Roll runs for 5 days.
  • CONAB comes out Friday October 9th with their first estimates for Brazil’s ‘15/16 soybean and corn crops.
  • USDA comes out Friday October 9th at 11 am CST with October supply and demand and crop production report. USDA September US crop estimates were

o   US corn crop estimated at 13.585 BB

o   US corn yield estimated at 167.5 BPA

o   US bean crop estimated at 3.935 BB

o   US bean yield estimated at 47.1 BPA

  • Surveyors SGS and Intertek Agri Services come out on October 10th with their Malaysian Oct 1-10 palm oil export estimates
  • Chinese government to issue 3rd quarter GDP on October 19th

o   Economists at ANZ said China’s third quarter GDP growth is likely to have slowed to 6.4%.

  • Argentina president elections on October 25th

o   Peronist presidential candidate Scioli , who is leading in the polls, may favor a Argentina export tax cut of 5%, Argentina presidential elections are on October 25th.

o   Argentina’s leading opposition candidate Macri told farm groups yesterday he would lower soybean export taxes and lift quotas on wheat and corn shipments

  • US EPA reaffirms plan to finalize biofuels plan by the end of November
  • OPEC to meet in early December

 

 

Data sources: Dow Jones , Bloomberg, Reuters , DTN news, barchart.com, CME Group and NYSE